Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The Regional Limit of Flood-Bearing Capability: A Theoretical Model and Approaches

  • Published:
Water Resources Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A series of interesting questions will be proposed and tried to be answered in this paper such as: Is there a limit of disaster-bearing capability in a region human-environment system (HES) when the system is hit by an extreme flood disaster? If so, what does it mean and how can it be explained? An assumption, naming the regional limit of flood-bearing capability (LFBC), is suggested and proved to respond these questions in this study. The LFBC model consists of three factors, namely, the disaster-causing factor (DCF), disaster-bearing factor (DBF) and disaster-regulating factor (DRF). The DCF can be selected from the cause analysis of flood, the DBF can be extracted from analysis of flood risk and vulnerability, and the DRF is responding to the analysis of flood risk management and measures. The logical relations among the three factors are determined by the analysis of flood inundation-loss models. The limit of disaster-bearing capability in regional HES is introduced by the principles of threshold analysis in terms of large-scale system theory, and can be expressed as the regional inundated depth or the amount of water in a flood. The LFBC model is built up following this idea, and approaches of its application are stated with the support of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS). Substantial changes in terms of system succession, such as reservoir resettlement, population migration and land use pattern change, would occur only when extreme flood beyond its limit of disaster-bearing capability in a regional HES. Otherwise, the difference can be use to measures the damage conditions. Combining the occurrence probability of extreme flood, the LFBC model could be used to provide the data support for flood damage assessment, regional disaster control and reduction countermeasures, and regional development planning.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alwan M, Liu X, Ingalls B (2008) Exponential stability of singularly perturbed switched systems with time delay. Nonlinear Anal Hybrid Syst 2:913–921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arnaud-Fassetta G, Cossart E, Fort M (2005) Hydro-geomorphic hazards and impact of man-made structures during the catastrophic flood of June 2000 in the Upper Guil catchment (Queyras, Southern French Alps). Geomorphology 66:41–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camarasa-Belmonte AM, Soriano-García J (2012) Flood risk assessment and mapping in peri-urban Mediterranean environments using hydrogeomorphology. Application to ephemeral streams in the Valencia region (eastern Spain). Landsc Urban Plan 104:189–200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castellarin A, Domeneghetti A, Brath A (2011) Identifying robust large-scale flood risk mitigation strategies: a quasi-2D hydraulic model as a tool for the Po river. Phys Chem Earth 36:299–308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Charalambous J, Rahman A, Carroll D (2013) Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique to design flood estimation: a case study for North Johnstone River in Queensland, Australia. Water Resour Manag 27:4099–4111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y (1988) Large scale system theory and its application. Tsinghua University Press, Beijing (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen L (2011) Flood and Xijiang River watershed ancient city: a study on Wuzhou city site selection. J Sanmenxia Polytech 10(1):107–113 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen Y, Hsu Y, Kuo K (2013) Uncertainties in the methods of flood discharge measurement. Water Resour Manag 27:153–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cimellaro GP, Reinhorn AM, Bruneau M (2010) Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience. Eng Struct 32:3639–3649

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delgoda DK, Saleem SK, Halgamuge MN, Malano H (2013) Multiple model predictive flood control in regulated river systems with uncertain inflows. Water Resour Manag 27:765–790

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diakakis M (2011) A method for flood hazard mapping based on basin morphometry: application in two catchments in Greece. Nat Hazards 56:803–814

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fang X, Yi Y, Zeng Z (2006) Interaction between extreme climate events, migration reclamation and policy management: northeast China migration offsite response to North China floods and droughts during 1661 to 1680. China Sci D Earth Sci 36(7):680–688 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Frazier AE, Renschler CS, Miles SB (2013) Evaluating post-disaster ecosystem resilience using MODIS GPP data. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinformation 21:43–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gabriel AO, Kreutzwiser RD, Stewart CJ (1997) Great lakes flood thresholds and impacts. J Great Lakes Res 23(3):286–296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansson SO, Helgesson G (2003) What is stability? Synthese 136:219–235

