Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific

  • Published:
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Summary

This paper reviews the interannual and interdecadal variations in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) and the possible physical mechanisms responsible for such variations. Interannual variations can largely be explained by changes in the planetary-scale flow patterns. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the WNP, however, do not contribute to such variations. Rather, SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are significantly correlated with TC activity over the WNP. Causality can be established: changes in the SST in the equatorial Pacific are related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and modifications of the planetary-scale flow associated with ENSO alter the conditions over the WNP and hence TC activity there. Variations in annual TC activity are also associated with different phases of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillations due to its modification of the vertical wind shear of the environment in which TCs form. Interdecadal variations in TC activity are apparently related to the location, strength and extent of the North Pacific subtropical high. However, the mechanisms responsible for modifying these characteristics of the subtropical high have yet to be identified.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • JCL Chan (1985) ArticleTitleTropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon Wea Rev 113 599–606 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0599:TCAITN>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • JCL Chan (1995) ArticleTitleTropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific in relation to the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation. Mon Wea Rev 123 2567–2571 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123<2567:TCAITW>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • JCL Chan (2000) ArticleTitleTropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J Climate 13 2960–2972 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2960:TCAOTW>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • JCL Chan KS Liu (2004) ArticleTitleGlobal warming and western North Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective. J Climate 17 IssueID23 4590–4602 Occurrence Handle10.1175/3240.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • JCL Chan JE Shi (1996) ArticleTitleLong-term trends and interannual variability in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 23 2765–2767 Occurrence Handle10.1029/96GL02637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan JCL, Zhou W (2005) PDO, ENSO and the summer monsoon over South China. Geophys Res Lett (in press)

  • JCL Chan JE Shi CM Lam (1998) ArticleTitleSeasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. Wea Forecast 13 997–1004 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0997:SFOTCA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • JCL Chan JE Shi KS Liu (2001) ArticleTitleImprovements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Wea Forecast 16 491–498 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0491:IITSFO>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • T Chen S-P Weng N Yamazaki S Kiehne (1998) ArticleTitleInterannual variation in the tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Mon Wea Rev 126 1080–1090 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<1080:IVITTC>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • K Dong (1988) ArticleTitleEl Niño and tropical cyclone frequency in the Australian region and the northwest Pacific. Aust Meteor Mag 36 219–225

    Google Scholar 

  • K Dong GJ Holland (1994) ArticleTitleA global view of the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclone frequencies. Acta Meteor Sinica 8 19–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Gong D-Y, Ho C-H (2002) Shift in the summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s. Geophys Res Lett 29 (DOI:10.1029/2001GL014523)

  • Gray WM (1979) “Hurricanes: their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation.” In: Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans (Shaw DB, ed). Bracknell, England, Royal Meteorological Society, pp 155–218

  • WM Gray (1984) ArticleTitleAtlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Mon Wea Rev 112 1649–1668 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<1649:ASHFPI>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • WM Gray JD Sheaffer JA Knaff (1992) ArticleTitleInfluence of stratospheric QBO on ENSO variability. J Meteor Soc Japan 70 975–994

    Google Scholar 

  • C-H Ho J-J Baik J-H Kim D-Y Gong (2004) ArticleTitleInterdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks. J Climate 17 1767–1776 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1767:ICISTT>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MA Lander (1994) ArticleTitleAn exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO. Mon Wea Rev 122 636–651 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0636:AEAOTR>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • KS Liu JCL Chan (2003) ArticleTitleClimatological characteristics and seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones making landfall along the South China coast. Mon Wea Rev 131 1650–1662 Occurrence Handle10.1175//2554.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • T Matsuura M Yumoto S Iizuka (2003) ArticleTitleA mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Climate Dyn 21 105–117 Occurrence Handle10.1007/s00382-003-0327-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • B Wang JCL Chan (2002) ArticleTitleHow does ENSO regulate tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific? J Climate 15 1643–1658 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1643:HSEEAT>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • B Wang R Wu X Fu (2000) ArticleTitlePacific-East Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Climate 13 1517–1536 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<1517:PEATHD>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • G Wu NC Lau (1992) ArticleTitleA GCM simulation of the relationship between tropical storm formation and ENSO. Mon Wea Rev 120 958–977 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<0958:AGSOTR>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • J Xu JCL Chan (2001) ArticleTitleThe role of the Asian/Australian monsoon system in the onset time of El Niño events. J Climate 14 418–433 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0418:TROTAA>2.0.CO;2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xue Z, Neumann CJ, (1984) Frequency and motion of western North Pacific tropical cyclones. Tech Memo NWS NHC 23: NOAA, Washington, DC, 89 pp

  • M Yumoto T Matsuura (2001) ArticleTitleInterdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. J Meteor Soc Japan 79 23–35 Occurrence Handle10.2151/jmsj.79.23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • GZ Zhang W Drosdowsky N Nicholls (1990) ArticleTitleEnvironmental influences on northwest Pacific tropical cyclone numbers. Acta Meteorol Sinica 4 180–188

    Google Scholar 

  • G Zhang X Zhang F Wei (1994) ArticleTitleA study on the variations of annual frequency of tropical cyclone in northwest Pacific during the last hundred years. J Trop Meteor 11 315–323

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Department of Physics and Materials Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

    Johnny C. L. Chan

Authors
  1. Johnny C. L. Chan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Chan, J. Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 89, 143–152 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0126-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0126-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation