Abstract
This work was aimed at assessing the role of climate extremes in climate change impact assessment of typical winter and summer Mediterranean crops by using Regional Circulation Model (RCM) outputs as drivers of a modified version of the CropSyst model. More specifically, climate change effects were investigated on sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) development and yield under the A2 and B2 scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The direct impact of extreme climate events (i.e. heat stress at anthesis stage) was also included. The increase in both mean temperatures and temperature extremes under A2 and B2 scenarios (2071–2100) resulted in: a general advancement of the main phenological stages, shortening of the growing season and an increase in the frequency of heat stress during anthesis with respect to the baseline (1961–1990). The potential impact of these changes on crop yields was evaluated. It was found that winter and summer crops may possess a different fitting capacity to climate change. Sunflower, cultivated in the southern regions of the Mediterranean countries, was more prone to the direct effect of heat stress at anthesis and drought during its growing cycle. These factors resulted in severe yield reduction. In contrast, the lower frequency of heat stress and drought allowed the winter wheat crop to attain increased yields with respect to the baseline period. It can be concluded that the impact of extreme events should be included in crop-modelling approaches, otherwise there is the risk of underestimating crop yield losses, which in turn would result in the application of incorrect policies for coping with climate change.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ainsworth EA, Long SP (2005) What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytol 165:351–372
Alcamo J, Moreno JM, Nováky B, Bindi M, Corobov R, Devoy RJN, Giannakopoulos C, Martin E, Olesen JE, Shvidenko A (2007) Europe. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 541–580
Bindi M, Fibbi L, Gozzini B, Orlandini S, Miglietta F (1996) Modeling the impact of future climate scenarios on yield and yield variability of grapevine. Clim Res 7:213–224
Bindi M, Sinclair TR, Harrison J (1999) Analysis of seed growth by linear increase in Harvest index. Crop Sci 39:486–493
Brassard JP, Singh P (2008) Impacts of climate change and CO2 increase on agricultural production and adaptation options for Southern Quebec, Canada. Mitig Adapt Strategies Glob Chang 13:241–265
Calvino PA, Sadras VO, Andrade FH (2003) Development, growth and yield of late-sown soybean in the southern Pampas. Eur J Agron 19:265–275
Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Slingo JM (2005) Simulation of the impact of high temperature stress on the yield of an annual crop. Agric For Meteorol 135:180–189
Chimenti CA, Hall AJ (2001) Grain number responses to temperature during floret differentiation in sunflower. Field Crops Res 72:177–184
CLC (2000) Copyright EEA, Copenhagen, 2007. http://www.eea.europa.eu/
Connor DJ, Hall AJ (1997) Sunflower physiology. In: Schneiter AA (ed) Sunflower technology and production, Monograph No. 35. ASA, CSSA, SSSA, Madison, pp 113–182
Diffenbaugh NS, Pal JS, Trapp RJ, Giorgi F (2005) Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change. PNAS 102:15774–15778
Easterling W, Apps M (2005) Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: a view from the IPCC. Clim Change 70:165–189
Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modelling, and impacts. Science 289:2068–2074
Ferris R, Ellis RH, Wheeler TR, Hadley P (1998) Effect of high temperature stress at anthesis on grain yield and biomass of field-grown crops of wheat. Ann Bot 82:631–639
Forster P, Ramaswamy V, Artaxo P, Berntsen T, Betts R, Fahey DW, Haywood J, Lean J, Lowe DC, Myhre G, Nganga J, Prinn R, Raga G, Schulz M, Van Dorland R (2007) Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Giannakopoulos C, Le Sager P, Bindi M, Moriondo M, Kostopoulou E, Goodess CM (2009) Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from global warming. Global Planet Change 68:209–224
