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An Italian Chart for Cardiovascular Risk Estimate Including High-Density Lipoprotein-Cholesterol

  • Original Research Article
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Disease Management & Health Outcomes

Abstract

Background

Most current clinical guidelines on primary coronary heart disease prevention emphasize the importance of risk stratification. Tools for cardiovascular risk estimation have been produced in many countries, although their use has been limited. The availability of new tools that include additional risk factors might lead to their more widespread use. The objective of our study was to produce an updated version of an existing chart for the estimation of cardiovascular disease risk using Italian population data and including high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) levels as a predictor.

Methods

Data were analyzed from nine population studies run in Italy, which included a total of 8054 men and 3206 women aged 45–74 years. The individuals included in these studies had no history of cardiovascular events or diabetes mellitus.

During a mean follow-up of 10 years (range 5–15), incidence data were collected for non-fatal and fatal cases of major cardiovascular diseases (coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, and peripheral artery diseases). Findings for major cardiovascular risk factors (i.e. sex, age, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol levels, HDL-C levels, smoking habits) at study entry and their relationship with the occurrence of events during the follow-up were used to develop models for the prediction of cardiovascular events. These were multivariate models, based on a log-linear model incorporating the Weibull distribution, and separate models were developed for men and women.

Results

In 10 years, 461 new cardiovascular events occurred among men and 147 among women. The models showed good predictive power, with around 30% of events located in the upper decile of the estimated risk, and around 50% in the upper quintile of estimated risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, calculated based on internal validation only, was 72%, indicating favorable diagnostic performance of the models.

The independent predictive power of HDL-C was strong, with 1% increase in HDL-C level being associated with a decrease in the incidence of cardiovascular diseases of almost 1% among men and almost 2% among women.

A chart accommodating sex, age, total cholesterol level, HDL-C level, systolic blood pressure, and cigarette consumption was subsequently produced. The inclusion of HDL-C levels in this chart was novel for a risk chart in Italy, as it had not been included in previous editions of the same tool. A special feature of this chart was a new section dealing with the estimate of the ‘relative risk,’ defined by the ratio of absolute risk to the risk expected on the basis of the age, sex, and average age-specific risk factor levels of the involved populations.

Conclusions

The cardiovascular risk assessment devised in the current study represents an improved means for physicians to determine cardiovascular risk and discuss the risk with patients. The chart could be used in countries where the background risk is similar to that of the Italian population; however, external validation of the model is required to adequately assess transferability, and until then the chart should be used with caution in non-Italian populations. Compared with earlier tools, it has the advantage of including HDL-C levels as a predictor of cardiovascular risk.

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Acknowledgments

Sheridan Henness and Siobhan Ward of Wolters Kluwer Health Medical Communications provided English language assistance and advice on the preparation of this article for submission. Funding for this assistance was provided by Merck Sharp & Dohme, Italy.

The activity of the Research Group for the Estimate of Cardiovascular Risk in Italy and the production of the chart and of this report were sponsored by a scientific-educational grant from Merck Sharpe & Dohme, Italy, based in Rome.

At the time of the research, the Group included Enrico Agabiti-Rosei (University of Brescia, Italy), Gianfranco Botta (MSD Italy, Rome, Italy), Luigi Carratelli (MSD, Rome, Italy), Giuseppe Cavera (Villa Sofia Hospital, Palermo, Italy), Ada Dormi (University of Bologna, Italy), Antonio Gaddi (University of Bologna, Italy), Mariapaola Lanti (Association for Cardiac Research, Rome, Italy), Mario Mancini (University of Naples, Italy), Alessandro Menotti (Association for Cardiac Research, Rome, Italy) Mario Motolese (Centro per la Lotta contro l’Infarto, Rome, Italy), Maria Lorenza Muiesan (University of Brescia, Italy), Sandro Muntoni (University of Cagliari, Italy), Sergio Muntoni (Association MEDICO, Cagliari, Italy), Alberto Notarbartolo (University of Palermo, Italy), Pierluigi Prati (Centro per la Lotta contro l’Infarto, Rome, Italy), Stefano Remiddi (MSD Italy, Rome, Italy), Alberto Zanchetti (University of Milan, Italy)

The prototype of the chart was created by Medrisk srl, Rome, Italy (medrisk@tin.it).

Part of the data reported here were published, in Italian, in the proceedings of the Congress “Conoscere e Curare il Cuore 2007,” organized in Florence, Italy by the Centro per la Lotta contro l’Infarto, Rome, Italy.

