Skip to main content
Log in

Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Capital Budgeting

  • Published:
International Journal of Fuzzy Systems Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Discounted cash flows methods are very popular in justifying investments. Uncertainty in investment parameters always exists and is inevitable. The fuzzy set theory is capable to capture this uncertainty through the membership functions of these parameters. However, ordinary fuzzy sets are criticized for having one single membership value for each certain parameter value. To remove this criticism, type-2 fuzzy sets were proposed. In this paper, we developed interval type-2 fuzzy capital budgeting techniques by using both triangular and trapezoidal interval type-2 fuzzy sets. The developed techniques are interval type-2 fuzzy net present value analysis, interval type-2 fuzzy future value analysis, and interval type-2 fuzzy equivalent uniform annual value analysis. These techniques are applied to a part of a real life investment project. The results show that the techniques produce consistent outputs, which means that the developed techniques can be used interchangeably.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Aguilar-Lasserre, A.A., Bautista, M.A., Ponsich, A., Huerta, M.A.G.: An AHP-based decision-making tool for the solution of multiproduct batch plant design problem under imprecise demand. Comput. Oper. Res. 36(3), 711–736 (2009)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  2. Aguilar-Lasserre, A.A., Pibouleau, L., Azzaro-Pantel, C., Domenech, S.: Enhanced genetic algorithm-based fuzzy multiobjective strategy to multiproduct batch plant design. Appl. Soft Comput. 9(4), 1321–1330 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Aras, A.C., Kaynak, O.: Interval type-2 fuzzy neural system based control with recursive fuzzy C-means clustering. Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. 16(3), 317–326 (2014)

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  4. Bednyagin, D., Gnansounou, E.: Real options valuation of fusion energy R& D programme. Energy Policy 39(1), 116–130 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Beskese, A., Kahraman, C., Irani, Z.: Quantification of flexibility in advanced manufacturing systems using fuzzy concept. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 89(1), 45–56 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Bhattacharyya, R., Kumar, P., Kar, S.: Fuzzy R&D portfolio selection of interdependent projects. Comput. Math. Appl. 62(10), 3857–3870 (2011)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  7. Buckley, J.J.: The fuzzy mathematics of finance. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 21(3), 257–273 (1987)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. Buckley, J.J.: Solving fuzzy equations in economics and finance. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 48(3), 289–296 (1992)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  9. Cao, J., Ji, X., Li, P., Liu, H.: Design of adaptive interval type-2 fuzzy control system and its stability analysis. Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. 13(4), 335–343 (2011)

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  10. Carlsson, C., Fullér, R.: A fuzzy approach to real option valuation. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 139(2), 297–312 (2003)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  11. Carlsson, C., Fullér, R., Heikkilä, M., Majlender, P.: A fuzzy approach to R&D project portfolio selection. Int. J. Approx. Reason. 44(2), 93–105 (2007)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  12. Chan, F.T.S., Chan, M.H., Tang, N.K.H.: Evaluation methodologies for technology selection. J. Mater. Process. Technol. 107(1–3), 330–337 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Chen, S.M., Lee, L.W.: Fuzzy multiple attributes group decision-making based on the interval type-2 TOPSIS method. Expert Syst. Appl. 37(4), 2790–2798 (2010)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Chiu, C.Y., Park, C.S.: Fuzzy cash flow analysis using present worth criterion. Eng. Econ. 39(2), 113–138 (1994)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Chiu, C.-Y., Park, C.S.: Capital budgeting decisions with fuzzy projects. Eng. Econ. 43(2), 125–150 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Damghani, K.K., Sadi-Nezhad, S., Aryanezhad, M.B.: A modular Decision Support System for optimum investment selection in presence of uncertainty: combination of fuzzy mathematical programming and fuzzy rule based system. Expert Syst. Appl. 38(1), 824–834 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Dietz, A., Aguilar-Lasserre, A., Azzaro-Pantel, C., Pibouleau, L., Domenech, S.: A fuzzy multiobjective algorithm for multiproduct batch plant: application to protein production. Comput. Chem. Eng. 32(1–2), 292–306 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Gong, Y.: Fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making method based on interval type-2 fuzzy sets and applications to global supplier selection. Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. 15(4), 392–400 (2013)

