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Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate

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Abstract

The growth rate of solar activity in the early phase of a solar cycle has been known to be well correlated with the subsequent amplitude (solar maximum). It provides very useful information for a new solar cycle as its variation reflects the temporal evolution of the dynamic process of solar magnetic activities from the initial phase to the peak phase of the cycle. The correlation coefficient between the solar maximum (R max) and the rising rate (β a) at Δm months after the solar minimum (R min) is studied and shown to increase as the cycle progresses with an inflection point (r = 0.83) at about Δm = 20 months. The prediction error of R max based on β a is found within estimation at the 90% level of confidence and the relative prediction error will be less than 20% when Δm ⩾ 20. From the above relationship, the current cycle (24) is preliminarily predicted to peak around October, 2013 with a size of R max = 84 ± 33 at the 90% level of confidence.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Solar Activity, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China

    ZhanLe Du & HuaNing Wang

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  1. ZhanLe Du
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  2. HuaNing Wang
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Correspondence to ZhanLe Du.

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Du, Z., Wang, H. Predicting the solar maximum with the rising rate. Sci. China Phys. Mech. Astron. 55, 365–370 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11433-011-4612-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11433-011-4612-6

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