Abstract
Ocean-based industries provide employment for nearly 30 % of the population in the North Coast region of British Columbia. Marine resource dependence has raised concerns about the possible economic impacts of a tanker spill along the proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway shipping route, which would export 525,000 barrels (bbls) per day of oil, bitumen, and condensate from Kitimat, British Columbia, to international markets. This study uses current and projected future values of four ocean-based industries and the Enbridge Northern Gateway project to estimate total (i.e., direct, indirect, and induced) economic effects on total output, employment, and gross domestic product (GDP) and impacts on the regional economy over a 50-year period under three potential spill scenarios: no impact (no spill), medium impact (a 63,000-bbl spill), and high impact (a 257,000-bbl spill). The proposed Enbridge Northern Gateway project could produce total positive economic effects of $600 million in output, 5,700–8,400 person years (PYs) of employment, and $300 million in GDP in the North Coast region. A medium impact tanker spill could cause losses of $40–$190 million in output, 400–1,500 PYs of employment, and $20–$100 million in GDP, and a high-impact spill could cause losses of $90–$300 million in output, 1,650–4,500 PYs of employment, and $70–$200 million in GDP.
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Notes
Operations figures are provided by ENGP (2010d) as number of jobs, instead of person-years.
Expected number of days fished was estimated using regression analysis. The reduction in fishing days was calculated based on the difference between the expected number of days fished and the actual number of fishing days reported for 1989.
The web-based oil spill model is available on the Living Oceans Society website: http://www.livingoceans.org/initiatives/tankers/oil-spill-model.
Regression analysis was also used to assess trends by industry for commercial fishing, ferry transportation and tourism and extrapolate future predictions about economic indicators; however, the number of data points (i.e., <10) for each regression was insufficient to provide reasonable results.
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Support for this study was generously provided by WWF-Canada.
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Hotte, N., Sumaila, U.R. How much could a tanker spill cost British Columbians?. Environ Dev Sustain 16, 159–180 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-013-9468-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-013-9468-7