Abstract
We study change-points tests based on U-statistics for absolutely regular observations. Our method avoids some technical assumptions on the data and the kernel. The asymptotic properties of the U-statistics are studied under the null hypothesis, under fixed alternatives and under a sequence of local alternatives. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics under the null hypothesis and under the local alternatives are given explicitly and the tests are shown to be consistent. A small set of simulations is done for evaluating the performance of the tests in detecting changes in the mean, variance and autocorrelation of some simple time series.
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Appendix: proofs of the results
Appendix: proofs of the results
1.1 Preliminary results
In this subsection, we prove some preliminary results necessary to the proofs of Theorems 1 and 2 .
Proposition 1
Under the conditions of Theorem 1, we have, in probability
Under the conditions of Theorem 2, we have, in probability
Proof
We only prove the first part. This needs two lemmas that we first state and prove.
Lemma 1
Under the conditions of Theorem 1, there exists a Constant \(Cst>0\) such that
Proof of Lemma 1
We can write
where
From the integrability condition, we have
then
Since
so from Lemma 1 of Yoshihara (1976), we have the following inequalities:
(a) If \(1\le i_{1}<j_{1}\le [n\lambda ], \ [n\lambda ]+1\le i_{2}<j_{2}\le n\) and \(i_{2}-i_{1}\ge j_{2}-j_{1}\), then
Then we deduce
where \(k=j_{2}-i_{2}\).
Suppose k fixed, we have \([n\lambda ]\) ways to choose \(i_{1},\) once \(i_{1}\) is chosen we have one way to choose \(i_{2}=i_{1}+k\). For \(j_{1}\) we have \(n-[n\lambda ]\) ways to choose \(j_{1}\) and then for each \(j_{1}\), \(j_{2}\) need to be in the interval \([j_{1},j_{1}+k]\) and there are exactly \(\ k\) integers in such interval.
(b) Similarly, if \(1\le i_{1}<j_{1}\le [n\lambda ], \ [n\lambda ]+1\le i_{2}<j_{2}\le n\) and \(i_{2}-i_{1}\le j_{2}-j_{1}\), then
Thus, we deduce that
and Lemma 1 is proved. \(\square \)
We now define the process \({\mathcal {G}}_{n}(\lambda ),0\le \lambda \le 1\) by
Lemma 2
Under the conditions of Theorem 1, we have
Proof of Lemma 2
We can write
From Lemma 1, we deduce that
and Lemma 2 is proved. \(\square \)
From Lemma 2, we deduce that
for all \(\epsilon >0.\) It implies for \(0\le l_{1}\le l_{2}\le n\) with \(l_{1},l_{2},n\in {\mathbb {N}}\),
Consider the partial sum process defined by \(S_{0}=0\) and \(S_{i}=\sum _{j=1}^{i}A_{j}\) where \(A_{j}={\mathcal {G}}_{n}(\frac{j}{n})-{\mathcal {G}}_{n}(\frac{j-1}{n})\) if \(1\le j\le n-1\) and 0 otherwise. It results that \(S_{i}={\mathcal {G}}_{n}(\frac{i}{n})\).
The last inequality is equivalent to
From Theorem 10.2 of Billingsley (1999), we easily deduce that
which implies that, in probability,
This completes the proof of Proposition 1. \(\square \)
We need the following result proved by Oodaira and Yoshihara (1972).
Let \(\xi _1,\xi _2,\ldots ,\xi _n,\ldots \) be a strictly stationary sequence of zero-mean random variables, and let
Proposition 2
Assume \( {\mathbb {E}} \left( \left| \xi _{i}\right| ^{2+\delta } \right) <\infty \) for some positive \(\delta \) and \(\xi _1,\xi _2,\ldots ,\xi _n,\ldots \) is \(\alpha \)-mixing with \(\alpha \)-rate satisfying
Then \(\sigma _{*}^{2}<\infty .\)
If \(\sigma _{*}>0\), then the sequence of processes
converges weakly to a Wiener measure on \((D,\mathcal {D)}\), where \({\mathcal {D}}\) is the \(\sigma \)-fields of Borel sets for the Skorohod topology.
Proof
See the proof of Theorem 2 of Oodaira and Yoshihara (1972).
Proposition 3
Under the conditions of Theorem 1, we have
Under the conditions of Theorem 2, we have
Proof
We only prove (11). The part relating to (10) involves a series which is not a triangular array. It is more easier to handle than (11).
For establishing (11), we need to establish a finite-dimensional convergence and a tightness results.
Starting by the finite-dimensional convergence, by the Cramér-Wold device it suffices to show that for any \(k\in {\mathbb {N}}^{*}\), any \(a_{j,}b_{j},\lambda _{j}\in {\mathbb {R}}\), \(a_{1}<\ldots <a_{k}\), \(b_{1}<\ldots <b_{k}\), \(0=\lambda _{0}<\lambda _{1}<\ldots <\lambda _{k}=1\)
converges in distribution to a Gaussian random variable.
For that, we need the following lemma.
Lemma 3
(Harel and Puri 1989) Let \(\{X_{ni}\}\) be a sequence of zero-mean absolutely regular random variables (rv)’s with rates satisfying
Suppose that for any \(\kappa \), there exists a sequence \(\{Y^\kappa _{ni}\}\) of rv’s satisfying (12) such that
where \(B_\kappa \) is some positive constant
where c is some positive constant
where \(c_\kappa \) is some constant \(> 0\)
Then
converges in distribution to the normal distribution with mean 0 and variance c.
