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Patents in nanotechnology: an analysis using macro-indicators and forecasting curves

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Abstract

In this study, we evaluated future trends of worldwide patenting in nanotechnology and its domains using logistic growth curves while the patent activity from the main countries, technological domains and subdomains were assessed in four different contexts: worldwide, patents filed in the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), and patents applications in the triadic (TRIAD) and in the tetradic (TETRAD) countries. The indicators were developed based on a set of records recovered from the Derwent Innovation Index database. Nanotechnology has recently emerged as a new research field, with logistic trend behaviors generating interesting discussions since they suggest that technological development in nanotechnology and its domains has reached an initial maturation stage. Future scenarios were compiled due to the difficult to establish upper limits to forecasting curves. Although China’s share of patents is small in some cases, it was the only country to constantly increase the number of patents from a worldwide perspective. In contrast, the USA and the EU were the most active in the USPTO, TRIAD and TETRAD cases, followed by Japan and Korea. The technological subdomains of main interest from countries/region changed according to the perspective adopted, even though there was a clear bias towards semiconductors, surface treatments, electrical components, macromolecular chemistry, materials–metallurgy, pharmacy–cosmetics and analysis–measurement–control subdomains. We conclude that monitoring nanotechnology advances should be constantly reviewed in order to confirm the evidence observed and forecasted.

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Notes

  1. A patent family is a core of published patent documents referring to the same invention and applied in different countries by way of the priority or priorities of a particular patent document. A patent document can be referred to as an applied or a granted patent.

  2. The European Union patent documents included patents from Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, France, Finland, Greece, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and European Patent Office.

  3. The worldwide perspective is the total dataset collected.

  4. This category refers to patent families with at least one US patent number filed at USPTO.

  5. The TRIAD patents are patent families with at least one US patent number, one EPO patent number and one JPO patent number about the same invention.

  6. The TETRAD patents are patent families with at least one US patent number, one EPO patent number, one JPO patent number, and one SIPO patent number about the same invention.

  7. We performed an analysis from scientific publications indexed in the science citation index expanded and social science citation index from 2000 to 2010 using the modular search strategy for nanotechnology (Porter et al. 2008). On average, scientific publications went up by 13.09 % in the period considered and the annual growth rates of 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 were 15.57, 7.79, 8.93 and 13.81 %, respectively.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to the Brazilian National Council for Technological and Scientific Development (process number 160087/2011-2), the São Paulo Research Foundation (process number 2012/16573-7) and the Graduate Program in Materials Science and Engineering at the Federal University of São Carlos for supporting this work. We also acknowledge anonymous reviewers and the researchers from the 14th ISSI Conference for the rich discussion and the contributions of the journal’s anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Materials Engineering Department, Center for Technological Information in Materials, Federal University of São Carlos, Rod. Washington Luís, Km 235, São Carlos, SP, 13565-905, Brazil

    Douglas Henrique Milanez, Leandro Innocentini Lopes de Faria, Roniberto Morato do Amaral & José Angelo Rodrigues Gregolin

  2. Materials Engineering Department, Laboratory of Amorphous and Nanocrystalline Metals, Federal University of São Carlos, Rod. Washington Luís, Km 235, São Carlos, SP, 13565-905, Brazil

    Daniel Rodrigo Leiva

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  1. Douglas Henrique Milanez
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  3. Roniberto Morato do Amaral
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  5. José Angelo Rodrigues Gregolin
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Correspondence to Douglas Henrique Milanez.

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Milanez, D.H., de Faria, L.I.L., do Amaral, R.M. et al. Patents in nanotechnology: an analysis using macro-indicators and forecasting curves. Scientometrics 101, 1097–1112 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-014-1244-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-014-1244-4

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