Abstract
With the onset of rapid urban growth in the past 3 decades, a developing country for instance India, Africa, etc. has resulted in climatic and environmental changes severely. Pace of urban growth has increased in India post 2000’s because of key driving economic factors coupled with industrial development promoting job opportunities and promising better life style. This has led to cities expanding towards periphery and rural neighbourhood causing urban sprawl. Continuous increase in the built-up area is also responsible for rise in the surface temperature modifying the rainfall patterns and affecting the biodiversity of the region. This communication focuses mainly on the recent urban growth challenges and changing land surface temperature by developing Indian cities with very minimum landscape to house burgeoning population, immediate strategies and action-plan required to mitigate negative environmental impacts and effects on human beings. Further, the study attempts to correlate the dynamic land use change, land cover, land surface temperature and future urban growth scenario for one of the most systematically planned city of India, Chandigarh. Analysis was performed using open source coding and software platforms such as GRASS, QGIS and shell scripting. The study elaborates land use modelling for the year 2025 by adopting cellular automata based open source SLEUTH model The documentation and source code of SLEUTH model are publically available. The model was tested and calibrated in three different modes: coarse, fine and full resolution. The calibration mode showed high spread coefficient suggesting the urban sprawl would take organic growth. Open source software and coding would help in increased scientific output as it would help researchers understand the code that is being implemented and helps in improvisation of exiting codes to variety of applications. Results of this study would help in developing necessary policy measures and sustainable actions that are required to reduce anthropogenic effects on urban and natural environment.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Dietzel, C., Herold, M., Hemphill, J. J., & Clarke, K. C. (2005). Spatio-temporal dynamics in California’s Central Valley: Empirical links to urban theory. International Journal of Geographical Information Science,19(2), 175–195.
Sun, S., Parker, D. C., Huang, Q., Filatova, T., et al. (2014). Market impacts on land-use change: An agent-based experiment. Annals of the Association of American Geographers,104(3), 460–484.
Sudhira, H. S., Ramachandra, T. V., & Jagadish, K. S. (2004). Urban sprawl: Metrics, dynamics and modelling using GIS. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,5, 29–39.
United Nations. (2015) World urbanization prospects: the 2014 revision. Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/352). Retrieved from http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/. Accessed on February 2, 2018.
Government of India (GOI). (2010). Mid-term appraisal of the eleventh five year plan 2007–2012, Planning Commission. GOI. Retrieved from http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/mta/11th_mta/chapterwise/Comp_mta11th.pdf. Accessed on August 10, 2018.
Sankhe, S., Vittal, I., Dobbs, R., Mohan, A., Gulati, A. et al. (2010). India’s urban awakening: Building inclusive cities sustaining economic growth. McKinsey Global Institute. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/urbanization/urban-awakening-in-india. Accessed on October 16, 2018.
Shaw, R., & Das, A. (2018). Identifying peri-urban growth in small and medium towns using GIS and remote sensing technique: A case study of English Bazar Urban Agglomeration, West Bengal, India. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science,21(2), 159–172.
Song, W., Deng, X., Yuan, Y., Wang, Z., & Li, Z. (2015). Impacts of land-use change on valued ecosystem service in rapidly urbanized North China Plain. Ecological Modelling,318, 245–253.
Liu, Y., Wang, Y., Peng, J., Du, Y., Liu, X., Li, S., et al. (2015). Correlations between urbanization and vegetation degradation across the world’s metropolises using DMSP/OLS night time light data. Remote Sensing,7(2), 2067–2088.
Brian, F. T., James, S. F., Felix, W. L., David, N. W., Noah, P. M., & Donald, F. A. (2017). GRACE Groundwater Drought Index: Evaluation of California Central Valley groundwater drought. Remote Sensing of Environment,198, 384–392.
Bounoua, L., Zhang, P., Mostovoy, G., Thome, K., et al. (2015). Impact of urbanization on US surface climate. Environmental Research Letters,10(8), 084010.
Mehmood, R., Mehmood, S. A., Butt, M. A., Younas, I., & Adrees, M. (2016). Spatiotemporal analysis of urban sprawl and its contributions to climate and environment of peshawar using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Journal of Geographic Information System,8, 137–148.
