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The Drought Characteristics Using the First-Order Homogeneous Markov Chain of Monthly Rainfall Data in Peninsular Malaysia

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Abstract

Drought characteristics are important in designing the program and measures for drought mitigation and they have been used extensively by various parties in many countries. In Malaysia, the information of drought conditions and identification of drought prone areas is very limited. This study seeked to determine the drought profiles of Peninsular Malaysia using the first order homogeneous Markov chain based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) of one-month time-scale. Monthly readings of rainfall data from 35 monitoring stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1970–2008 were used in the study. The procedure involved deriving the steady-state probabilities of drought events, the mean residence time for each drought category, the mean recurrence time of drought events and the mean first passage time. Analysis results showed that the longest moderate drought occurred mostly in the northwestern region of Peninsular Malaysia, while severe drought with low duration happened frequently in the middle region. The maximum duration of the severe drought condition is 2 months with majority of the severe drought areas requiring approximately 2 to 3 months to reach a non-drought condition. These results are likely to yield important insight on how to minimise the impacts of severe drought for agriculture and to avoid decadence of the water supply in areas with higher risk of severe drought. Such information would be beneficial to the agriculture planners and water resource management.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia for providing the valuable data. We are grateful to the government of South Sulawesi province for the financial support for the first author. This research was funded by grants by Ministry of Higher Education and Ministry of Science and Technology, Malaysia under grant codes FRGS/1/2013/ST06/UKM/02/2 and 06-01-02-SF0953.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Negeri Makassar, 90224, Parangtambung Makassar, Sulawesi Selatan, Indonesia

    Wahidah Sanusi

  2. School of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600, Bangi, Selangor DE, Malaysia

    Abdul Aziz Jemain, Wan Zawiah Wan Zin & Marina Zahari

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  1. Wahidah Sanusi
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  2. Abdul Aziz Jemain
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  3. Wan Zawiah Wan Zin
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  4. Marina Zahari
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Correspondence to Wahidah Sanusi.

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Sanusi, W., Jemain, A.A., Zin, W.Z.W. et al. The Drought Characteristics Using the First-Order Homogeneous Markov Chain of Monthly Rainfall Data in Peninsular Malaysia. Water Resour Manage 29, 1523–1539 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0892-8

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