Abstract
Seismic hazard maps are constructed by extrapolating from the frequency of small earthquakes, the annual probability of large, infrequent, earthquakes. Combining the potential contribution from all seismically active volumes, one calculates the peak ground acceleration with a probability to be exceeded by 10 % in 50 years at any given point. The consequential risk, the losses to be expected, derives from the damage the calculated shaking causes to buildings, and the impact on occupants due to collapsing structures. We show that the numbers of fatalities in recent disastrous earthquakes were underestimated by the world seismic hazard maps by approximately two to three orders of magnitude. Thus, seismic hazard maps based on the standard method cannot be used to estimate the risk to which the population is exposed due to large earthquakes.
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Acknowledgments
M. W. thanks the JTI Foundation, based in Switzerland, A. N. and V. K. thank the Russian Foundation for Basic Research for support. A. N. was visiting Structure and Non-linear Dynamics of the Earth Group (SAND Group) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (Trieste, Italy).
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Wyss, M., Nekrasova, A. & Kossobokov, V. Errors in expected human losses due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates. Nat Hazards 62, 927–935 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0125-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0125-5