Abstract
Over the next generation or two, America’s older, largely white population will increasingly be replaced by today’s disproportionately poor minority children. All future growth will come from populations other than non-Hispanic whites as America moves toward a majority-minority society by 2043. This so-called Third Demographic Transition raises important implications about changing racial boundaries in the United States, that is, about the physical, economic, and sociocultural barriers that separate different racial and ethnic groups. America’s racial transformation may place upward demographic pressure on future poverty and inequality as today’s disproportionately poor and minority children grow into adult roles. Racial boundaries will be reshaped by the changing meaning of race and ethnicity, shifting patterns of racial segregation in neighborhoods and the workplace, newly integrating (or not) friendship networks, and changing rates of interracial marriage and childbearing. The empirical literature provides complicated lessons and offers few guarantees that growing racial diversity will lead to a corresponding breakdown in racial boundaries—that whites and minorities will increasingly share the same physical and social spaces or interact as coequals. How America’s older population of elected officials and taxpayers responds today to America’s increasingly diverse population will provide a window to the future, when today’s children successfully transition (or not) into productive adult roles. Racial and ethnic inclusion will be reshaped by changing ethnoracial inequality, which highlights the need to invest in children—now.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
This theme is familiar from previous presidential addresses of the Population Association of America. Samuel Preston (1984) was concerned about the growing economic divide between America’s elderly and children. Sara McLanahan (2004) emphasized the “diverging destinies” of American children and how they are shaped by economic inequality and family diversity. Douglas Massey (1996) highlighted America’s new “age of extremes,” marked by the concentration of poverty and increasing geographic separation of the affluent from the poor.
In some countries, diversity is often framed in terms of religion, but the issues are much the same. Take the example of Israel. There, ultra-orthodox Jews and Arabs exhibit extraordinarily high rates of fertility while secular Jews have below-replacement fertility. Group differences in socioeconomic status, education, and welfare dependence have fueled contentious debates about Israel’s continuing sustainability, political conflict, and sovereignty (Rebhun and Malach 2012).
Current figures mask the full extent of racial and ethnic diversity in America. Racial and ethnic classifications, based on self-identification, are both crude and fluid (Perez and Hirschman 2009). The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines “whites” as persons “having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North Africa.” It also includes people who listed themselves as Caucasian or self-identified as the Irish, Lebanese, or Egyptian, among others. Some whites enumerated in the 2010 census also claimed other races as part of their racial identity. This is the so-called multiracial population. In 2010, 3.2 % of the white population (alone or in combination with another race) checked another box on the race question or wrote in another race on the census schedule (Hixson et al. 2011). Overall, 2.9 % of the U.S. population listed two or more races in 2010, up from 2.4 % in 2000 (Humes et al. 2011). Such diversity is only the tip of the iceberg; a large but unknown percentage of people who listed only one race are in fact multiracial, especially in the case of African Americans (see Perez and Hirschman 2009). Moreover, growing diversity led the U.S. Census Bureau to translate its 2010 census schedule into 59 different languages for distribution to different population groups across the United States. The Census Bureau also used bilingual (e.g., English/Spanish) forms in some parts of the country.
For example, the generational mix of Hispanics, who have disproportionately high poverty rates, will change dramatically from a population of immigrants to one of native-born Americans, who have much lower rates of poverty (Lichter et al. 2006; Van Hook et al. 2004). As the minority share of the electorate increases, voting power alone may change the political discourse and the nature of public investments.
In 2009, natality statistics from the National Center for Health States revealed 4.1 million births reported to U.S. residents (Martin et al. 2011). Of this total, 2.2 million or 46.4 % of births were to non-Hispanic white women. Of course, these numbers are based on the race and ethnicity of the mother, not the father. NCHS figures undoubtedly underestimate the percentage of minority births. About 5 % of children under age 5 are multiracial.
That racial and ethnic diversity is occurring from the “bottom up” can be demonstrated with the so-called Simpson diversity index. This index gives the probability that two randomly chosen people will be of a different race or ethnicity. My calculations using data on seven ethnoracial groups from the 2010 American Community Survey indicate that diversity among children is much larger (.637) than among working-age adults (.542), especially the elderly (.350). A random draw of two children from America’s population is twice as likely to yield children of different races as of the same race. The opposite pattern exists for America’s elderly.
The ACS is a rolling monthly survey. Births recorded in a particular survey year may have occurred in the year preceding the survey (e.g., mothers interviewed in June 2007 may have borne children between July 2006 and June 2007). ACS births recorded in a particular calendar year therefore do not correspond precisely with the annual data provided through the vital registration system (collected by the National Center for Health Statistics), where births are recorded in the year that they occurred. For a comparison of ACS and NCHS fertility data, see Dye (2010).
This optimistic theme clearly is evident in the titles of several recently published books, including Creating a New Racial Order (Hochschild et al. 2012), The Diversity Paradox: Immigration and the Color Line in 21st Century America (Lee and Bean 2010), Immigrants and Boomers: Forging a New Social Contract for the Future of America (Myers 2007b), Achieving Anew: How New Immigrants Do in American Schools, Jobs, and Neighborhoods (White and Glick 2009), and Blurring the Color Line: The New Chance for a More Integrated America (Alba 2009).
The optimistic inferences we draw from observing the seemingly color-blind associations among our children sometimes ignore ongoing developmental processes. That is, racial identities (and racial attitudes) are not innate but come from social interactions that unfold over time with family members, and with others in schools, neighborhoods, peer groups, and voluntary associations (that are often homogeneous racially) (Raabe and Beelmann 2011).
For example, Taylor and Mateyka (2011), using the General Social Survey, reported that age is associated with more stereotypical beliefs about blacks, less receptivity to sharing social spaces (e.g., living in neighborhoods), negative attributions of poverty (e.g., laziness as opposed to structural conditions), and racial resentment.
Hispanics may be “whitening” along a continuum between whites and blacks at opposite poles, although their placement will be heavily influenced by skin tone (Burton et al. 2010). The racial divide may be changing from white-black to white-nonwhite to black-nonblack, or even to a new tripartite classification in which nonwhite nonblacks occupy a growing middle category (for discussion, see Bonilla-Silva 2002; Lee and Bean 2004). Others claim that Hispanics are being “racialized,” at least for some national-origin groups (e.g., Mexico’s mestizos) and for those with “dark” skin (Telles and Ortiz 2008; Telles and Sue 2009).
Separating opportunity structure from preferences is a difficult task; people—at least some—choose their own opportunities. That is, they choose to live (or not) in racially integrated neighborhoods. This is the endogenous membership problem that makes separating opportunities from preferences an extraordinarily difficult task.
Preferences are not easily separated from structural conditions. Blacks may prefer to live in predominately black neighborhoods precisely because they believe that they are unwelcome in white neighborhoods. The endogenous membership problem—people choose their neighborhoods—makes the study of segregation difficult (Mouw and Entwisle 2006). Not surprisingly, a frequent goal of recent research is to separate opportunity from preference (Wimmer and Lewis 2010).
The Pew study, for example, reported that 63 % of all Americans said they “would be fine” if a family member married outside their race. This high percentage is not being driven by minorities alone. Among whites, the percentage was nearly as high (at 61 %) as the national percentage. Of course, these figures are far in excess of observed rates of intermarriage, which raises questions about the mismatch between attitudes and behavior (Herman and Campbell 2012). Although intermarriage may not be experienced directly, it is often experienced indirectly. Goldstein (1999) showed that roughly 20 % of all Americans have a close relative who is of another race.
Lest we despair, Gunnar Myrdal (1944:51), in An American Dilemma, reminds us that the “children and grandchildren of [previous] unassimilated foreigners are well-adjusted Americans,” despite receiving “their first course in Americanization in the squalid and congested quarters of New York’s East Side and similar surroundings.”
Data from the National Center for Educational Statistics show that 75 % of the full-time college and university faculty (Fall 2009) are white; only 5.4 % and 3.8 %, respectively, are blacks and Hispanics (National Center for Education Statistics 2013:Table 264). Yet, for 2009, data from the Current Population Survey show that 18.4 % of the U.S. population aged 15–24 was black, and 15.5 % was Hispanic. In 2009, only 13.2 % of all doctorates awarded in 2009 went to underrepresented groups (American Indian, black, or Hispanic) (see The Chronicle of Higher Education 2011:B44).
References
Alba, R. (1985). The twilight of ethnicity among Americans of European ancestry: The case of Italians. Ethnic and Racial Studies, 8, 134–158.
Alba, R. (2005). Bright vs. blurred boundaries: Second-generation assimilation and exclusion in France, Germany, and the United States. Ethnic and Racial Studies, 28, 20–49.
Alba, R. (2009). Blurring the color line: The new chance for a more integrated America. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Alba, R. D., & Nee, V. (2003). Remaking the American mainstream: Assimilation and contemporary immigration. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Alba, R., Slown, J., & Sperline, J. (2011). The integration imperative: The children of low-status immigrants in schools of wealthy societies. Annual Review of Sociology, 37, 395–415.
Alba, R., & Waters, M. C. (2012). The next generation: Immigration youth in a comparative perspective. New York: New York University Press.
Alexander, M., & West, C. (2012). The new Jim Crow. New York: New Press.
Allport, G. W. (1954). The nature of prejudice. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley.
Alon, S., & Tienda, M. (2007). Diversity, opportunity, and the shifting meritocracy in higher education. American Sociological Review, 72, 487–511.
Batson, C. D., Qian, Z., & Lichter, D. T. (2006). Interracial and intraracial patterns of mate selection among America’s diverse black populations. Journal of Marriage and Family, 68, 658–672.
Blackwell, D. L., & Lichter, D. T. (2004). Homogamy among dating, cohabitating, and married couples. The Sociological Quarterly, 45, 719–737.
Blau, P. (1977). Inequality and heterogeneity: A primitive theory of social structure. New York: Free Press.
Blau, P. M., Beeker, C., & Fitzpatrick, K. M. (1984). Intersecting social affiliations and intermarriage. Social Forces, 62, 585–606.
Bobo, L. D. (2011). Somewhere between Jim Crow & post-racialism: Reflections on the racial divide. Daedalus, 140, 111–136.
Bobo, L., & Charles, C. (2009). Race in the American mind: from the Moynihan report to the Obama candidacy. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 621, 243–259.
Bonilla-Silva, E. (2002). We are all Americans! The Latin Americanization of racial stratification in the USA. Race and Society, 5, 3–16.
