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Measuring spatial inhomogeneity at different spatial scales using hybrids of Gibbs point process models

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Abstract

Infectious diseases give rise to complex spatial patterns exhibiting aggregation at different scales. Baddeley (J Stat Softw 55:1–43, 2013) proposed a technique for constructing new Gibbs models for spatial point patterns, combining existing models available in the literature. We use their proposal to model the spatial point pattern of varicella, a highly contagious airborne disease, in Valencia, Spain. We employed descriptive analysis to get a glimpse of the basic properties of the point pattern. Covariate information such as the density of population (children under 14 years old) living in the study region, the distance to the nearest school, and the composition of families (expressed as the average number of persons per family) is used to describe the intensity of the process. We used SatScan to identify main clusters of schools, and to feed the model with this further information. Our analysis shows the relation between varicella cases and school locations, and highlights aggregation in the data at different spatial scales.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Francisco González of Surveillance Service and Epidemiological Control, General Division of Epidemiology and Health Surveillance – Department of Public Health, Generalitat Valenciana for providing the varicella data. We also thank Ana Míguez from Preventive Medicine and Public Health, University Hospital Dr. Peset, Valencia, for her very useful comments on epidemiology-related issues. Adina Iftimi’s research is funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, and Sports Grant FPU12/04531. The work of Francisco Montes was partially supported by Grants MTM2013-45381-P and MTM2013-43917-P from the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness. The work of Jorge Mateu was partially supported by Grants MTM2013-43917-P and P1-1B2012-52 (Bancaja project) from the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Valencia, C/ Doctor Moliner, 50, 46100, Burjassot-Valencia, Spain

    Adina Iftimi & Francisco Montes

  2. University Jaume I, Castellon, Spain

    Jorge Mateu & Carlos Ayyad

Authors
  1. Adina Iftimi
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  2. Francisco Montes
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  3. Jorge Mateu
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  4. Carlos Ayyad
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Correspondence to Adina Iftimi.

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Iftimi, A., Montes, F., Mateu, J. et al. Measuring spatial inhomogeneity at different spatial scales using hybrids of Gibbs point process models. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 31, 1455–1469 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1264-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1264-0

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