Abstract
Over the past two decades, ecotourism has emerged as an important conservation strategy, especially in the Tropics where a diversity of species and habitats are threatened by traditional forms of development. However, questions remain about the sustainability of ecotourism in terms of distributions of income to local people and degradation of ecosystems visited by the ecotourists. In this study, a computer simulation model was used to study the possible long-term patterns of ecotourism at the country scale for Belize, Central America. The model includes state variables for natural ecosystems and tourism infrastructure with a submodel for global oil supply. It was simulated over a 100-year period as an EXCEL spreadsheet with a time step of 1 year. In all of the simulations, a decline over time in income from ecotourists was found due to increases in the price of oil and due to environmental impacts by tourism. Conservation efforts can slow the declines, but ultimately, the system is shown to be unsustainable. The results are discussed in the context of long-term conservation potential in Belize.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Beekhuis, J. (1981). Tourism in the Caribbean: impacts on the economic, social and natural environments. Ambio, 10, 325–331.
Belize Tourism Board. (2005). Belize accomodations directory. Belize: Places to Stay. Found on the internet at http://www.travelbelize.org/search.php?page=acomod. Accessed May 2005.
Blamey, R. K. (2001). Principles of ecotourism. In D. B. Weaver (Ed.), The encyclopedia of ecotourism (pp. 5–22). New York: CAB International.
Ceballos-Lascurain, H. (1987). The future of ecotourism (pp. 13–14). January: Mexico Journal.
Central Statistical Office Belize. (2003). Mid-year population estimates: 1981–2003. Found on the internet at http://www.cso.gov.bz/stats_population.html. Accessed May 2005.
CIA. (2005). Belize. The world factbook. Found on the internet at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bh.html. Accessed May 2005.
Duffy, R. (2002). A trip too far, ecotourism, politics & exploitation. London: Earthscan Publications Ltd.
Filion, F. L., Foley, J. P., & Jacquemot, A. J. (1994). The economics of global ecotourism. In M. Munasinghe & J. McNeely (Eds.), Protected area economics and policy (pp. 235–252). Washington, DC: World Bank.
Gossling, S. (1999). Ecotourism: A means to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem functions? Ecological Economics, 29, 303–320.
Gossling, S. (2000). Tourism—Sustainable development option? Environmental Conservation, 27, 223–224.
Holdgate, M. W. (1996). From care to action: Making a sustainable world. Washington, DC: Taylor and Francis.
Honey, M. (1999). Ecotourism and sustainable development, who owns paradise?. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Horwich, R. H., & Lyon, J. (1998). Community-based development as a conservation tool: The Community Baboon Sanctuary and Gales Point Manatee Project. In R. B. Primack, D. B. Bray, H. A. Galleti, & I. Ponciano (Eds.), Timber, tourists, and temples (pp. 343–363). Washington, DC: Island Press.
Kangas, P., Shave, M., & Shave, P. (1995). Economics of ecotourism operation in Belize. Environmental Management, 19, 669–673.
Lindberg, K., & Enriquez, J. (1994). An analysis of ecotourism’s economic contribution to conservation and development in Belize, vol. 2. Comprehensive report. Washington, DC: World Wildlife Fund.
NASA LARC. (2005). NASA surface meteorology and solar energy: Global/regional data. Found on the internet at http://earth-www.larc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/solar/register.cgi?task=login&next_url=/cgi-bin/cgiwrap/solar/ion-p&page=region_main.ion. Accessed May 2005.
Odum, H. T. (1994). Ecological and general systems. Niwot, CO: University of Colorado Press.
Odum, H. T., & Odum, E. C. (2000). Modeling for all scales: An introduction to system simulation. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
Overman, J. P. M., Witte, H., & Saldarriaga, J. (1994). Evaluation of regression models for above-ground biomass determination in Amazon rainforest. Journal of Tropical Ecology, 10, 207–218.
Rivera, E. C., de Queiroz, J. F., Ferraz, J. M., & Ortega, E. (2007). Systems models to evaluate eutrophication in the Broa Reservoir, São Carlos, Brazil. Ecological Modelling, 202, 518–526.
Santos, J. R., Pardi Lacruz, M., Araujo, L., & Keil, M. (2002). Savanna and tropical rainforest biomass estimation and spatialization using JERS-1 data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 23(7), 1217–1229.
Sluder, L. (1995). Recommended hotels in Belize. Belize First Magazine, 2(2) (online edition). Found on the internet at http://www.belizefirst.com/vol2e.html. Accessed May 2005.
United States Central Intelligence Agency. (2005). World Factbook: Belize. Found on the internet at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bh.html. Accessed May 2005.
United States Department of Energy. (2002). International petroleum monthly: Oil Production. Found on the internet at http://www.eia.doe.gov/ipm/supply.html. Accessed May 2005.
United States Department of State. (2004). Background note: Belize. Washington, DC: Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs. Found on the internet at http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/1955.htm. Accessed May 2005.
United States Embassy Belize. (2002). Country commercial guide. Found on the internet at http://belize.usembassy.gov/country_commercial_guide.html. Accessed May 2005.
United States Energy Information Agency. (2008). World proved reserves of oil and natural gas, most recent estimates. Found on the internet at http://www.eia.gov/emeu/international/reserves.html. Accessed May 2005.
World Bank. (1984). Belize: Economic report. World Bank Country Study. Washington, DC: World Bank.
World Resources Institute. (2003). Forests, grasslands, and drylands—Belize. Earthtrends country profiles. Found on the internet at http://earthtrends.wri.org. Accessed May 2005.
World Bank. (2005). GDP (Constant 2000 US $). Found on the internet at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD. Accessed May 2005.
WTRG. (2002). Oil price history and analysis. Energy Economics Newsletter. Found on the internet at http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm. Accessed May 2005.
Young, E. H. (2003). Balancing conservation with development in marine-dependent communities. In K. S. Zimmerer & T. J. Bassett (Eds.), Political ecology (pp. 29–49). New York: Guilford Press.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to gratefully acknowledge Dr. David Tilley of the Department of Environmental Science and Technology for guidance and review of the concepts and model presented in this research.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Blersch, D.M., Kangas, P.C. A modeling analysis of the sustainability of ecotourism in Belize. Environ Dev Sustain 15, 67–80 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-012-9374-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-012-9374-4