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heberger M, Cooley H, Herrera P et al (2011) Potential impacts of increased coastal flooding in California due to sea-level rise. Clim Chang 109(S1):229–249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heming L, Rees P (2000) Population displacement in the Three Gorges reservoir area of the Yangtze River, central China: Relocation policies and migrant views. Int J Popul Geogr 6(6):439–462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Henry D, Ramirez-Marquez JE (2012) Generic metrics and quantitative approaches for system resilience as a function of time. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 99:114–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jonkman SN (2005) Global perspectives on loss of human life caused by floods. Nat Hazards 34:151–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ju M (2007) Natural disaster and its social impact in Ming Dynasty. Jiangxi Soc Sci 7:20–23 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Klijn F, de Bruijn KM, Knoop J, Kwadijk J (2012) Assessment of the Netherlands’ flood risk management policy under global change. AMBIO 41:180–192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linnekamp F, Koedam A, Baud ISA (2011) Household vulnerability to climate change: examining perceptions of households of flood risks in Georgetown and Paramaribo. Habitat Int 35:447–456

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luino F, Cirio CG, Biddoccu M et al (2009) Application of a model to the evaluation of flood damage. Geoinformatica 13:339–353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lumbroso D, Stone K, Vinet F (2011) An assessment of flood emergency plans in England and Wales, France and the Netherlands. Nat Hazards 58:341–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manjusree P, Kumar LP, Bhatt CM et al (2012) Optimization of threshold ranges for rapid flood inundation mapping by evaluating backscatter profiles of high incidence angle SAR images. Int J Disaster Risk Sci 3(2):113–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marino E (2012) The long history of environmental migration: assessing vulnerability construction and obstacles to successful relocation in Shishmaref, Alaska. Glob Environ Chang 22(3):374–381

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McLeman R, Hunter LM (2010) Migration in the context of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: insights from analogues. Wiley Interdisc Rev Clim Chang 1:450–461

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mens MJP, Klijn F, de Bruijn KM, van Beek E (2011) The meaning of system robustness for flood risk management. Environ Sci Policy 14:1121–1131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyer V, Scheuer S, Haase D (2009) A multicriteria approach for flood risk mapping exemplified at the Mulde river, Germany. Nat Hazards 48:17–39

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moel H, Aerts JCJH, Koomen E (2011) Development of flood exposure in the Netherlands during the 20th and 21st century. Glob Environ Chang 21:620–627

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Niu S (2001) Review population migration from Shandong province to Northeast China. J Yantai Teach Univ (Philos Soc Sci Ed) 18(1):57–61 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Parker DJ, Priest SJ (2012) The fallibility of flood warning chains: can Europe’s flood warnings be effective? Water Resour Manag 26:2927–2950

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ponce RD, Vásquez F, Stehr A et al (2011) Estimating the economic value of landscape losses due to flooding by hydropower plants in the Chilean Patagonia. Water Resour Manag 25:2449–2466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poulard C, Lafont M, Lenar-Matyas A, Łapuszek M (2010) Flood mitigation designs with respect to river ecosystem functions—a problem oriented conceptual approach. Ecol Eng 36:69–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Priest SJ, Parker DJ, Hurford AP, Walker J, Evans K (2011) Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales. J Environ Manag 92:3038–3048

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qi H, Qi P, Altinakar MS (2013) GIS-based spatial Monte Carlo analysis for integrated flood management with two dimensional flood simulation. Water Resour Manag 27:3631–3645

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reavill LRP, Rahman TG (1995) A Systems-science-based analysis of the factors that influence and aggravate the effects of flooding in Bangladesh. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 49:89–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roughani M, Ghafouri M, Tabatabaei M (2007) An innovative methodology for the prioritization of sub-catchments for flood control. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinformation 9:79–87

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schelfaut K, Pannemans B, van der Craats I et al (2011) Bringing flood resilience into practice: the FREEMAN project. Environ Sci Policy 14:825–833

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sena JA, Deus LAB, Freitas MAV, Costa L (2012) Extreme events of droughts and floods in Amazonia: 2005 and 2009. Water Resour Manag 26:1665–1676

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharma CS, Behera MD, Mishra A, Panda SN (2011) Assessing flood induced land-cover changes using remote sensing and fuzzy approach in Eastern Gujarat (India). Water Resour Manag 25:3219–3246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shiau J, Chen C, Tsai C (2012) Physiographic drainage-inundation model based flooding vulnerability assessment. Water Resour Manag 26:1307–1323

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tapia-Silva F, Itzerott S, Foerster S et al (2011) Estimation of flood losses to agricultural crops using remote sensing. Phys Chem Earth 36:253–265

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsakiris G, Spiliotis M (2011) Planning against long term water scarcity: a fuzzy multicriteria approach. Water Resour Manag 25:1103–1129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turney CSM, Brown H (2007) Catastrophic early Holocene sea level rise, human migration and the Neolithic transition in Europa. Rapid Commun 26:2036–2041

