Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Somme River Basin (France)

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Modelling the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Somme watershed in northern France is investigated with a multimodel ensemble to probe the sensitivity of hydrologic response to uncertainties in climate projections provided by general circulation models. At the Somme watershed scale, the average decrease in predicted recharge from seven climate models is −18.7%. However, significant disparities appear between simulation results for different climate models. These variations are bounded between −30.4% for the most pessimistic model and − 5.6% for the most optimistic model. Moreover, seasonal gaps are markedly important. For all climate models, the impacts on groundwater levels would be greater on plateaus than in humid valleys. The water level changes would be on the order of −10 m on the plateaus for five climate models and between 0.2 m and 0.5 m in humid valleys. The impacts of two other climate models on water levels are rather low. In addition, the monthly average discharge of the Somme River and its tributaries is predicted to decrease by 2065. The seven-model average shows that the low outlet flow rate to the Somme basin would be reduced by 23% but with disparities between models. The decrease would be more severe in the Avre basin, with the minimal discharge reduced by 32%. This study is a first step towards addressing uncertainties in climate models such that an adaptive watershed management strategy could be devised for water resource managers.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen DM, Mackie DC, Wei M (2004) Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada. Hydrogeol J 12:270–290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amraoui N, Golaz C, Mardel V, Negrel PH, Petit V, Pinault J-L, Pointet TH (2002) Simulation par modèle des hautes eaux de la Somme. Report BRGM/RP-51827-FR

  • Amraoui N, Wuilleumier A, Thiery D, Caous JY, Noyer M-L, Gaudfefroy MJ (2004) Mise à jour du modèle des hautes eaux de la Somme. Report BRGM/RP-53211-FR

  • Amraoui N., Castillo C, Et Seguin J-J (2014) Evaluation de l’exploitabilité de ressource en eau souterraine de la nappe de la craie du bassin de la Somme. Report BRGM/RP-63408-FR

  • Banque hydro (2007) Banque nationale de données pour l’hydrométrie et l’hydrologie. Ministry of Ecological and solidarity Transition, France. http://hydro.eaufrance.fr

  • Boé J, Terray L, Habets F, Martin E (2006) A simple statistical-dynamical downscaling scheme based on weather types and conditional resampling. J Geophys Res 111:D23106. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006889

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brouyère S, Carabin G, Dassargues A (2004) Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium. Hydrogeol J 12:123–134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crampon NJ, Roux J-C, Bracq P (1993) Hydrogéologie de la craie en France. Hydrogéologie 2:81–123

    Google Scholar 

  • de Wit MJM, Hurk B, Warmerdam PMM, Torfs PJJF, Roulin E, Deursen WPA (2007) Impact of climate change on low-flows in the river Meuse. Clim Chang 82(3–4):351–372

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Finger D, Vis M, Huss M, Seibert J (2015) The value of multiple data set calibration versus model complexity for improving the performance of hydrological models in mountain catchments. Water Resour Res 51:1939–1958. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014WR015712

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gascoin S, Ducharne A, Ribstein P, Carli M, Habets F (2009) Adaptation of a catchment-based land surface model to the hydrogeological setting of the Somme River basin (France). J Hydrol 368(1–4):105–116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goderniaux P, Brouyère S, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Fowler HJ, Orban P, Dassargues A (2011) Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios. Water Resour Res 47:W12516. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR010082

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goderniaux P, Brouyère S, Wildemeersch S, Therrien R, Dassargues A (2015) Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves: application to a chalk aquifer. J Hydrol 528:108–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.018

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hannah L (2015) Climate change biology. 2nd Edition, Elsevier. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/C2013-0-12835-8

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Contributions of working groups I, II, and III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contributions of working groups I, II, and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  • Jackson CR, Meister R, Prudhomme C (2011) Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections. J Hydrol 399:12–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li W, Sankarasubramanian A (2012) Reducing hydrologic model uncertainty in monthly streamflow predictions using multimodel combinations. Water Resour Res 48:W12516. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011WR011380

    Google Scholar 

  • Loàciga HA (2003) Climate change and ground water. Annal Assoc Am Geogr 2(1):30–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mathias SA, Butler A, McIntyre N, Wheater HS (2005) The significance of flow in the matrix of the chalk unsaturated zone. J Hydrol 310(1–4):62–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Milly PCD, Dunne KA, Vecchia AV (2005) Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438:347–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nohara D, Kitoh A, Hosaka M, Oki T (2006) Impact of climate change on river discharge projected by multimodel ensemble. J Hydrometeorol 7:1076–1089

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pointet T, Amraoui N, Golaz C, Mardhel V, Ph N, Pennequin D, Pinault J-L (2003) Contribution of groundwaters to the exceptional flood of the Somme river in 2001, observation, assumptions, modeling. La Houille Blanche 6:112–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Price M (1993) Groundwater movement in the chalk aquifer in England. Hydrogéologie 2:147–150

    Google Scholar 

  • Quintana-Seguí P, Le Moigne P et al (2008) Analysis of near-surface atmospheric variables: validation of the SAFRAN analysis over France. J App Meteo Clim 47:92–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roux J-C (1965) Hydrogéologie du bassin de la Somme. Bulletin BRGM 3:1–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Roux J-C (1978) Les écoulements de type karstique dans la craie de Normandie. Mémoires BRGM 1:531–553

    Google Scholar 

  • Scibek J, Allen DM (2006) Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels. Water Resour Res 42:W11405. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004742

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skoulikaris C, Ganoulis J (2011) Assessing climate change impacts at river basin scale by integrating global circulation models with regional hydrological simulations. Eur Water 34:55–62

    Google Scholar 

  • Sulis M, Paniconi C, Marrocu M, Huard D, Chaumont D (2012) Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions. Water Resour Res 48:W12510. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012WR012304

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor RG, Scanlon B et al (2013) Ground water and climate change. Nat Clim Change 3:322–329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thiéry D. (2015a) Validation du code de calcul GARDÉNIA par modélisations physiques comparatives. Report BRGM/RP-64500-FR

  • Thiéry D (2015b) Code de calcul MARTHE – Modélisation 3D des écoulements dans les hydrosystèmes - Notice d’utilisation de la version 7.5. Rapport BRGM/RP-64554-FR

  • Thiéry D, Amraoui N, Noyer ML (2018) Modelling flow and heat transfer through unsaturated chalk – validation with experimental data from the ground surface to the aquifer. J Hydrol 556C:660–673

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vidal JP, Martin E, Franchistéguy L, Baillon M, Soubeyroux JM (2010) A 50-year high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the SAFRAN system. J Climatol 30:1627–1644

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilby RL, Harris I (2006) A framework for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low-flow scenarios for the river Thames, UK. Water Resour Res 42:W02419. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005WR004065

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilby RL, Whitehead PG, Wade AJ, Butterfield D, Davies RJ, Watts G (2006) Integrated modeling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: river Kennet, UK. J Hydrol 330:204–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu C (1999) Climate change and hydrologic models: a review of existing gaps and recent research developments. Water Resour Manag 13(5):369–382

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by a research grant within the “EXPLORE 2070” project supported by the French Ministry of Ecological and solidarity Transition. Thanks to all reviewers for their constructive comments, which greatly improve the paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Environment and Ecotechnologies Division, BRGM, 3, Avenue Claude-Guillemin, BP. 36009, 45060, Orléans Cedex 2, France

    N. Amraoui, M. A. Sbai & P. Stollsteiner

Authors
  1. N. Amraoui
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. M. A. Sbai
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. P. Stollsteiner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to N. Amraoui.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors do not have any conflict of interest to report.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Amraoui, N., Sbai, M.A. & Stollsteiner, P. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Somme River Basin (France). Water Resour Manage 33, 2073–2092 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02230-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-019-02230-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation