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The Fallibility of Flood Warning Chains: Can Europe’s Flood Warnings Be Effective?

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Abstract

Taking a broad overview, this paper explores recent evidence on flood forecasting, warning communication and public warning response in Europe between 1995 and 2010. Key flood warning chain deficiencies are identified together with the effect these deficiencies have on flood warning effectiveness and loss reduction. Europe-wide data on flood forecasting and warning communication are examined alongside recent in-depth research evidence from various parts of Europe on flood warning receipt, warning response and warning effectiveness. Using the latest flood warning benefit assessment methodologies, the results of case studies of flood loss avoidance through warnings reveal the damage saving potential of flood warning. Although these savings are significant, currently they are inhibited by a series of shortcomings which transfer through the warning chain limiting warning impact. Flood forecasting, warning and warning response systems are inherently fallible and so it is doubtful that they will ever be consistently effective. Sole reliance upon them to protect life and property carries inevitable risks and governments should not be surprised when flood warnings are only partially effective. Although Europe’s flood forecasting and warnings have been improving, the scope for further improvement is large. Extending flood forecasting and warning coverage, extending warning lead times by combining meteorological and hydrological forecasts, building greater redundancy into warning communication, and crucially also building it into cooperative strategies designed to engage at risk communities in flood warning response, are all likely to be important.

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Notes

  1. Europe is broadly defined and includes the European Union member states; candidate and potential candidate countries such as Iceland, Turkey and Serbia; Norway; Western Russia and a number of western former Soviet Republics including Belarus and Ukraine.

  2. The WMO data set includes questionnaire responses from hydrological advisors and others in meteorological and flood forecasting agencies. Notable exclusions are France, Italy and Hungary and some of the smaller Balkan states e.g. Slovenia and Bosnia Herzegovina.

  3. Flood forecast lead time may be defined as the time between when a flood is forecast and flooding occurs; flood warning lead time is the time between the issuing or receipt of a warning and flooding occurring.

  4. an EU 6th Framework Programme designed to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting

  5. Key informant surveys in Hungary, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK reveal that dependence on flood warnings is important and growing in these countries.

  6. ‘Push’ warnings are ones which are not sought by the receiver (e.g. a knock on the door, flood sirens) whereas ‘pull’ warnings are ones which a receiver seeks and acquires (e.g. by accessing a warning webpage), sometimes through a request to the provider (e.g. through a telephone call).

  7. Flood Hazard Research Centre Flood Damage Avoided

  8. Self-regulation is when individuals have their own ideas about what is appropriate or inappropriate behaviour and choose actions accordingly.

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  1. Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, Trent Park, Bramley Road, London, N14 4YZ, UK

    D. J. Parker & S. J. Priest

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  1. D. J. Parker
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Parker, D.J., Priest, S.J. The Fallibility of Flood Warning Chains: Can Europe’s Flood Warnings Be Effective?. Water Resour Manage 26, 2927–2950 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0057-6

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