Muthamilselvan, A., Srimadhi, K., Ramalingam, N., & Pavithra, P. (2016). Urbanization and its related environmental problem in Srirangam Island, Tiruchirappalli district of Tamil Nadu, India-Thermal Remote Sensing and GIS approach. Environmental Earth Sciences,75(9), 765.
Cui, E., Ren, L., & Sun, H. (2015). Evaluation of variations and affecting factors of eco-environmental quality during urbanization. Environmental Science and Pollution Research,22(5), 3958–3968.
Bharath, H. A., Vinay, S., Chandan, M. C., Gouri, B. A., & Ramachandra, T. V. (2018). Green to gray: Silicon Valley of India. Journal of Environmental Management,206, 1287–1295.
Pandey, B., & Seto, K. C. (2015). Urbanization and agricultural land loss in India: Comparing satellite estimates with census data. Journal of Environmental Management,148, 53–66.
Gallo, K. P., Tarpley, J. D., McNab, A. L., & Karl, T. R. (1995). Assessment of urban heat islands: A satellite perspective. Atmospheric Research,37(1–3), 37–43.
Weng, Q., Lu, D., & Schubring, J. (2004). Estimation of land surface temperature-vegetation abundance relationship for urban heat island studies. Remote Sensing of Environment,89(4), 467–483.
Chen, X. L., Zhao, H. M., Li, P. X., & Yin, Z. Y. (2006). Remote sensing image-based analysis of the relationship between urban heat island and land use/cover changes. Remote Sensing of Environment,104(2), 133–146.
Mojolaoluwa, T. D., Emmanuel, O. E., & Kazeem, A. I. (2018). Assessment of thermal response of variation in land surface around an urban area. Modelling Earth Systems and Environment,4(2), 535–553.
Fathian, F., Prasad, A. D., Dehghan, Z., & Eslamian, S. (2015). Influence of land use/land cover change on land surface temperature using RS and GIS techniques. International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology,5(3), 195–207.
Prasad, A. D., Jain, K., & Gairola, A. (2013). Surface temperature estimation using landsat data for part of the Godavari and Tapi Basins, India: A case study. International Journal of Engineering and Advanced Technology,2(3), 320–322.
Piringer, M., Grimmond, C. S. B., Joffre, S. M., Mestayer, P., et al. (2002). Investigating the surface energy balance in urban areas–recent advances and future needs. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution: Focus,2(5–6), 1–16.
Grimmond, C. S. B. (2006). Progress in measuring and observing the urban atmosphere. Theoretical and Applied Climatology,84(1–3), 3–22.
Xiao, H., & Weng, Q. (2007). The impact of land use and land cover changes on land surface temperature in a karst area of China. Journal of Environmental Management,85(1), 245–257.
Scott, M. J., Rosenberg, N. J., Edmonds, J. A., Cushman, R. M., et al. (1990). Consequences of climatic change for the human environment. Climate Research,1, 63–79.
Bolin, B., Doos, B. R., Jaeger, J., & Warrick, R. A. (Eds.). (1986). The greenhouse effect, climatic change, and ecosystems. SCOPE 29. Chichester: Wiley.
Raloff, J. (1989). Global smog: Newest greenhouse projection. Science News,135(17), 262–263.
Gardner, M. (1970). Mathematical games: The fantastic combinations of John Conway’s new solitaire game “life”. Scientific American,223(10), 120–123.
Wolfram, S. (1986). Theory and applications of cellular automata. Advanced series on complex systems (Vol. 43, No. 12, p. 560). Singapore: World Scientific Publication.
Rafiee, R., Mahiny, A. S., Khorasani, N., Darvishsefat, A. A., & Danekar, A. (2009). Simulating urban growth in Mashad City, Iran through the SLEUTH model (UGM). Cities,26(1), 19–26.
Silva, E. A., & Clarke, K. C. (2005). Complexity, emergence and cellular urban models: Lessons learned from applying Sleuth to two Portuguese metropolitan areas. European Planning Studies,13(1), 93–116.
Project Gigalopolis: Urban and Land Cover Modeling. Retrieved from www.ncgia.ucsb.edu. Accessed on March 07, 2018.
