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Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific by the quasi-biweekly oscillation

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Abstract

The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is the second most dominant intraseasonal mode over the western North Pacific (WNP) during boreal summer. In this study, the modulation of WNP tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) by the QBWO and its association with large-scale patterns are investigated. A strong modulation of WNP TCG events by the QBWO is found. More TCG events occur during the QBWO’s convectively active phase. Based on the genesis potential index (GPI), we further evaluate the role of environmental factors in affecting WNP TCG. The positive GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO correspond well with TCG counts and locations. A large positive GPI anomaly is spatially correlated with WNP TCG events during a life cycle of the QBWO. The low-level relative vorticity and mid-level relative humidity appear to be two dominant contributors to the QBWO-composited GPI anomalies during the QBWO’s active phase, followed by the nonlinear and potential intensity terms. These positive contributions to the GPI anomalies are partly offset by the negative contribution from the vertical wind shear. During the QBWO’s inactive phase, the mid-level relative humidity appears to be the largest contributor, while weak contributions are also made by the nonlinear and low-level relative vorticity terms. Meanwhile, these positive contributions are partly cancelled out by the negative contribution from the potential intensity. The contributions of these environmental factors to the GPI anomalies associated with the QBWO are similar in all five flow patterns—the monsoon shear line, monsoon confluence region, monsoon gyre, easterly wave, and Rossby wave energy dispersion associated with a preexisting TC. Further analyses show that the QBWO strongly modulates the synoptic-scale wave trains (SSWs) over the WNP, with larger amplitude SSWs during the QBWO’s active phase. This implies a possible enhanced (weakened) relationship between TCG and SSWs during the active (inactive) phase. This study improves our understanding of the modulation of WNP TCG by the QBWO and thus helps with efforts to improve the intraseasonal prediction of WNP TCG.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster/Pacific Typhoon Research Center/Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Haikun Zhao

  2. NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL, 33149, USA

    Chunzai Wang

  3. RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, 650-0047, Japan

    Ryuji Yoshida

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  1. Haikun Zhao
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Zhao, H., Wang, C. & Yoshida, R. Modulation of tropical cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific by the quasi-biweekly oscillation. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 33, 1361–1375 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-016-5267-z

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