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Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

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Abstract

We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Y. Wada and M. Bierkens for the groundwater depletion data, and R. Riva and P. Stocchi for the GIA data. We thank 3 reviewers for commenting on the manuscript. We acknowledge the WRCP’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups listed in OR-Table 1 for producing and making available their model output. MSS_CNES_CLS11 was produced by CLS Space Oceanography Division and distributed by AVISO, with support from CNES (http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com). A.S. is supported by SRON (ALW-GO-AO/07-14). M.C. and D.S. are supported through the DFG funded CLISAP excellence initiative.

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  1. A. B. A. Slangen

    Present address: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CMAR), GPO Box 1538, Hobart, TAS 7001, Australia

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht (IMAU), Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    A. B. A. Slangen & R. S. W. van de Wal

  2. Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53, D-20146, Hamburg, Germany

    M. Carson, A. Köhl & D. Stammer

  3. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730, AE De Bilt, The Netherlands

    C. A. Katsman

  4. Delft Climate Institute, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, TU Delft, Kluyverweg 1, 2629, HS Delft, The Netherlands

    L. L. A. Vermeersen

  5. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Landsdiep 4, 1797, SZ ’t Horntje, The Netherlands

    L. L. A. Vermeersen

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  1. A. B. A. Slangen
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Slangen, A.B.A., Carson, M., Katsman, C.A. et al. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes. Climatic Change 124, 317–332 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9

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