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A Simulation of Historic Hydrology and Salinity in Everglades National Park: Coupling Paleoecologic Assemblage Data with Regression Models

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Abstract

Restoration of Florida’s Everglades requires scientifically supportable hydrologic targets. This study establishes a restoration baseline by developing a method to simulate hydrologic and salinity conditions prior to anthropogenic changes. The method couples paleoecologic data on long-term historic ecosystem conditions with statistical models derived from observed meteorologic and hydrologic data that provide seasonal and annual variation. Results indicate that pre-drainage freshwater levels and hydroperiods in major sloughs of the Everglades were about 0.15 m higher and two to four times greater, respectively, on average compared to today’s values. Pre-drainage freshwater delivered to the wetlands and estuaries is estimated to be 2.5 to four times greater than the modern-day flow, and the largest deficit is during the dry season. In Florida Bay, salinity has increased between 5.3 and 20.1 with the largest differences in the areas near freshwater outflow points. These results suggest that additional freshwater flows to the Everglades are needed for restoration of the freshwater marshes of the Everglades and estuarine environment of Florida Bay, particularly near the end of the dry season.

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Acknowledgments

The modeling research was supported by the Critical Ecosystem Studies Initiative (ENP) and the RECOVER branch of the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. The paleoecologic work was supported by the U. S. Geological Survey Priority Ecosystems Studies—South Florida Study Unit. Special thanks to DeWitt Smith (ENP) and Cheryl Buckingham (USACE) for financial support and technical guidance, to Ronnie Best (USGS) and Lorraine Heisler (USF&WS) for implementing workshops on the application of paleoecologic data that led to this collaboration, and to David Hallac (ENP) for stimulating the initial discussions. We would like to thank Thomas M. Cronin and Debra A. Willard (USGS) for early reviews of this manuscript. Emily Philips (USGS) prepared the GIS map in Fig. 1.

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  1. Cetacean Logic Foundation, Inc., 109 Esther Street, New Smyrna Beach, FL, 32169, USA

    Frank E. Marshall III

  2. U. S. Geological Survey, MS 926A National Center, Reston, VA, 20192, USA

    G. Lynn Wingard

  3. U. S. Fish & Wildlife Service, 1339 20th Street, Vero Beach, FL, 32960, USA

    Patrick Pitts

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Marshall, F.E., Wingard, G.L. & Pitts, P. A Simulation of Historic Hydrology and Salinity in Everglades National Park: Coupling Paleoecologic Assemblage Data with Regression Models. Estuaries and Coasts 32, 37–53 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-008-9120-1

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