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Local air temperature tolerance: a sensible basis for estimating climate variability

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Abstract

The customary representation of climate using sample moments is generally biased due to the noticeably nonstationary behaviour of many climate series. In this study, we introduce a moment-free climate representation based on a statistical model fitted to a long-term daily air temperature anomaly series. This model allows us to separate the climate and weather scale variability in the series. As a result, the climate scale can be characterized using the mean annual cycle of series and local air temperature tolerance, where the latter is computed using the fitted model. The representation of weather scale variability is specified using the frequency and the range of outliers based on the tolerance. The scheme is illustrated using five long-term air temperature records observed by different European meteorological stations.

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Notes

  1. The term scaling is often used to denote a power law relationship D(x)=A x 2H between the function D(x) and its argument x, where A and 0<H<1 are constants (e.g., Yaglom 1986).

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Acknowledgments

The study was partially supported by Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (IUT20-11 and ETF9134) and by the EU Regional Development Foundation, Environmental Conservation and Environmental Technology R & D Program Project No. 3.2.0801.12-0044.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Tartu Observatory, Tõravere, 61602, Tartumaa, Estonia

    Olavi Kärner

  2. University of Tartu, Institute of Physics, 50090, Tartu, Estonia

    Piia Post

Authors
  1. Olavi Kärner
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  2. Piia Post
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Correspondence to Piia Post.

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Kärner, O., Post, P. Local air temperature tolerance: a sensible basis for estimating climate variability. Theor Appl Climatol 126, 575–583 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1594-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1594-8

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