Abstract
Environmental risk management consists of making decisions on human activities or construction designs that are affected by the environment and/or have consequences or impacts on it. In these cases, decisions are made such that risk is minimized. In this regard, the forthcoming paper develops a close form that relates risk with cost, hazard, and vulnerability; and then focuses on vulnerability. The vulnerability of a system under an external action can be described by the conditional probability of the degrees of damage after an event. This vulnerability model can be obtained by a simplicial regression of those outputs, as a response variable, on explanatory variables. After a theoretical explanation, the authors present the case study of a nuclear power plant containment building. Once a given overpressure is registered inside the containment building, three possible outputs are to be considered: serviceability, breakdown, and collapse. The study consists of three steps: (a) modelling the containment building using the finite element method; (b) given an overpressure, simulating uncertain parameters related to material constitutive equations in order to obtain the corresponding proportions; (c) performing a simplicial regression to obtain a meaningful vulnerability model. The simulation provides normalized-to-unity outputs under the overpressure conditions. The obtained vulnerability model is in definite correspondence with previous results in nuclear power plant safety analysis reports.
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Acknowledgments
This research has been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture, and Sports under a scholarship (BOE n. 190, August 9th, 2012) to collaborate with the Department of Applied Mathematics III at UPC-BarcelonaTech from September 2012 to June 2013. The research has also been supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology under projects ‘Ingenio Mathematica (i-MATH)’ (Ref. No. CSD2006-00032) and ‘CODA-RSS’ (Ref. MTM2009-13272); from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under the project ‘METRICS’ (Ref. MTM2012-33236), and from the Agència de Gestió d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca of the Generalitat de Catalunya under the project Ref. 2009SGR424.
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Musolas, A., Egozcue, J.J. & Crusells-Girona, M. Vulnerability models for environmental risk assessment. Application to a nuclear power plant containment building. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30, 2287–2301 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1179-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1179-1