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  19. Ho, S.H., Liao, S.H.: A fuzzy real option approach for investment project valuation. Expert Syst. Appl. 38(12), 15296–15302 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Huang, X.: Chance-constrained programming models for capital budgeting with NPV as fuzzy parameters. J. Comput. Appl. Math. 198(1), 149–159 (2007)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  21. Kahraman, C., Ruan, D., Tolga, E.: Capital budgeting techniques using discounted fuzzy versus probabilistic cash flows. Inf. Sci. 142(1–4), 57–76 (2002)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  22. Kahraman, C., Tolga, E., Ulukan, Z.: Justification of manufacturing technologies using fuzzy benefit/cost ratio analysis. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 66(1), 45–52 (2000)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Kahraman, C., Beskese, A., Ruan, D.: Measuring flexibility of computer integrated manufacturing systems using fuzzy cash flow analysis. Inf. Sci. 168(1–4), 77–94 (2004)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  24. Kahraman, C., Gülbay, M., Ulukan, Z.: Applications of fuzzy capital budgeting techniques. In: Kahraman, C. (ed.) Fuzzy Applications in Industrial Engineering, pp. 177–203. Springer, Berlin (2006)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  25. Karnik, N.N., Mendel, J.M.: Centroid of a type-2 fuzzy set. Inf. Sci. 132(1–4), 195–220 (2001)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  26. Karsak, E.: Measures of liquidity risk supplementing fuzzy discounted cash flow analysis. Eng. Econ. 43(4), 331–344 (1998)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Karsak, E., Tolga, E.: Fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making procedure for evaluating advanced manufacturing system investments. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 69(1), 49–64 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Kaufmann, A., Gupta, M.M.: Fuzzy mathematical models in engineering and management science. North-Holland, New York (1988)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  29. Kuchta, D.: Fuzzy capital budgeting. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 111(3), 367–385 (2000)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  30. Kuo-Ping, C. (2011). Multiple criteria group decision making with triangular interval type-2 fuzzy sets. In: Proceedings of 2011 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ), Jun 27–30, Tapei, pp. 1098–7584

  31. Lee, Y.C., Lee, S.S.: The valuation of RFID investment using fuzzy real option. Expert Syst. Appl. 38(10), 12195–12201 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Liao, S.H., Ho, S.H.: Investment appraisal under uncertainty—a fuzzy real options approach. In: Wong, K., Mendis, B., Bouzerdoum, A. (eds.) Neural Information Processing, Models and Applications, pp. 716–726. Springer, Berlin (2010)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  33. Liou, T.S., Chen, C.W.: Fuzzy decision analysis for alternative selection using a fuzzy annual worth criterion. Eng. Econ. 51(1), 19–34 (2006)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  34. Mao, Y., Wu, W.: Fuzzy real option evaluation of real estate project based on risk analysis. Syst. Eng. Procedia 1, 228–235 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Mendel, J.M., John, R.I., Liu, F.L.: Interval type-2 fuzzy logical systems made simple. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 14(6), 808–821 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Neto, A.C.G., Marujo, L.G., Cosenza, C.A.N., Dória, F.A.M., Lima Jr, J.M.: Using fuzzy NPV evaluation to justify the acquisition of business interruption insurance. Expert Syst. Appl. 39(12), 10821–10831 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Niewiadomski, A., Ochelska, J., Szczepaniak, P.S.: Interval-valued linguistic summaries of databases. Control Cybern. 35(2), 415–443 (2006)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  38. Omitaomu, O.A., Badiru, A.: Fuzzy present value analysis model for evaluating information system projects. Eng. Econ. 52(2), 157–178 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Pohjola, V.J., Turunen, I.: Estimating the internal rate of return from fuzzy data. Eng. Costs Prod. Econ. 18(3), 215–221 (1990)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Sevastjanov, P., Dimova, L., Sevastianov, D.: Fuzzy capital budgeting: investment project evaluation and optimization. In: Kahraman, C. (ed.) Fuzzy Applications in Industrial Engineering, pp. 205–228. Springer, Berlin (2006)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  41. Sewastjanow, P., Dymowa, L.: On the fuzzy internal rate of return. In: Kahraman, C. (ed.) Fuzzy Engineering Economics with Applications, pp. 105–128. Springer, Berlin/Heidelberg (2008)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  42. Shahriari, M.: Mapping fuzzy approach in engineering economics. Int. Res. J. Finance Econ. 81, 1450–2887 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  43. Sheen, J.N.: Fuzzy financial profitability analyses of demand side management alternatives from participant perspective. Inf. Sci. 169(3–4), 329–364 (2005)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  44. Sheen, J.N.: Fuzzy evaluation of cogeneration alternatives in a petrochemical industry. Comput. Math. Appl. 49(5–6), 741–755 (2005)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  45. Tao, C., Jinlong, Z., Shan, L., Benhai, Y.: Fuzzy real option analysis for IT investment in nuclear power station. In: Shi, Y., van Albada, G., Dongarra, J., Sloot, P. (eds.) Computational Science—ICCS 2007, pp. 953–959. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg (2007)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  46. Tavana, M., Zandi, F.: Applying fuzzy bi-dimensional scenario-based model to the assessment of Mars mission architecture scenarios. Adv. Space Res. 49(4), 629–647 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Tercenño, A., De Andrés, J., Barberà, G., Lorenzana, T.: Using fuzzy set theory to analyse investments and select portfolios of tangible investments in uncertain environments. Int. J. Uncertain. Fuzz. Knowl.-Based Syst. 11(3), 263 (2003)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Tolga, E., Demircan, M.L., Kahraman, C.: Operating system selection using fuzzy replacement analysis and analytic hierarchy process. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 97(1), 89–117 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Tsao, C.-T.: Fuzzy net present values for capital investments in an uncertain environment. Comput. Oper. Res. 39(8), 1885–1892 (2012)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  50. Uçal, İ., Kahraman, C.: Fuzzy real options valuation for oil investments. Technol. Econ. Dev. Econ. 15(4), 646–669 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Ucal, Sarı I., Kuchta, D.: Fuzzy global sensitivity analysis of fuzzy net present value. Control Cybernet. 41(2), 481–496 (2012)