Bruch, E. E., & Mare, R. D. (2006). Neighborhood choice and neighborhood change. The American Journal of Sociology, 112, 667–709.
Buchanan, P. J. (2011). Suicide of a superpower: Will America survive to 2025? New York: Thomas Dunne Books.
Burk, J., & Espinoza, E. (2012). Race relations within the U.S. military. Annual Review of Sociology, 38, 401–422.
Burton, L. M., Bonilla-Silva, E., Ray, V., Buckelew, R., & Freeman, E. H. (2010). Critical race theories, colorism, and the decade’s research on families of color. Journal of Marriage and Family, 72, 440–459.
Charles, C. Z. (2003). The dynamics of racial residential segregation. Annual Review of Sociology, 29, 167–207.
The Chronicle of Higher Education. (2011, September 30). Diversity in academe. Retrieved from http://chronicle.com/article/Diversity-in-Academe-The-2011/135462/
Choi, K. H., Tienda, M., Cobb-Clark, D., & Sinning, M. (2011). Immigration and status exchange in Australia and the United States. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, 30, 49–62.
Clark, W. A. V. (2007). Race, class, and place: Evaluating mobility outcomes for African Americans. Urban Affairs Review, 42, 295–314.
Clark, W. A. V. (2009). Changing residential preferences across income, education, and age: Findings from the Multi-City Study of Urban Inequality. Urban Affairs Review, 44, 334–355.
Clark, W. A. V., & Fossett, M. (2008). Understanding the social context of the Schelling segregation model. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States, 105, 4109–4114.
Coleman, D. (2006). Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: A third demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 32, 401–446.
Coleman, D. (2009). Divergent patterns in the ethnic transformation of societies. Population and Development Review, 35, 449–478.
Coleman, D. (2010). Projections of the ethnic minority populations of the United Kingdom 2006–2056. Population and Development Review, 36, 441–486.
Cooke, T. J. (2010). Residential mobility of the poor and the growth of poverty in inner-ring suburbs. Urban Geography, 31, 179–193.
Crowder, K., Hall, M., & Tolnay, S. E. (2011). Neighborhood immigration and native out-migration. American Sociological Review, 76, 25–47.
DeNavas-Walt, C., Proctor, B. D., & Smith, J. C. (2011). Income, poverty, and health insurance coverage in the United States: 2010 (Current Population Reports No. P60-239). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.
Dion, M. R. (2005). Healthy marriage programs: Learning what works. The Future of Children, 15, 139–156.
Dixon, J. C. (2006). The ties that bind and those that don’t: Toward reconciling group threat and contact theories of prejudice. Social Forces, 84, 2179–2204.
Domingo, A. (2008). “Demodystopias”: Prospects of demographic hell. Population and Development Review, 34, 725–745.
Donato, K. M., & Armenta, A. (2011). What we know about unauthorized migration? Annual Review of Sociology, 37, 529–543.
Dreier, P., Mollenkopf, J., & Swanstrom, T. (2001). Place matters: Metropolitics for the 21st century. Lawrence, KS: University of Kansas Press.
Duncan, B., & Trejo, S. J. (2007). Ethnic identification, intermarriage, and unmeasured progress by Mexican Americans. In G. J. Borjas (Ed.), Mexican immigration to the United States (pp. 229–267). Chicago, IL: National Bureau of Economic Research and the University of Chicago Press.
Duncan, B., & Trejo, S. J. (2011). Intermarriage and the intergenerational transmission of ethnic identity and human capital for Mexican Americans. Journal of Labor Economics, 29, 195–227.
Dunifon, R. (2010). Welfare reform and intergenerational mobility (a report for the Economic Mobility Project). Washington, DC: Pew Charitable Trusts. Retrieved from http://www.economicmobility.org/assets/pdfs/EMP_TANF%2015.pdf
Dwyer, R. E. (2010). Poverty, prosperity, and place: The shape of class segregation in the age of extremes. Social Problems, 57, 114–137.
Dye, J. L. (2010). Fertility of American women: 2008 (Current Population Reports No. P-20 563). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.
Espenshade, T. J., & Radford, A. W. (2009). No longer separate, not yet equal: Race and class in elite college admission and campus life. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Farley, R. (1988). After the starting line: Blacks and women in an uphill race. Demography, 25, 477–495.
Farrell, C. R., & Lee, B. A. (2011). Racial diversity and change in metropolitan neighborhoods. Social Science Research, 40, 1108–1123.
Feliciano, C., Robnett, B., & Komaie, G. (2009). Gendered racial exclusion among white internet daters. Social Science Research, 38, 39–54.
Figlio, D. N., & Fletcher, D. (2012). Suburbanization, demographic change and the consequences for school finance. Journal of Public Economics, 96, 1144–1153.
Fischer, C. S., & Mattson, G. (2009). Is America fragmenting? Annual Review of Sociology, 35, 435–455.
Fischer, C. S., Stockmayer, G., Stiles, J., & Hout, M. (2004). Distinguishing the geographic levels and social dimensions of U.S. metropolitan segregation. Demography, 41, 37–59.
Flippen, C. A. (2012). Laboring underground: The employment patterns of Hispanic immigrant men in Durham, NC. Social Problems, 59, 21–42.
Fong, E., & Shibuya, K. (2005). Multiethnic cities in North America. Annual Review of Sociology, 31, 285–304.
Fossett, M. (2006). Ethnic preferences, social distance dynamics, and residential segregation: Theoretical explorations using simulation analysis. Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 30, 185–274.
Frank, R., Akresh, I. R., & Lu, B. (2010). Latino immigrants and the U.S. racial order: How and where do they fit in? American Sociological Review, 75, 378–401.
Frey, W. H. (2011). America’s diverse future: Initial glimpses at the U.S. child population from the 2010 Census (State of Metropolitan America No. 26). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.
Friedman, S. (2008). Do declines in residential segregation mean stable neighborhood racial integration in metropolitan America? A research note. Social Science Research, 37, 920–933.
Friedman, S. (2012). Bringing proximate neighbours into the study of U.S. residential segregation. Urban Studies, 48, 611–639.
Geller, A., Cooper, C. E., Garfinkel, I., Schwartz-Soicher, O., & Mincy, R. B. (2012). Beyond absenteeism: Father incarceration and child development. Demography, 49, 49–76.
Gilens, M. (2000). Why Americans hate welfare: Race, media, and the politics of antipoverty policy. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Glaeser, E., & Vigdor, J. (2012). The end of the segregated century: Racial separation in America’s neighborhoods, 1990–2010 (Civic Report No. 66). New York: Manhattan Institute.
Goldstein, J. (1999). Kinship networks that cross racial lines: The exception or the rule? Demography, 36, 399–407.
Goodreau, S. M., Kitts, J. A., & Morris, M. (2009). Birds of a feather or friend of a friend? Using exponential random graph models to investigate adolescent social networks. Demography, 46, 103–125.
Gordon, M. M. (1964). Assimilation in American life. New York: Oxford University Press.
Gullickson, A. (2006). Black/white interracial marriage trends, 1850–2000. Journal of Family History, 31, 289–312.
Hacker, J. S., & Pierson, P. (2010). Winner-take-all politics: How Washington made the rich richer—and turned its back on the middle class. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Hall, M. (2013). Residential integration on the new frontier: Immigrant segregation in established and new destinations. Demography. Advance online publication. doi:10.1007/s13524-012-0177-x
Hall, M., Greenman, E., & Farkas, G. (2010). Legal status and wage disparities for Mexican immigrants. Social Forces, 89, 491–514.
Harris, D. R. (2001). Why are whites and blacks averse to black neighbors? Social Science Research, 30, 100–116.
Harris, D. R., & Ono, H. (2005). How many interracial marriages would there be if all groups were of equal size in all places. Social Science Research, 34, 236–251.
Heaton, T. B., & Mitchell, C. (2012). Changing intergroup boundaries in Brazilian marriages: 1991–2008. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 43, 461–482.
Heckman, J. (2006). Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science, 312, 1900–1902.
Herman, M. R., & Campbell, M. E. (2012). I wouldn’t, but you can: Attitudes toward interracial relationships. Social Science Research, 41, 343–358.
Hero, R. E. (2007). Racial diversity and social capital: Equality and community in America. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Hipp, J. R. (2012). Segregation through the lens of housing unit transition: What roles do the prior residents, the local micro-neighborhood, and the broader neighborhood play? Demography, 49, 1285–1306.
Hirschman, C. (2005). Immigration and the American century. Demography, 42, 595–620.
Hirschman, C., Alba, R., & Farley, R. (2000). The meaning and measurement of race in the U.S. census: Glimpses into the future. Demography, 37, 381–393.
Hixson, L., Hepler, B., & Kim, M. O. (2011). The white population: 2010 (2010 Census Briefs C2010BR-05). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.
Hochschild, J. L., Weaver, V. M., & Burch, T. (2012). Creating a new racial order: How immigration, multiracialism, genomics, and the young can remake race in America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Hoffman, S. (2006). By the numbers: The public costs of teen childbearing. Washington, DC: National Campaign to Prevent Teen Pregnancy.
Hollinger, D. A. (2008). Obama, the instability of color lines, and the promise of a postethnic future. Callaloo, 31, 1033–1037.
Hout, M., & Goldstein, J. (1994). How 4.5 million Irish immigrants become 40 million Irish Americans: Demographic and subjective aspects of the ethnic composition of white Americans. American Sociological Review, 59, 64–82.
Huffington, A. (2011). Third World America. New York: Broadway Paperbacks.
Humes, K. R., Jones, N. A., & Ramirez, R. R. (2011). Overview of race and Hispanic origin: 2010 (2010 Census Briefs C2010BR-02). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.
Hummer, R. A., & Hamilton, E. R. (2010). Race and ethnicity in fragile families. The Future of Children, 20, 113–131.
Huntington, S. P. (2004). Who are we? The challenges to America’s national identity. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Iceland, J. (2009). Where we live: Immigration and race in the United States. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Iceland, J., Goyette, K. A., Nelson, K. A., & Chan, C. W. (2010). Racial and ethnic residential segregation and household structure: A research note. Social Science Research, 39, 39–47.
Iceland, J., Sharp, G., & Timberlake, J. M. (2013). Sun belt rising: Regional population change and the decline in black residential segregation, 1970–2009. Demography, 50, 97–123.
Isaacs, J., Hahn, H., Renane, S., Steurele, E. E., & Vericher, T. (2011). Kid’s share: Report on federal expenditures on children through 2010. Washington, DC: Urban Institute and Brookings Institution.
Jacobs, L. R., & Soss, J. (2010). The politics of inequality in America: A political economy framework. Annual Review of Political Science, 13, 341–364.
Jimenéz, T. R. (2010). Replenishing ethnicity: Mexican Americans, immigration and identity. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.
Johnson, K. M., & Lichter, D. T. (2008). Natural increase: A new source of population growth in emerging Hispanic destinations. Population and Development Review, 34, 327–346.
Johnson, K. M., & Lichter, D. T. (2010). Growing diversity among America’s children and youth: Spatial and temporal dimensions. Population and Development Review, 36, 151–175.
Johnson, K. M., & Lichter, D. T. (2012). Rural natural increase in the new century: America’s third demographic transition. In L. J. Kulcsar & K. J. Curtis (Eds.), International Handbook of Rural Demography (pp. 17–34). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer.
Joyner, K., & Kao, G. (2000). School racial composition and adolescent racial homophily. Social Science Quarterly, 81, 810–825.
Joyner, K., & Kao, G. (2005). Interracial relationships and the transition to adulthood. American Sociological Review, 70, 563–581.
Junius, D. (2012, October 27). AP poll: U.S. majority have prejudice against blacks. USA Today. Retrieved online from http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/27/poll-black-prejudice-america/1662067/
Kalmijn, M., & van Tubergen, F. (2010). A comparative analysis of intermarriage: Explaining differences among national-origin groups in the United States. Demography, 47, 459–479.
Kao, G., & Joyner, K. (2006). Do Hispanic and Asian adolescents practice panethnicity friendship choices? Social Science Quarterly, 87, 972–992.
Kearney, M. (2006). Intergenerational mobility for women and minorities in the United States. The Future of Children, 16, 37–53.
Kesler, C., & Bloemraad, I. (2010). Does immigration erode social capital? The conditional effects of immigration-generated diversity on trust, membership, and participation across 19 countries, 1981–2000. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 43, 319–347.
Kim, A. H., & White, M. J. (2010). Panethnicity, ethnic diversity, and residential segregation. The American Journal of Sociology, 115, 1558–1596.
Kohler, P. K., Manhart, L. E., & Lafferty, W. E. (2008). Abstinence-only and comprehensive sex education and the initiation of sexual activity and teen pregnancy. Journal of Adolescent Health, 42, 344–351.
Kritz, M. M., Gurak, D. G., & Lee, M.-A. (2011). Will they stay? Foreign-born out-migration from new U.S. destinations. Population Research and Policy Review, 30, 537–567.
Krysan, M. (2002). Community undesirability in black and white: Examining racial residential preferences through community perceptions. Social Problems, 49, 521–543.
Krysan, M., Couper, M. P., Farley, R., & Forman, T. A. (2009). Does race matter in neighborhood preferences? Results from a video experiment. The American Journal of Sociology, 115, 527–559.
Lam, D. (2011). How the world survived the population bomb: Lessons from 50 years of extraordinary demographic history. Demography, 48, 1231–1262.
Lamont, M., & Molnár, V. (2002). The study of boundaries in the social sciences. Annual Review of Sociology, 28, 167–195.
Landale, N. S., & Oropesa, R. S. (2007). Hispanic families: Stability and change. Annual Review of Sociology, 33, 381–405.
Laumann, E. O. (1973). Bonds of pluralism: The form and substance of urban social networks. New York: Wiley.
Lee, B. A., Iceland, J., & Sharp, G. (2012). Racial and ethnic diversity goes local: Charting change in American communities over three decades (US2010 Project Report). New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Lee, B. A., & Marlay, M. (2007). The right side of the tracks: Affluent neighborhoods in the metropolitan United States. Social Science Quarterly, 88, 766–789.
Lee, B. A., Reardon, S. F., Firebaugh, G., Farrell, C. R., Matthews, S. A., & O’Sullivan, D. (2008). Beyond the census tract: Patterns and determinants of racial segregation at multiple geographic scales. American Sociological Review, 73, 766–791.
Lee, J., & Bean, F. D. (2004). America’s changing color lines: Race/ethnicity, immigration, and multiracial identification. Annual Review of Sociology, 30, 221–242.
Lee, J., & Bean, F. D. (2010). The diversity paradox: Immigration and the color line in 21st century America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Lichter, D. T. (2012a). Immigration and the new racial diversity in rural America. Rural Sociology, 77, 3–35.
Lichter, D. T. (2012b). Childbearing among cohabiting women: Race, pregnancy, and union transitions. In A. Booth, S. L. Brown, & N. S. Landale (Eds.), Early adulthood in a family context (pp. 209–219). New York: Springer.
Lichter, D. T., Brown, J. B., Qian, Z., & Carmalt, J. M. (2007a). Marital assimilation among Hispanics? Evidence of declining cultural and economic incorporation? Social Science Quarterly, 88, 745–765.
Lichter, D. T., Carmalt, J. H., & Qian, Z. (2011). Immigration and intermarriage among Hispanics: Crossing racial and generational boundaries. Sociological Forum, 26, 241–264.
Lichter, D. T., & Johnson, K. M. (2007). The changing spatial concentration of America’s rural poor population. Rural Sociology, 72, 331–358.
Lichter, D. T., & Johnson, K. M. (2009). Immigrant gateways and Hispanic migration to new destinations. International Migration Review, 43, 496–518.
Lichter, D. T., Parisi, D., Grice, S. M., & Taquino, M. C. (2007b). National estimates of racial segregation in rural and small-town America. Demography, 44, 563–581.
Lichter, D. T., Parisi, D., & Taquino, M. C. (2012). The geography of exclusion: Race, segregation, and concentrated poverty. Social Problems, 59, 364–388.
Lichter, D. T., Parisi, D., Taquino, M. C., & Grice, S. M. (2010). Residential segregation in new Hispanic destinations: Cities, suburbs, and rural communities compared. Social Science Research, 39, 215–230.
Lichter, D. T., Qian, Z., & Crowley, M. L. (2006). Child poverty among racial minorities and immigrants: Explaining trends and differentials. Social Science Quarterly, 86, 1037–1059.
Logan, J. R. (2011). Whose schools are failing? New York: Russell Sage Foundation and Brown University.
Logan, J. R., & Stults, B. J. (2011). The persistence of segregation in the metropolis: New findings from the 2010 census. New York: Russell Sage Foundation and Brown University.
Logan, J. R., & Zhang, W. (2011). Global neighborhoods: New evidence from Census 2010. New York: Russell Sage Foundation and Brown University.
Ludwig, J., Liebman, J. B., Kling, J. R., Duncan, G. J., Katz, L. F., Kessler, R. C., & Sanbonmatsu, L. (2008). What can we learn about neighborhood effects from the moving to opportunity experiment? The American Journal of Sociology, 114, 144–188.
Magnuson, K. A., & Waldfogel, J. (2005). Early childhood care and education: Effects on ethnic and racial gaps in school readiness. The Future of Children, 15, 169–196.
Martin, P., & Midgley, E. (2010). Immigration in America: Update 2010. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.
Martin, J. A., Brady, E. H., Ventura, S. J., Osterman, M. J. K., Kirmeyer, S., Mathews, T. J., et al. (2011). Births: Final data for 2009 (National Vital Statistics Reports 60(1)). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Martin, J. A., Brady, E. H., Ventura, S. J., Osterman, M. J. K., Wilson, E. E., & Matthews, T. J. (2012). Births: Final data for 2010 (National Vital Statistics Reports 61(1)). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Massey, D. S. (1996). The age of extremes: Concentrated affluence and poverty in the twenty-first century. Demography, 33, 395–412.
Massey, D. S. (2008). New faces in new places: The changing geography of American immigration. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Massey, D. S., & Denton, N. A. (1993). American apartheid: Segregation and the making of the underclass. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Massey, D. S., & Fischer, M. J. (2003). The geography of inequality in the United States, 1950–2000. Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, 2003, 1–39.
Massey, D. S., Rothwell, J., & Domina, T. (2009). The changing bases of segregation in the United States. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 626, 74–90.
Massey, D. S., & Sánchez, R. M. (2010). Brokered boundaries: Creating immigrant identity in anti-immigrant times. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
McCall, L., & Percheski, C. (2010). Income inequality: New trends and research directions. Annual Review of Sociology, 36, 329–347.
McClintock, E. A. (2010). When does race matter? Race, sex, and dating at an elite university. Journal of Marriage and Family, 72, 45–72.
McLanahan, S. (2004). Diverging destinies: How children are faring under the second demographic transition. Demography, 41, 607–627.
McLanahan, S., & Percheski, C. (2008). Family structure and the reproduction of inequalities. Annual Review of Sociology, 34, 257–276.
McPherson, M., Smith-Lovin, L., & Cook, J. M. (2001). Birds of a feather: Homophily in social networks. Annual Review of Sociology, 27, 415–444.
Menjívar, C., & Abrego, L. J. (2012). Legal violence: Immigration law and the lives of Central American immigrants. The American Journal of Sociology, 117, 1380–1421.
Moody, J. (2001). Race, school integration, and friendship segregation in America. The American Journal of Sociology, 107, 679–716.
Morgan, S. P. (2003). Is low fertility a 21st century demographic crisis? Demography, 40, 589–603.
Mouw, T., & Entwisle, B. (2006). Residential segregation and interracial friendship in schools. The American Journal of Sociology, 112, 394–441.
Murdock, S. H., White, S., Hoque, M. N., Pecotte, B., & You, X. (2003). The new Texas challenge: Population change and the future of Texas. College Station, TX: Texas A&M University Press.
Murray, C. (2012). Coming apart: The state of white America, 1960–2010. New York: Crown Forum.
Myers, D. (2007a). California and the third great demographic transition: Immigrant incorporation, ethnic change, and population aging, 1970–2030. In P. Davies & I. Morgan (Eds.), America’s Americans: Population issues in U.S. society and politics (pp. 346–382). London, UK: University of London, Institute for the Study of the America’s.
Myers, D. (2007b). Immigrants and boomers: Forging a new social contract for the future of America. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Myrdal, G. (1944). An American dilemma. New York: Harper & Row.
National Center for Education Statistics. (2013, January 21). Digest of education statistics: Table 264. Full-time instructional faculty in degree-granting institutions, by race/ethnicity, sex, and academic rank: Fall 2007, fall 2009, and fall 2011. Retrieved from http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d12/tables/dt12_264.asp
Newman, K. S., & O’Brien, R. L. (2011). Taxing the poor: Doing damage to the truly disadvantaged. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.
Parisi, D., Lichter, D. T., & Taquino, M. (2011). Multi-scale residential segregation: Black exceptionalism and America’s changing color line. Social Forces, 89, 829–852.
Park, R. E. (1915). The city: Suggestions for the investigation of human behavior in the city environment. The American Journal of Sociology, 20, 577–612.
Passel, J. S., & Cohn, D. V. (2010). U.S. unauthorized immigration flows are down sharply since mid-decade. Washington, DC: Pew Hispanic Center.
Passel, J., Cohn, D. V., & Gonzalez-Barrera, A. (2012). Net migration from Mexico falls to zero—and perhaps less. Washington DC: Pew Hispanic Center.
Perez, A. D., & Hirschman, C. (2009). The changing racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. population: Emerging American identities. Population and Development Review, 35, 1–51.
Perlman, J. (2005). Italians then, Mexicans now. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Pettit, B. (2012). Invisible men: Mass incarceration and the myth of black progress. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Pettit, B., & Western, B. (2004). Mass imprisonment and the life course: Race and class inequality in U.S. incarceration. American Sociological Review, 69, 151–169.
Portes, A., & Vickstrom, E. (2011). Diversity, social capital, and cohesion. Annual Review of Sociology, 37, 461–479.
Portes, A., & Zhou, M. (1993). The new second generation: Segmented assimilation and its variants. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 530, 74–96.
Poterba, J. (1997). Demographic structure and the political economy of public education. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 16, 48–66.
Preston, S. H. (1984). Children and the elderly: Divergent paths for America’s dependents. Demography, 21, 435–457.
Putnam, R. D. (2007). E pluribus unum: Diversity and community in the twenty-first century. Scandinavian Political Studies, 30, 137–174.
Qian, Z., Glick, J. E., & Batson, C. D. (2012). Crossing boundaries: Nativity, ethnicity, and mate selection. Demography, 49, 651–675.
Qian, Z., & Lichter, D. T. (2007). Social boundaries and marital assimilation: Interpreting trends in racial and ethnic intermarriage. American Sociological Review, 72, 68–94.
Qian, Z., & Lichter, D. T. (2011). Changing patterns of interracial marriage in a multiracial society. Journal of Marriage and Family, 73, 1065–1084.
Quillian, L., & Campbell, M. E. (2003). Beyond black and white: The present and future of multiracial friendship segregation. American Sociological Review, 68, 540–566.
Raabe, T., & Beelmann, A. (2011). Development of ethnic, racial, and national prejudice in childhood and adolescence: A multinational meta-analysis of age differences. Child Development, 82, 1715–1737.
Reardon, S. F., & Bischoff, K. (2011). Growth in the residential segregation of families by income, 1970–2009. New York: Russell Sage Foundation and Brown University.
Reardon, S. F., Grewal, E. T., Kalogrides, D., & Greenberg, E. (2012). Brown fades: The end of court-ordered school desegregation and the resegregation of American public schools. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 31, 876–904.
Rebhun, U., & Malach, G. (2012). Demography, social prosperity, and the future of sovereign Israel. Israel Affairs, 18, 177–200.
Roscigno, V. J., Karafin, D. L., & Tester, G. (2009). The complexities and processes of racial housing discrimination. Social Problems, 56, 49–69.
Rosenfeld, M. J. (2008). Racial, educational, and religious endogamy in the United States: A comparative historical perspective. Social Forces, 87, 1–31.
Rosenfeld, M. J., & Thomas, R. J. (2012). Searching for a mate: The rise of the Internet as a social intermediary. American Sociological Review, 77, 523–547.
Ross, S. L., & Turner, M. A. (2005). Housing discrimination in metropolitan America: Explaining changes between 1989 and 2000. Social Problems, 52, 152–180.
Rude, J., & Herda, D. (2010). Best friends forever? Race and the stability of adolescent friendships. Social Forces, 89, 585–607.
Sampson, R. J., Morenoff, J. D., & Gannon-Rowley, T. (2002). Assessing “neighborhood effects”: Social processes and new directions in research. Annual Review of Sociology, 28, 443–478.
Sanders, J. (2002). Ethnic boundaries and identity in plural societies. Annual Review of Sociology, 28, 327–357.
Sanders, S., & Lichter, D. T. (2012, May). Born poor: Inequality among ethnoracial minorities and immigrants. Presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America, San Francisco.
Sassler, S., Cunningham, A., & Lichter, D. T. (2009). Intergenerational patterns of union formation and relationship quality. Journal of Family Issues, 30, 757–786.
Sassler, S., & Joyner, K. (2011). Social exchange and the progression of sexual relationships in emerging adulthood. Social Forces, 90, 223–245.
Sawhill, I. (2012, January 8). Opportunity in America: The disadvantages start at conception. New York Times, Room for Debate. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/01/08/is-the-us-still-a-land-of-opportunity/unplanned-pregnancies-perpetuate-a-cycle-of-poverty
Sharkey, P. (2012). Temporary integration, resilient inequality: Race and neighborhood change in the transition to adulthood. Demography, 49, 889–912.
Smeeding, T. M., Erikson, R., & Jäntti, M. (2012). Persistence, privilege, and parenting: The comparative study of intergenerational mobility. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Smith, T. W. (1999). Trendlets: Inter-racial friendships [and] the emerging 21st century American family. GSS News, 13, 3–4.