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Correspondence to Alessandro Menotti MD PhD.

Structure of the Chart

Structure of the Chart

The chart (see figures A1, A2, A3, A4, A5, and A6) allows the estimation of the 10-year risk of developing a first major cardiovascular event in cardiovascular- and diabetes-free subjects as a function of the six chosen risk factors.

Fig. A1
figure A1

Estimation of the 10-year risk (as a function of six risk factors) of developing a first major cardiovascular event using Italian population data, in women aged (a) 45–49 years and (b) 50–54 years. 1 Represents the 10-year relative risk of a major cardiovascular event compared with a person at average risk, for the same sex and age class.

Fig. A2
figure A2

Estimation of the 10-year risk (as a function of six risk factors) of developing a first major cardiovascular event using Italian population data, in women aged (a) 55–59 years and (b) 60–64 years. 1 Represents the 10-year relative risk of a major cardiovascular event compared with a person at average risk, for the same sex and age class.

Fig. A3
figure A3

Estimation of the 10-year risk (as a function of six risk factors) of developing a first major cardiovascular event using Italian population data, in women aged (a) 65–69 years and (b) 70–74 years. 1 Represents the 10-year relative risk of a major cardiovascular event compared with a person at average risk, for the same sex and age class.

Fig. A4
figure A4

Estimation of the 10-year risk (as a function of six risk factors) of developing a first major cardiovascular event using Italian population data, in men aged (a) 45–49 years and (b) 50–54 years. 1 Represents the 10-year relative risk of a major cardiovascular event compared with a person at average risk, for the same sex and age class.

Fig. A5
figure A5

Estimation of the 10-year risk (as a function of six risk factors) of developing a first major cardiovascular event using Italian population data, in men aged (a) 55–59 years and (b) 60–64 years. 1 Represents the 10-year relative risk of a major cardiovascular event compared with a person at average risk, for the same sex and age class.

Fig. A6
figure A6

Estimation of the 10-year risk (as a function of six risk factors) of developing a first major cardiovascular event using Italian population data, in women aged (a) 65–69 years and (b) 70–74 years. 1 Represents the 10-year relative risk of a major cardiovascular event compared with a person at average risk, for the same sex and age class.

The chart has been built creating a number of cells offering all the possible combinations of the six risk factors, subdivided in classes, as follows: two classes for sex (males and females); six classes for age (45–49; 50–54; 55–59; 60–64; 65–69; 70–74 years); four classes for cigarette smoking (0; 1–9; 10–19; ≥20 cigarettes per day); four classes of systolic blood pressure (<129; 130–149; 150–169; ≥170 mmHg); five classes of total cholesterol (<180; 200–219; 220–259; 260–299; ≥300 mg/dL); four classes of HDL-C (<30; 30–39; 40–49; ≥50 mg/dL). For age, the central values of the several classes are 47.5, 52.5, 57.5, 62.5, 67.5, and 72.5 years. For cigarette consumption, the central values of the classes are 0, 5, 15, and 25 cigarettes per day. For systolic blood pressure, the central values of the classes are 120, 140, 160, and 180 mmHg. For total cholesterol, the central values of the classes are 160, 200, 240, 280, and 320 mg/dL. For HDL-C, the central values of the classes are 25, 35, 45, and 55 mg/dL. Estimates of risk for each cell have been made using the central value of each class.

The estimate of the absolute risk was distributed in a number of cells, separately for men and women, with different colors corresponding to the following classes of risk: <5% in 10 years; 5–9%; 10–14%; 15–19%; 20–29%, ≥30%. In the original chart, another parallel series of cells was produced with the estimate of the so called ‘relative risk,’ that is the ratio between the observed (absolute) risk and that of a person of the same sex and age, carrying the mean sex- and age-specific levels of risk factors in the general population. The relative risk, labelled with a number of different colors, was classified as <1 time; 1–2 times; 2–3 times; 3–4 times, 4–5 times; and ≥5 times, referred to the reference subject. These levels represent multiples of risk compared with a person at average risk, for the same sex and age class. Because of this special feature, the relative risk section is reproduced here.

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Menotti, A., Lanti, M. An Italian Chart for Cardiovascular Risk Estimate Including High-Density Lipoprotein-Cholesterol. Dis-Manage-Health-Outcomes 16, 183–197 (2008). https://doi.org/10.2165/00115677-200816030-00005

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