Abstract
By investigating the relationship between tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) over the South China Sea (SCS) and the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), we found that the number of TCG varies significantly with the life cycle of 10–30-day/30–60-day mode of the ISO (QBWO/MJO). Considering the linkages between them, an extended-range forecast method for TCG over the SCS was constructed based on the spatial temporal projection model (STPM). By determining the phases of the QBWO and MJO from STPM, daily genesis rate (DGR) sequences at 10-day and 20-day lead time were derived. When the DGR sequence is in its positive phase, we consider that there is a high possibility of TCG over the SCS. Hindcasts for TCG in 2009–2018 indicate that the extended-range forecast method can successfully capture TCG over the SCS. For the 10-day lead time, the hitting rate is 80%, the missing rate is 20% and the false alarming rate is 32.4%, whereas with the increasing lead time, the hitting rate decreased to 74.3% and the false alarming rate increased to 35.3% at the lead time of 20 days.
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The data sets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by Technology Upgrading Project of Hainan province (HNQXJS202005); Open Fund of Key laboratory of Southern China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province (SCSF201907).
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Wei, X., Yang, Y. & Chen, L. The extended-range forecast of tropical cyclogenesis over the South China Sea based on the intraseasonal oscillation. Meteorol Atmos Phys 133, 1577–1589 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00830-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00830-0