Spencer, R. (2011). Reproducing race: The paradox of generation mix. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Stainback, K., & Irvin, M. (2012). Workplace racial composition, perceived discrimination, and organizational attachment. Social Science Research, 41, 657–670.
Stevens, G., Ishizawa, H., & Escandell, X. (2012). Marrying into the American population: Pathways into cross-nativity marriages. International Migration Review, 46, 740–759.
Taylor, M. C., & Mateyka, P. J. (2011). Community influences on white racial attitudes: What matters and why? The Sociological Quarterly, 52, 220–243.
Taylor, P., Passel, J. S., Wang, W., Kiley, J., Velasco, G., & Dockterman, D. (2010). Marrying out: One-in-seven new U.S. marriages is interracial or interethnic. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center.
Telles, E. E. (2004). Race in another America: The significance of skin color in Brazil. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Telles, E. E., & Ortiz, V. (2008). Generations of exclusion: Mexican-Americans, assimilation and race. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Telles, E. E., & Sue, C. A. (2009). Race mixture: Boundary crossing in comparative perspective. Annual Review of Sociology, 35, 129–146.
Thomas, K. J. A. (2011). Familial influences on poverty among young children in black immigrant, U.S.-born black, and nonblack immigrant families. Demography, 48, 437–460.
Tienda, M. (2002). Demography and the social contract. Demography, 39, 587–616.
Tilly, C. (2004). Social boundary mechanisms. Philosophy of the Social Sciences, 34, 211–236.
U.S. Census Bureau. (2012a). 2012 national population projections. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2012.html
U.S. Census Bureau. (2012b). Methodology and assumptions for the 2012 national projections. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/population/projections/files/methodology/methodstatement12.pdf
U.S. Census Bureau. (2012c). Table 3. Poverty status, by age, race and Hispanic origin. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/people.html Accessed December 16, 2012.
U.S. Census Bureau. (2012d). Components of population change—States. Retrieved from http://www.allcountries.org/uscensus/22_components_of_population_change_states.html
U.S. Census Bureau. (2012e). Most children younger than age 1 are minorities, Census Bureau reports (Press release). Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb12-90.html
Van Hook, J., Brown, S. L., & Kwenda, N. M. (2004). A decomposition of trends in poverty among immigrant children. Demography, 41, 649–670.
Waldfogel, J. (2010). Britain’s war on poverty. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Waller, M. R., & Swisher, R. (2006). Fathers’ risk factors in fragile families: Implications for “healthy” relationships and father involvement. Social Problems, 53, 392–420.
Waters, M. C. (1990). Ethnic options: Choosing identities in America. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Western, B., Bloome, D., Sosnaud, B., & Tach, L. (2012). Economic insecurity and social stratification. Annual Review of Sociology, 38, 341–359.
White, M. J., & Glick, J. E. (2009). Achieving anew: How new immigrants do in American schools, jobs, and neighborhoods. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
Wildeman, C. (2010). Paternal incarceration and children’s physically aggressive behaviors: Evidence from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing study. Social Forces, 89, 285–309.
Wimmer, A. (2008). Elementary strategies of ethnic boundary making. Ethnic and Racial Studies, 31, 1025–1055.
Wimmer, A., & Lewis, K. (2010). Beyond and below racial homophily: ERG models of a friendship network documented on Facebook. The American Journal of Sociology, 116, 583–642.
Wood, R. G., McConnell, S., Moore, Q., Clarkwest, A., & Hsueh, J. (2012). The effects of building strong families: A healthy marriage and relationship skills education program for unmarried parents. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 31, 228–252.
Yancey, G. (2009). Cross-racial differences in the racial preferences of potential dating partners: A test of the alienation of African Americans and social domination orientation. The Sociological Quarterly, 50, 121–143.
Zhang, H. (2011). School desegregation and white flight revised: A spatial analysis from a metropolitan perspective. Urban Geography, 32, 1208–1226.
Zhang, Y., & Van Hook, J. (2009). Marital dissolution among interracial couples. Journal of Marriage and Family, 71, 95–107.
Zuberi, T., & Bonilla-Silva, E. (2008). White logic, white methods: Racism and methodology. New York: Rowman & Littlefield.
Acknowledgments
This article is a revised version of the presidential address presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America, May 4, 2012, in San Francisco. The author acknowledges the computing assistance of Scott Sanders and Richard Turner as well as helpful comments from Fenaba Addo, Richard Alba, Linda Burton, William A.V. Clark, Gordon DeJong, Mark Fossett, Samantha Friedman, Matthew Hall, Kenneth Johnson, Kara Joyner, Maria Krysan, Marlene Lee, Dean Lillard, John Logan, Steve Morgan, Kelly Musick, Dowell Myers, Domenico “Mimmo” Parisi, Zhenchao Qian, Marty Farnsworth Richie, Scott Sanders, Sharon Sassler, Stewart Tolnay, Kim Turner, Kim Weeden, Alexander Weinreb, Michael White, and two anonymous reviewers. Of course, the author alone is responsible for the views expressed in this article.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lichter, D.T. Integration or Fragmentation? Racial Diversity and the American Future. Demography 50, 359–391 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-013-0197-1
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-013-0197-1