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Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system

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Abstract

The present study examines the ability of high resolution (T382) National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled atmosphere–ocean climate forecast system version 2 (CFS T382) in simulating the salient spatio-temporal characteristics of the boreal summertime mean climate and the intraseasonal variability. The shortcomings of the model are identified based on the observation and compared with earlier reported biases of the coarser resolution of CFS (CFS T126). It is found that the CFS T382 reasonably mimics the observed features of basic state climate during boreal summer. But some prominent biases are noted in simulating the precipitation, tropospheric temperature (TT) and sea surface temperature (SST) over the global tropics. Although CFS T382 primarily reproduces the observed distribution of the intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon region, some difficulty remains in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) characteristics. The simulated eastward propagation of BSISO decays rapidly across the Maritime Continent, while the northward propagation appears to be slightly slower than observation. However, the northward propagating BSISO convection propagates smoothly from the equatorial region to the northern latitudes with observed magnitude. Moreover, the observed northwest-southeast tilted rain band is not well reproduced in CFS T382. The warm mean SST bias and inadequate simulation of high frequency modes appear to be responsible for the weak simulation of eastward propagating BSISO. Unlike CFS T126, the simulated mean SST and TT exhibit warm biases, although the mean precipitation and simulated BSISO characteristics are largely similar in both the resolutions of CFS. Further analysis of the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) indicates that model overestimates the gravest equatorial Rossby waves and underestimates the Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. Based on analysis of CCEWs, the study further explains the possible reasons behind the realistic simulation of northward propagating BSISO in CFS T382, even though the model shows substantial biases in simulating mean state and other BSISO modes.

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Acknowledgments

This work is a part of Ph.D. dissertation of S. Abhik, financially supported by Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Govt. of India. IITM, Pune is fully funded by MoES, Govt. of India, New Delhi. We would like to thank NOAA’s National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) for providing CFSR dataset and Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and information service center (DISC) for TRMM dataset. The authors wish to thank NCEP for providing CFSv2 model through National Monsoon Mission and all the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments on the manuscript. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is duly acknowledged for making available NCAR Command Language (NCL). Corresponding author thanks Dr. Roxy M of Center for Climate Change Research, IITM, Pune for useful discussion.

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  1. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Dr. Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune, 411008, India

    S. Abhik, P. Mukhopadhyay, R. P. M. Krishna, Kiran D. Salunke, Ashish R. Dhakate & Suryachandra A. Rao

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  1. S. Abhik
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  2. P. Mukhopadhyay
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  3. R. P. M. Krishna
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Correspondence to P. Mukhopadhyay.

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Abhik, S., Mukhopadhyay, P., Krishna, R.P.M. et al. Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system. Clim Dyn 46, 3287–3303 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2769-9

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