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Bayesian Inference for Functional Response in a Stochastic Predator–Prey System

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Abstract

We present a Bayesian method for functional response parameter estimation starting from time series of field data on predator–prey dynamics. Population dynamics is described by a system of stochastic differential equations in which behavioral stochasticities are represented by noise terms affecting each population as well as their interaction. We focus on the estimation of a behavioral parameter appearing in the functional response of predator to prey abundance when a small number of observations is available. To deal with small sample sizes, latent data are introduced between each pair of field observations and are considered as missing data. The method is applied to both simulated and observational data. The results obtained using different numbers of latent data are compared with those achieved following a frequentist approach. As a case study, we consider an acarine predator–prey system relevant to biological control problems.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Dipartimento GESAF, Università di Reggio Calabria, Piazza S. Francesco di Sales 4, 89061, Gallina di Reggio Calabria, Italy

    Gianni Gilioli

  2. CNR-IMATI, Via Bassini 15, 20133, Milano, Italy

    Sara Pasquali & Fabrizio Ruggeri

Authors
  1. Gianni Gilioli
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  2. Sara Pasquali
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  3. Fabrizio Ruggeri
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Correspondence to Sara Pasquali.

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Gilioli, G., Pasquali, S. & Ruggeri, F. Bayesian Inference for Functional Response in a Stochastic Predator–Prey System. Bull. Math. Biol. 70, 358–381 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-007-9256-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-007-9256-3

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