Abstract
Uncertainties in tunnel projects show differences from other engineering projects due to their high variability in geological, hydrogeological, seismic, and geotechnical properties. Engineering geology, geophysical, and geotechnical parameters are needed to minimize these uncertainties. Construction of the Dudullu-Bostanci Metro is being carried out in the Asian section of Istanbul, which passes under the densely populated area from north to south. Earth pressure machines (EPB-TBMs) with a diameter of 6.57 m involve the construction of 14.3 km of Dudullu-Bostanci underground metro line and its 13 stations at an average depth of approximately 30 m. Increasing priority is given to large-scale engineering projects, such as tunnels, where uncertainty is a major risk factor. The aim of this study is to examine the uncertainties and risk sources in Dudullu-Bostanci Metro Line. As a result of uncertainty and risk assessments, tunneling with EPB-TBM method is applied in tunnel excavation, which is determined as the most appropriate method.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aliahmadi A, Sadjadi S, Jafari-Eskandari M (2011) Design a new intelligence expert decision making using game theory and fuzzy AHP to risk management in design, construction, and operation of tunnel projects (case studies: Resalat Tunnel). Int J Adv Manuf Technol 53:789–798
Andreottia G, Lai CG (2019) Use of fragility curves to assess the seismic vulnerability in the risk analysis of mountain tunnels. Tunn Undergr Space Technol 91:103008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2019.103008
Benardos AG, Kaliampakos DC (2004) Modelling TBM performance with artificial neural networks. Tunn Undergr Space Technol 19:597–605
Cacuci DG, Ionescu-Bujor M (2004) A comparative review of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of large-scale systems-II: Statistical methods. Nucl Sci Eng 147(3):204–217
Dubourg V, Sudret B (2014) Meta-model-based importance sampling for reliability sensitivity analysis. Struct Saf 49(1):27–36
GEODATA (2015) Dudullu-Bostanci ve Ümraniye-Ataşehir-Göztepe raylı sistem hatlarının uygulamaya esas kesin proje hizmetleri, hazirlik çalişmalari ve zemin saha etüdleri-Rapor 2B, Saha, Laboratuvar ve Jeolojik-Geoteknik Çalışmaları Mühendislik Raporu, Geodata Engineering S.p.A., DB-02B-F-R-GEN-GEO-007 Rev.1, Istanbul, 188 p. (In Turkish, Unpublished)
Hong E-S, Lee I-M, Shin H-S, Nam S-W, Kong J-S (2009) Quantitative risk evaluation based on event tree analysis technique: application to the design of shield TBM. Tunn Undergr Space Technol 24:269–277
IBB (İstanbul Büyük Şehir Belediyesi Deprem Risk Yönetimi ve Kentsel İyileştirme Daire Başkanliği, Deprem ve Zemin İnceleme Müdürlüğü) (2009) İstanbul Mikrobölgeleme Projesi Anadolu Yakasi, Cilt II, 852 s. http://www.ibb.gov.tr/tr-TR/SubSites/DepremSite/Documents/C_MİKROBÖLGELEME%20ANADOLU%(900)_2.pdf
Isaksson T, Stille H (2005) Model for estimation of time and cost for tunnel projects based on risk evaluation. Rock Mech Rock Eng 38:373–398
Kinkeldey C, MacEachren AM, Riveiro M, Schiewe J (2017) Evaluating the effect of visually represented geodata uncertainty on decision-making: systematic review, lessons learned, and recommendations. Cartogr Geogr Inf Sci 44:1–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/15230406.2015.1089792
Kulhawy FH, Mayne PW (1990) Manual on estimating soil properties for foundation design. Research Project 1493-6, Cornell University, New York.
Lark RM, Mathers SJ, Thorpe S, Arkley SLB, Morgan DJ, Lawrence DJD (2013) A statistical assessment of the uncertainty in a 3-D geological framework model. Proc Geol Assoc 124(6):946–958. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pgeola.2013.01.005
Lindley DV (2006) Understanding uncertainty, Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New Jersey, 250 pp. ISBN-13: 978-0470043837, ISBN-10: 0470043830
Pennington TW, Richards DP (2011) Understanding uncertainty: assessment and management of geotechnical risk in tunnel construction. GeoRisk ASCE:552–559
Schweizer D, Blum P, Butscher C (2017) Uncertainty assessment in 3-D geological models of increasing complexity. Solid Earth 8:515–530
Seyedrrzaei M, Koc E, Tumac D (2018) Single shield TBM performance analysis in mixed ground conditions: a case study in the Dudullu-Bostanci Metro Tunnel, Turkey, ITA - AITES World Tunnel Congress, Poster Paper Proceedings, 21 - 26 April 2018 Dubai International Convention & Exhibition Centre, UAE, 1-10
Shahriar K, Sharifzadeh M, Hamidi JK (2008) Geotechnical risk assessment based approach for rock TBM selection in difficult ground conditions. Tunn Undergr Space Technol 23:318–325
Sousa RL, Einstein HH (2012) Risk analysis during tunnel construction using Bayesian Networks: Porto Metro case study. Tunn Undergr Space Technol 27:86–100
Spackova O, Sejnoha J, Straub D (2013) Probabilistic assessment of tunnel construction performance based on data. J Tunn Undergr Space Technol 37:62–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2013.02.006
Stille H (2017) Geological uncertainties in tunnelling - risk assessment and quality assurance. In Sir Muir Wood Lecture 2017. The Int Tunn Undergr Space Assoc. Retrieved from http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211289
Sturk R, Olsson L, Johansson J (1996) Risk and decision analysis for large underground projects, as applied to the Stockholm Ring Road Tunnels. Tunn Undergr Space Technol 11(2):157–164
Tacher L, Pomian-Srzednicki I, Parriaux A (2006) Geological uncertainties associated with 3-D subsurface models. Comput Geosci 32:212–221. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2005.06.010
TERRATEC (2017) EPBMs get into gear on Istanbul’s new Dudullu-Bostanci Metro Line, Terratec Press Release, Release Number: 13138, 25 May 2017, 3 pp
Terzaghi K, Peck RB (1948) Soil mechanics in engineering practice, 1st edn. John Wiley & Sons, New York
Verzani LP, Russo G, Grasso P, Cabañas A (2015) The risk analysis applied to deep tunnels design-EL teniente new mine level access tunnels, Chile. Eng Geol Soc Territory 6:1023–1030. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09060-3-186
Wellmann JF, Horowitz FG, Schill E, RegenauerLieb K (2010) Towards incorporating uncertainty of structural data in 3-D geological inversion. Tectonophysics 490:141–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2010.04.022
Xia Y, Xiong Z, Dong X, Lu H (2017) Risk assessment and decision-making under uncertainty in tunnel and underground engineering. Entropy 19(549):1–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/e19100549
You K, Park Y, Lee JS (2005) Risk analysis for determination of a tunnel support pattern. Tunn Undergr Space Technol 20:479–486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tust.2005.03.002
Zhang G-H, Jiao Y-Y, Chen L-B, Wang H, Li S-C (2015) Analytical model for assessing collapse risk during mountain tunnel construction. Can Geotech J 53:326–342. https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2015-0064
Zhang L, Wu X, Zhu H, AbouRizk SM (2017) Performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis from given data in tunnel construction. J Comput Civ Eng ASCE 31(6):04017065 ISSN 0887-3801
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank the Tunneling Division’s SENBAY-KOLIN-KALYON Company engineers for their assistance in collecting the necessary information. The author wishes to thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for their very helpful comments and suggestions which allowed improving significantly the manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Zeynal Abiddin Erguler
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ozcelik, M. Examination of uncertainties and risk sources in Dudullu-Bostanci (Istanbul) Metro construction. Arab J Geosci 13, 355 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05400-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05400-z