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Application of a Weighted-Averaging Method for Determining Paleosalinity: A Tool for Restoration of South Florida’s Estuaries

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Abstract

A molluscan analogue dataset is presented in conjunction with a weighted-averaging technique as a tool for estimating past salinity patterns in south Florida’s estuaries and developing targets for restoration based on these reconstructions. The method, here referred to as cumulative weighted percent (CWP), was tested using modern surficial samples collected in Florida Bay from sites located near fixed water monitoring stations that record salinity. The results were calibrated using species weighting factors derived from examining species occurrence patterns. A comparison of the resulting calibrated species-weighted CWP (SW-CWP) to the observed salinity at the water monitoring stations averaged over a 3-year time period indicates, on average, the SW-CWP comes within less than two salinity units of estimating the observed salinity. The SW-CWP reconstructions were conducted on a core from near the mouth of Taylor Slough to illustrate the application of the method.

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Notes

  1. All modern data are available at http://sofia.usgs.gov/exchange/flaecohist/. See Appendix 1 in the ESM available in the online version of this article.

  2. Statewide precipitation data collected between 1895 and 2005 ranks the period from January 2000 through February 2001 as the fifth driest period on record for the state (http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov).

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Thomas M. Cronin and Harry J. Dowsett, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for their early reviews of the manuscript, and two anonymous reviewers whose thorough comments have improved the final version. The statistical components of this research have benefited greatly from discussions with Frank Marshall (Cetacean Logic Foundation), Harry Dowsett (USGS), and Lucy Edwards (USGS). Patrick Pitts (U.S. Fish & Wildlife) has provided valuable insights and kept us on track in our goal to develop a method applicable to restoration issues. Emily Philips (formerly USGS) and Bethany Stackhouse (USGS) prepared the map, and B. Stackhouse assisted in the final proofing of the data. This research was funded by the U.S. Geological Survey Priority Ecosystems South Florida Study Unit (coordinated by G. Ronnie Best, USGS). Everglades National Park and Biscayne National Park facilitated our field work; research was conducted under NPS study numbers EVER-00141 and BISC-02027. Numerous people have assisted with the field and lab work that contributed to development of the modern analogue dataset. We would especially like to thank James Murray and Rob Stamm (USGS); Jeffery Stone (University of Nebraska, Lincoln); Sara Schwede-Thomas, Carleigh Trappe, Carlos Budet, and Ruth Ortiz (former USGS contractors); and Thomas Scott (retired, Florida Geological Survey) and G. Harley Means (Florida Geological Survey). The staff at Keys Marine Lab, Layton, Florida provided boats and facilities over the years.

Conflict of Interest Notification Page

This work was funded entirely by the U.S. Geological Survey, for whom I work, and no conflict of interest exists because we are a science agency and do not have a regulatory mission. As a federal government agency, all data are part of the public domain, and can be provided in any format necessary if requested.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. U.S. Geological Survey, MS 926A National Center, Reston, VA, 20192, USA

    G. Lynn Wingard

  2. Department of Geological Sciences, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599, USA

    Joel W. Hudley

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Correspondence to G. Lynn Wingard.

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Appendix 1

The FULL data set, which includes the species in the CONFID dataset, plus species with fewer than ten observations and/or confidence interval of >5.0. Data are derived from a compilation of all presence/absence field observations made between 1995 and 2007. Data are not weighted based on how many individuals of a given taxonomic group were observed at a location. Dashes in “outliers removed” columns indicate no outliers for that taxa. Taxonomy consistent with Turgeon et al. (1998) (PDF 15 kb)

Appendix 2

Molluscan faunal count (>850 μm) from the upper 2-cm of thirty-five 10-cm push-core samples collected between 1998 and 2001 from eight locations in Florida Bay (Figs. 1 and 2). The count includes the pristine, whole, and broken fraction for adults and juveniles in the same taxonomic groupings as the modern analogue dataset. Species with no modern analogue data are shaded in gray and were excluded from calculations. Taxonomy was based on Turgeon et al. (1998) (PDF 22 kb)

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Wingard, G.L., Hudley, J.W. Application of a Weighted-Averaging Method for Determining Paleosalinity: A Tool for Restoration of South Florida’s Estuaries. Estuaries and Coasts 35, 262–280 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-011-9441-3

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