Jantz, C. A., Goetz, S. J., & Shelley, M. K. (2004). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design,31(2), 251–271.
Dietzel, C., & Clarke, K. C. (2007). Toward optimal calibration of the SLEUTH land use change model. Transactions in GIS,11(1), 29–45.
Guan, Q., & Clarke, K. C. (2010). A general-purpose parallel raster processing programming library test application using a geographic cellular automata model. International Journal of Geographical Information Science,24(5), 695–722.
Bharath, H. A., Chandan, M. C., Vinay, S., & Ramachandra, T. V. (2018). Modelling urban dynamics in rapidly urbanising Indian cities. The Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Science,21(3), 201–210.
Ramachandra, T. V., Aithal, B. H., & Sanna, D. D. (2012). Insights to urban dynamics through landscape spatial pattern analysis. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation,18(1), 329–343.
Duda, R. O., Hart, P. E., & Stork, D. G. (2000). Pattern classification (2nd ed.). Hoboken: Wiley-Interscience Publication. ISBN 9814-12-602-0.
Congalton, R. G., & Green, K. (2008). Assessing the accuracy of remotely sensed data: Principles and practices. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Lillesand, T. M., & Kiefer, R. W. (2012). Remote sensing and image interpretation (6th ed., pp. 554–555). Hoboken: Wiley.
Shafia, A., Nimish, G., & Bharath, H. A. (2018). Dynamics of land surface temperature with changing land-use: Building a climate resilient smart city. In Proceedings of 3rd international conference for convergence in technology, Pune, India, April 6–8, 2018.
Dietzel, C., & Clarke, K. C. (2004). Replication of spatio-temporal land use patterns at three levels of aggregation by an urban cellular automata. In International conference on cellular automata (pp. 523–532). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
Silva, E. A., & Clarke, K. C. (2002). Calibration of the SLEUTH urban growth model for Lisbon and Porto, Portugal. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems,26(6), 525–552.
Yang, X., & Lo, C. P. (2003). Modelling urban growth and landscape changes in the Atlanta metropolitan area. International Journal of Geographical Information Science,17(5), 463–488.
Dezhkam, S., Amiri, B. J., Darvishsefat, A. A., & Sakieh, Y. (2014). Simulating the urban growth dimensions and scenario prediction through sleuth model: A case study of Rasht County, Guilan, Iran. GeoJournal,79(5), 591–604.
Ducrot, R., Le Page, C., Bommel, P., & Kuper, M. (2004). Articulating land and water dynamics with urbanization: An attempt to model natural resources management at the urban edge. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems,28(1–2), 85–106.
De Jong, M., Joss, S., Schraven, D., Zhan, C., & Weijnen, M. (2015). Sustainable–smart–resilient–low carbon–eco–knowledge cities; making sense of a multitude of concepts promoting sustainable urbanization. Journal of Cleaner Production,109, 25–38.
Gollin, D., Jedwab, R., & Vollrath, D. (2016). Urbanization with and without industrialization. Journal of Economic Growth,21(1), 35–70.
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Science and Engineering Research Board, India, The Ministry of Science and Technology, Government of India, Ranbir and Chitra Gupta School of Infrastructure Design and Management, Sponsored research in Consultancy cell, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur and West Bengal Department of Higher Education for the financial and infrastructure support. We thank (1) United States Geological Survey (2) National Remote Sensing Centre for providing temporal remote sensing data (3) Dr. Gargi Chaudhuri, Assistant Professor University of Wisconsin La Crosse for her insightful help during Sleuth modelling (4) Project Gigalopolis for the source code. We are also thankful to Open Source Geospatial Foundation for software.
Funding
The funding was provided by Department of Science and Technology India (Grant No. ECR/2016/001254), DST WEST BENGAL (Grant No. 164(Sanc.)/ST/P/S&T/10G-20/2017), Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (Grant No. IIT/SRIC/ISIRD/2017-2018).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chandan, M.C., Nimish, G. & Bharath, H.A. Analysing spatial patterns and trend of future urban expansion using SLEUTH. Spat. Inf. Res. 28, 11–23 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-019-00262-4
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41324-019-00262-4