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang X (2007) About flood in Zhili area and governmental relief in the sixth and seventh year of the region of emperor Jiaqing. Chin Soc Hist Comment 8:305–316 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang T, Fai J, Zhou J (2012) The priliminary probe to the relations between flood disaster and the vicissitude of the cities in the upriver reaches of Weihe River from 1400 to1899. J Arid Land Resour Environ 26(2):61–65 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wright L, Chinowsky P, Strzepek K et al (2012) Estimated effects of climate change on flood vulnerability of U.S. bridges. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 17:939–955

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu H (2010) The change of man-land relationship of Huaihe River valley in Yuan, Ming and Qing Dynasties. Hist Stud Jianghuai Basin 4:103–105 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wunsch A, Herrmann U, Kreibich H, Thieken AH (2009) The role of disaggregation of asset values in flood loss estimation: a comparison of different modeling approaches at the Mulde River, Germany. Environ Manag 44:524–541

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xi Y (1988) An introduction to dynamic large-scale system method. National Defense Industry Press, Beijing (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xia Y (2008) A study on flood disaster and famine policy of the Western Han Dynasty. J Inn Mong Agric Univ (Soc Sci Ed) 10(5):379–381 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Xia J, Falconer RA, Lin B, Tan G (2011) Numerical assessment of flood hazard risk to people and vehicles in flash floods. Environ Model Softw 26:987–998

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu G (1992) The studies on waterlogging damage in Jianghan Plain using DEM. Chin Geogr Sci 2(1):87–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu G (1993) The interpretation of remote sensing image of flooding period in the Sihu region. Remote Sens Environ 8(4):270–277 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu G (1994a) Study on the damage of the “91.7” rainstorm in Sihu drainage area with remote sensing application technique. J Environ Sci 6(2):155–163

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu G (1994b) Primary studies of flood and waterlogging damages using remote sensing in Jianghan plain. Adv Water Sci 5(1):64–70 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu G, Wang C (1996) The disaster-bearing limit and condition estimation of flood and waterlogging damages. J Basic Sci Eng 4(4):371–377 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu G, Wang C, Zhong Y, Zou S, Zhang J, Zhao J (1996) Information extraction and loss estimation of flood waterlogging damage based on DEM. Remote Sens Land Resour 1:59–66 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu G, Zhang J, Wang C, He Y (1998) The disaster-bearing limit for flood and waterlogging damages based on the GIS/RS. J Remote Sens 2(2):112–118 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Yu G, Feng J, Che Y et al (2010) The identification and assessment of ecological risks for land consolidation based on the anticipation of ecosystem stabilization: a case study in Hubei Province, China. Land Use Policy 27(2):293–303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu G, Yu Q, Hu L et al (2013) Ecosystem health assessment based on analysis of a land use database. Appl Geogr 44:154–164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu G, Zhang S, Yu Q et al (2014) Assessing ecological security at the watershed scale based on RS/GIS: a case study from the Hanjiang River Basin. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 28:307–318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang W (2007) A study of the flood during Eastern-Han Dynasty in Henan. J N China Inst Water Conservancy Hydroelectric Power (Soc Sci) 23(5):129–130 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang R, Sun D, Yu Y et al (2012) Validation of the GOES-R ABI flood and standing water algorithm using gauging station measurements and interpretation maps. Remote Sens Environ 123:483–495

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The work is funded by the Natural Science Fund of China (Nos: 40771088, 41001125 and 41071069), the Natural Science Fund of Hubei Province, China (2008CDB046). The authors would like to thank Sedem Akorkor Deih for improving the English language and express our thanks to the anonymous reviewers and the Editor for useful ideas for improvement. Any errors and views expressed in this paper are the sole responsibility of the authors.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Global Change and Disasters, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, 430079, China

    Guangming Yu, Sa Wang, Qiwu Yu, Lei Wu, Yong Fan, Xiaoli He, Xia Zhou, Huanhuan Jia, Shu Zhang & Xiaojuan Tian

Authors
  1. Guangming Yu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Sa Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Qiwu Yu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Lei Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Yong Fan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Xiaoli He
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Xia Zhou
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Huanhuan Jia
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Shu Zhang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Xiaojuan Tian
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guangming Yu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Yu, G., Wang, S., Yu, Q. et al. The Regional Limit of Flood-Bearing Capability: A Theoretical Model and Approaches. Water Resour Manage 28, 1921–1936 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0580-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0580-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation