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Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium

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Abstract

An integrated hydrological model (MOHISE) was developed in order to study the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in representative water basins in Belgium. This model considers most hydrological processes in a physically consistent way, more particularly groundwater flows which are modelled using a spatially distributed, finite-element approach. Thanks to this accurate numerical tool, after detailed calibration and validation, quantitative interpretations can be drawn from the groundwater model results. Considering IPCC climate change scenarios, the integrated approach was applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water cycle in the Geer basin in Belgium. The groundwater model is described in detail, and results are discussed in terms of climate change impact on the evolution of groundwater levels and groundwater reserves. From the modelling application on the Geer basin, it appears that, on a pluri-annual basis, most tested scenarios predict a decrease in groundwater levels and reserves in relation to variations in climatic conditions. However, for this aquifer, the tested scenarios show no enhancement of the seasonal changes in groundwater levels.

Résumé

Un modèle hydrologique intégré (MOHISE) a été développé afin d’étudier l’impact du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique de bassins versants représentatifs de Belgique. Ce modèle prend en compte tous les processus hydrologiques d’une manière physiquement consistante, plus particulièrement les écoulements souterrains qui sont modélisés par une approche spatialement distribuée aux éléments finis. Grâce à cet outil numérique précis, après une calibration et une validation détaillées, des interprétations quantitatives peuvent être réalisées à partir des résultats du modèle de nappe. Considérant des scénarios de changements climatiques de l’IPCC, l’approche intégrée a été appliquée pour évaluer l’impact du changement climatique sur le cycle de l’eau du bassin du Geer en Belgique. Le modèle de nappe est décrit en détail et les résultats sont discutés en terme d’impact du changement climatique sur l’évolution des réserves souterraines. Les premiers résultats indiquent que des déficits d’eau souterraine peuvent apparaître dans le futur en Belgique.

Resumen

Se ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico integrado (MOHISE) para estudiar el impacto del cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de cuencas representativas en Bélgica. Este modelo considera todos los procesos hidrológicos de forma coherente, especialmente en relación con los flujos de aguas subterráneas, que son modelados por medio de un enfoque de elementos finitos espacialmente distribuidos. Gracias a esta herramienta numérica precisa, y tras una calibración y validación detalladas, se puede obtener interpretaciones cuantitativas de los resultados del modelo del acuífero. Considerando escenarios de cambio climático IPCC, se ha aplicado el enfoque integrado a la evaluación del impacto de dicho cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de la cuenca del Geer. Se describe los detalles y resultados del modelo de las aguas subterráneas en términos del impacto del cambio climático en la evolución de las reservas de los acuíferos. Los resultados preliminares indican que es posible esperar déficits de aguas subterráneas en un futuro en Bélgica.

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Acknowledgement

This study corresponds to a groundwater part of the project ‘Integrated Modelling of the Hydrological Cycle in Relation to Global Climate Change’ (CG/DD/08) supported by the Prime Minister’s Office—Federal Office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs of Belgium in the scope of the general program ‘Global Change Sustainable Development’. The authors would like to thank the other teams involved in the project for their fruitful cooperation, Jean Houard who helped to improve the quality of the English of the manuscript, and Perry Olcott, Ian Holman and an anonymous reviewer whose comments helped to improve the quality and the content of the manuscript.

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Author notes

  1. Guy Carabin

    Present address: Numeca International, Avenue F. Roosevelt, Brussels, Belgium

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hydrogeology Group, Department of Georesources, Geotechnologies and Building Materials, University of Liège, Building B52, 4000, Sart Tilman, Belgium

    Serge Brouyère, Guy Carabin & Alain Dassargues

  2. Hydrogeology & Engineering Geology Group, Department of Geology-Geography, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Redingenstraat 16, 3000, Leuven, Belgium

    Alain Dassargues

Authors
  1. Serge Brouyère
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  2. Guy Carabin
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  3. Alain Dassargues
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Correspondence to Serge Brouyère.

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Brouyère, S., Carabin, G. & Dassargues, A. Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium. Hydrogeology Journal 12, 123–134 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-003-0293-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-003-0293-1

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