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Hydrological modeling of the watershed of a RAMSAR site using the SWAT model (Ichkeul National Park—Tunisia of the extreme north)

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Abstract

The semi-distributed SWAT model is widely used at the watershed scale. The objective of this study is to evaluate the capacity of the SWAT model to simulate the water balance components of the uncontrolled part of the Ichkeul watershed. This is done to predict the future flow out and impacts of urban facilities and climate change on the Ichkeul ecosystem. In addition, the risk of losing this strategic asset must be minimized. Various climatic (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation) morphological (DEM) and thematic data were used to feed the model. Through the SUFI-2 algorithm, SWAT-CUP performs the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis operation. For the time intervals of 2015–2017 and 2018–2019, the model was calibrated and validated by comparing simulated flows with observed flows at the Ecluse-Sidi Hassoun station located downstream of the study area. The quality of the daily simulated liquid flow predictions was evaluated using a performance evaluator (R2, NSE, PBIAS, P-factor, and R-factor). For the calibration and validation periods, NSE, PBIAS, P-factor, and R-factor were 0.87 and 0.93, -6.7 and 6.8, 0.97 and 0.95, 1.17 and 1.11, and finally 0.88 and 0.94 for R2. These findings demonstrate a good match between the measured outflow and the simulation. SWAT predicts outflows effectively. Thus, the outflow from the uncontrolled part of the Ichkeul watershed may be predicted using this model.

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Acknowledgements

This paper is a contribution between The University of CARTHAGE (Faculty of Sciences of Bizerte) and the National Agency of Environment Protection (ANPE), and part of the PhD of the first author. We are grateful to the reviewer who contributed to the improvement.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth Science, University of Bizerte-FSB, University of Carthage, 7120, Bizerte, Tunisia

    Ayser Ben Saad, Moufida Ben M’barek-Jemai & Safa Mezza

  2. National Environmental Protection Agency (ANPE), Tunis, Tunisia

    Nabiha Ben M’barek

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  1. Ayser Ben Saad
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  2. Moufida Ben M’barek-Jemai
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  3. Nabiha Ben M’barek
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Correspondence to Ayser Ben Saad.

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Ben Saad, A., Ben M’barek-Jemai, M., Ben M’barek, N. et al. Hydrological modeling of the watershed of a RAMSAR site using the SWAT model (Ichkeul National Park—Tunisia of the extreme north). Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 9, 2783–2795 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01659-1

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