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Assessing the dynamics of Lassa fever with impact of environmental sanitation: optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis

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Abstract

This study discusses the development and analysis of a nonlinear optimal control problem for a Lassa fever (LF) deterministic model featuring vertical transmission route, nonlinear form of incidence terms and effect of environmental sanitation with a view to providing insightful information to the government, decision and policy makers about how to prioritize the implementations of environmental fumigation, use of condom, use of antiviral therapy, rodent reduction control and educational campaign in terms of efficacy and cost benefits. An existing seven-dimensional deterministic model of LF dynamics is extended to take into account five time-dependent control variables accounting for environmental fumigation, use of condoms, use of antiviral therapy, rodent reduction control and educational campaign. Optimal control theory with the aid of Pontryagin’s maximum principle is employed to derive the necessary conditions for the existence of optimal control quintuple. To investigate how the implementation of various single, double, triple, quadruple and quintuple control interventions minimize LF spread in the population at minimum cost, numerical experiment is conducted on the derived optimality system. More importantly, efficiency analysis is carried out to ascertain the most efficient interventions among the set of different control strategies under consideration. While cost-effectiveness analysis is done to determine the least costly control intervention that can be implemented to nip the spread of LF in the population.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the handling editor and the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions that led to the presentation of this improved manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Federal University of Technology, Akure, P.M.B. 704, Ondo State, Nigeria

    Afeez Abidemi & Kolade M. Owolabi

  2. Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 002, South Africa

    Edson Pindza

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  1. Afeez Abidemi
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  2. Kolade M. Owolabi
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  3. Edson Pindza
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All the authors contributed equally to this work, and approved the final manuscript draft.

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Correspondence to Kolade M. Owolabi.

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Abidemi, A., Owolabi, K.M. & Pindza, E. Assessing the dynamics of Lassa fever with impact of environmental sanitation: optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 9, 2259–2284 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01624-y

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