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  52. Ucal, Sarı I., Kuchta, D.: Fuzzy capital budgeting_ fuzzy bailout payback period. J. Multıple-Valued Logıc Soft Comput. 21(3–4), 247–268 (2013)

    Google Scholar 

  53. Wang, M.J., Liang, G.S.: Benefıt/cost analysis using fuzzy concept. Eng. Econ. 40(4), 359–376 (1995)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Ward, T.L.: Fall Industrial Engineering Conference, pp. 476–481. Institute of Industrial Engineers, Chicago (1985)

    Google Scholar 

  55. Wee, H.M., Lo, C.C., Hsu, P.H.: A multi-objective joint replenishment inventory model of deteriorated items in a fuzzy environment. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 197(2), 620–631 (2009)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  56. Xu, B., Fang, W., Shi, R., Yu, J., Liu, L.: Three-objective fuzzy chance-constrained programming model for multiproject and multi-item investment combination. Inf. Sci. 179(5), 623–641 (2009)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  57. Xu, J., Zheng, H., Zeng, Z., Wu, S., Shen, M.: Discrete time–cost–environment trade-off problem for large-scale construction systems with multiple modes under fuzzy uncertainty and its application to Jinping-II Hydroelectric Project. Int. J. Project Manag. 30(8), 950–966 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Yao, J.S., Chen, M.S., Lin, H.W.: Valuation by using a fuzzy discounted cash flow model. Expert Syst. Appl. 28(2), 209–222 (2005)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. You, C.J., Lee, C.K.M., Chen, S.L., Jiao, R.J.: A real option theoretic fuzzy evaluation model for enterprise resource planning investment. J. Eng. Tech. Manag. 29(1), 47–61 (2012)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. Zadeh, L.A.: Fuzzy sets. Inf. Control 8(3), 338–353 (1965)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  61. Zadeh, L.A.: Fuzzy logic and its application to approximate reasoning. Inf. Process. 74, 591–594 (1974)

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  62. Zadeh, L.A.: The concept of a linguistic variable and its application to approximate reasoning—I. Inf. Sci. 8(3), 199–249 (1975)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  63. Zmeškal, Z.: Generalised soft binomial American real option pricing model (fuzzy–stochastic approach). Eur. J. Oper. Res. 207(2), 1096–1103 (2010)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Irem Ucal Sari.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ucal Sari, I., Kahraman, C. Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Capital Budgeting. Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. 17, 635–646 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40815-015-0040-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40815-015-0040-5

Keywords

Navigation