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An early warning indicator for monitoring infectious animal diseases and its application in the case of a sheep pox epidemic

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Abstract

We describe an early warning indicator for monitoring infectious diseases. The approach is illustrated with data from a major sheep pox epidemic, which occurred in the Evros prefecture of Greece, from August 2013 until the end of 2014. We present the epidemic data and identify factors affecting this major epidemic using a suitable methodological framework for the sequential analysis of such outbreaks. Environmental conditions and seasonality affect the spread of the epidemic: autumn seems to enhance disease occurrence and higher average temperatures facilitate disease spread. The on-line prediction of the disease potential is investigated through an early warning system that is based on the probability of the disease going extinct. The temporal stability of this indicator is extensively explored.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural Development, Democritus University of Thrace, 193 Pantazidou Str., 68200, Orestiada, Greece

    C. Malesios

  2. Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, 76 Patission Str., 10434, Athens, Greece

    N. Demiris

  3. Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Thessaly, 224 Trikalon, 43100, Karditsa, Greece

    P. Kostoulas

  4. Rural Economy and Veterinary Directorate, 68200, Orestiada, Greece

    K. Dadousis

Authors
  1. C. Malesios
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  2. P. Kostoulas
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  3. K. Dadousis
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  4. N. Demiris
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to C. Malesios.

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Malesios, C., Kostoulas, P., Dadousis, K. et al. An early warning indicator for monitoring infectious animal diseases and its application in the case of a sheep pox epidemic. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 329–337 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1316-5

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