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Modelling bicycle use intention: the role of perceptions

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Abstract

Users’ perceptions are identified as key elements to understand bicycle use, whose election cannot be explained with usual mobility variables and socio-economic characteristics. A hybrid model is proposed to model the intention of bicycle use; it combines a structural equations model that captures intentions and a choice model. The framework is applied to a case of a university campus in Madrid that is studying a new internal bike system. Results show that four latent variables (convenience, pro-bike, physical determinants and external restrictions) help explaining intention to use bike, representing a number of factors that are linked to individual perceptions.

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Notes

  1. Several actions were carried out to limit the effect of repeated observations and possible overestimation of certain statistics. A correlation panel analysis was performed among duplicate observations using the test Wooldridge with the software STRATA. The results indicated that the serial correlation levels were low. When assessing the logit model, estimators were applied with a Panel- Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) to correct the effects of these autocorrelations. In our study data showed no correlation among alternatives nor heteroscedasticity, so we did not go beyond model structure (1)–(3) to keep the analysis simple.

  2. Leisure purpose was introduced as an attribute or factor because non-commuters trips are residuals, which prevented the estimation of a purpose specific model.

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Acknowledgments

Prof. Jara-Diaz acknowledges partial funding of Fondecyt, Chile, Grant 1120316, and the Institute for Complex Engineering Systems, grants ICM: P-05-004-F and CONICYT: FBO16. Alvaro Fernandez Heredia and Andres Monzon acknowledge partial funding of IDAE (Spanish Institute for Energy Efficiency), CRTM (Transport Authority of Madrid) and the Municipality of Madrid. We are grateful to the three unknown referees for their useful comments; remaining errors are, of course, our responsibility.

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  1. Civil Engineering Department, Universidad Europea Calle Tajo s/n, 28690, Villaviciosa de Odón, Spain

    Álvaro Fernández-Heredia

  2. Transport Systems Division, Universidad de Chile, Av. Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile

    Sergio Jara-Díaz

  3. Transport Department, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Calle Profesor Aranguren s/n, 28040, Madrid, Spain

    Andrés Monzón

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  1. Álvaro Fernández-Heredia
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Fernández-Heredia, Á., Jara-Díaz, S. & Monzón, A. Modelling bicycle use intention: the role of perceptions. Transportation 43, 1–23 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-014-9559-9

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