Without loss of generality, we take \(k=2\) and \(0=\lambda _{0}<\lambda _{1}<\lambda _{2}=1\), \(a_{1}<a_{2}\), \(b_{1}<b_{2}\).
The assumption (12) readily holds from (5).
Define, for \(j=1,2\),
For establishing (15), we need proving that, as n tends to infinity,
tends to some positive constant c.
We have
Since the random variables \(\psi _{ni}^{(1)}\) and \(\psi _{ni}^{(2)}\) are centered, we obtain
From the condition of Theorem 2, we deduce that \({\mathbb {E}}\left[ \left( \psi _{n1}^{(1)}\right) ^{2+\delta }\right] <\infty \), which implies that
We get
where \(M=\sup _{n \ge 1}\left\{ {\mathbb {E}}\left[ \left( \psi _{n1}^{(1)}\right) ^{2+\delta }\right] \right\} ^{\frac{1}{2+\delta }}\).
It results that
We also have
From
where \(M^{*}=\sup _{n \ge 1}\left\{ {\mathbb {E}}\left[ \left( \psi _{n1}^{(2)}\right) ^{2+\delta } \right] \right\} ^{\frac{1}{2+\delta }}\), it results that
Similarly, we get
From (18)-(20), we deduce (15).
Now, we turn to proving (14). For all \(i\ge 1\), and for any \(\kappa >0\), define
It is immediate that
It results from the integrability condition in Theorem 2 that the sequences \(\{\psi _{ni}^{(j)}; \ i\ge 1, \ j=1,2\}\) are uniformly integrable.
Whence
and (14) is proved.
The proof of (16), that is
where \(c_\kappa \) is some positive constant, is similar to that of (15).
It remains to prove (17).
For any \(i,j=1,2\), denote by \(\psi _{i}^{(j),\kappa }\) the counterpart of \(\psi _{ni}^{(j),\kappa }\) obtained by substituting the \(Y_{ni}\)’s for the \(X_i\)’s.
We have
By the Lebesgue dominated convergence theorem, one obtains
and
Therefore
and (17) is proved. Whence, the finite dimensional convergence is established.
For proving the tightness, we need the following Lemma.
Lemma 4
(Phillips and Durlauf 1986) Probability measures on a product space are tight iff all the marginal probability measures are tight on the component spaces.
It results from this lemma that it suffices to prove the tightness of each component of the sequence of processes in (11). It is immediate from Proposition 2 that the first is tight. For the second, define
If \(\lambda _1\le \lambda \le \lambda _2\), from the integral conditions and condition (5), there exists a constant C such that
If \(\lambda _2-\lambda _1\ge 1/n\) the last inequality follows and if \(\lambda _2-\lambda _1<1/n\), then either \(\lambda _1\) and \(\lambda \) lie in the same subinterval \([(i-1)/n,i/n]\) or else \(\lambda \) and \(\lambda _2\) do. In either of these cases the left hand of last inequality vanishes. From Theorem 13.5 of Billingsley (1999), the process \({\mathcal {M}}_n\) is tight. This ends the proof of Proposition 3. \(\square \)
1.2 Proof of Theorem 1
Using the Hoeffding decomposition, we can write \(Z_{n}(\lambda )\) as
From Proposition 1, we have
in probability.
Thus, by Slutsky’s lemma, it suffices to show that the sum of the first two terms
converges in distribution to the desired limit process.
It results from Proposition 2 that the process
converges weakly to a Brownian motion \(\{W(\lambda )\}_{0\le \lambda \le 1}\).
Proposition 3 yields
in distribution on the space \((D[0,1])^{2}\) to \((D[0,1])^{2}.\)
Now, we consider the mapping defined by
This is a continuous mapping from \((D[0,1])^{2}\) to D[0, 1]. Whence,
where for any \(\lambda \in [0,1]\),
Whence, Theorem 1 is proved. \(\square \)
1.3 Proof of Theorem 2
Now we prove Theorem 2. Under the conditions of Theorem 2, we have the following equality
From Proposition 1, we deduce that
in probability.
From Proposition 2, we deduce that
converges weakly to the Brownian process \(\{W_1(\lambda )\}_{_{0\le \lambda \le 1}}\) and
converges weakly to the Brownian process \(\{W_2(1)-W_2(\lambda )\}_{_{0\le \lambda \le 1}}\).
We have also from the \({\mathcal {H}}_{1,n}\)
From Proposition 3, we obtain that
where for any \(\lambda \in [0,1]\),
This establishes Theorem 2.
1.4 Proof of Theorem 3
Let \(1\le [(n+1)t]\le [n\lambda _0]\), then
First we prove that
From the Hoeffding decomposition (4), we have
As \((h_{1}^{(1)}(X_{i}))_{1\le i\le n}\) is stationary and ergodic, we have
For any \(\varepsilon >0\), put
One has from Markov inequality and Lemma 2 of Yoshihara (1976)
which implies
Then from Borel–Cantelli lemma
Then from (22), we have
Similarly, we prove
and
Now, we establish that
From (21), we have
where we recall that the \(Y_{j}\)’s are random variables with cumulative distribution function G and satisfy (5).
From the ergodic theorem, we have that
and
From Lemma 2, we deduce that
From Markov inequality, we deduce for any \(\epsilon >0\) that
Also, by Borel–Cantelli Lemma one has
Similarly, we prove that
These observations clearly imply the first part of (7). The proof of its second part is similar. \(\square \)
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Ngatchou-Wandji, J., Elharfaoui, E. & Harel, M. On change-points tests based on two-samples U-Statistics for weakly dependent observations . Stat Papers 63, 287–316 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00362-021-01242-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00362-021-01242-3