Giorgi F, Whetton PH, Jones RG, Christensen JH, Mearns LO, Hewitson B, von Storch H, Fransico R, Jack C (2001) Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings. Geophys Res Lett 28:3317–3320
Goudriaan J, Zadoks JC (1995) global climate change: modelling the potential responses of agro-ecosystems with special reference to crop protection. Environ Pollut 87:215–224
Guereña A, Ruiz-Ramos M, Díaz-Ambrona CH, Conde J, Mínguez MI (2001) Assessment of climate change and agriculture in Spain using climate models. Agron J 93:237–249
Hansen JW, Indeje M (2004) Linking dynamic seasonal climate forecasts with crop simulation for maize yield prediction in semiarid Kenya. Agric For Meteorol 125:143–157
Hanson CE, Palutikof JP, Livermore MTJ, Barring L, Bindi M, Corte-Real J, Durao R, Giannakopoulos C, Good P, Holt T, Kundzewicz Z, Leckebusch G, Moriondo M, Radziejewski M, Santos J, Schlyter P, Schwarb M, Stjernquist I, Ulbrich U (2007) Modelling the impact of climate extremes: an overview of the MICE Project. Clim Change 81:163–177
Harrison PA, Butterfield RE (1996) Effect of climate change on Europe-wide winter wheat and sunflower productivity. Clim Res 7:225–241
IPCC (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Jamieson PD, Semenov MA, Brooking IR, Francis GS (1998) Sirius: a mechanistic model of wheat response to environmental variation. Eur J Agron 8:161–179
Jones RG, Noguer M, Hassell DC, Hudson D, Wilson SS, Jenkins GJ, Mitchell JFB (2004) Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS, 35 pp. Hadley Cent. Meteorol. Office, Exeter (Available at http://precis.metoffice.com/index.html)
Katz RW, Brown BG (1992) Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Clim Change 21:289–302
Mearns LO, Katz RW, Schneider H (1984) Extreme high temperature events: changes in their probabilities with changes in mean temperature. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23:1601–1613
Mearns LO, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R (1996) The effect of changes in daily and interannual climatic variability on CERES wheat: a sensitivity study. Clim Change 32:257–292
Moberg A, Jones PD (2004) Regional climate model simulations of daily maximum and minimum near-surface temperatures across Europe compared with observed station data 1961–1990. Clim Dyn 23:695–715
Moot DJ, Jamieson PD, Henderson AL, Ford MA, Porter JR (1996) Rate of change in harvest index during grain-filling of wheat. J Agric Sci 136:387–395
Moriondo M, Bindi M (2006) Comparison of temperatures simulated by GCMs, RCMs and statistical downscaling: potential application in studies of future crop development. Clim Res 30:149–160
Moriondo M, Bindi M, Sinclair TR (2005) Analysis of Solanaceae spp. harvest-organs growth by linear increase in harvest index and harvest-organ growth. J Am Soc Hort Sci 130:799–805
Moriondo M, Good P, Durao R, Bindi M, Giannakopoulos C, Corte-real J (2006) Potential impact of climate change on fire risk in the Mediterranean area. Clim Res 31:85–95
Morrison MJ, Stewart DW (2002) Heat stress during flowering in summer brassica. Crop Sci 42:797–803
Muchow RC (1988) Effect of nitrogen supply on the comparative productivity of maize and sorghum in a semi-arid tropical environment. III. Grain yield and nitrogen accumulation. Field Crop Res 18:31–43
Narciso G, Ragni P, Venturi A (1992) Agrometeorological aspects of crops in Italy, Spain and Greece. Joint Research Centre, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels, Luxembourg
Olesen JE, Bindi M (2002) Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy. Eur J Agron 16:239–262
Olesen JE, Bindi M (2004) Agricultural impacts and adaptations to climate change in Europe. Farm Policy J 1:36–46
Olesen JE, Jensen T, Petersen J (2000) Sensitivity of field-scale winter wheat production in Denmark to climate variability and climate change. Clim Res 15:221–238
Peiris DR, Crawford JW, Grashoff C, Jefferies RA, Porter JR, Marshall B (1996) A simulation study of crop growth and development under climate change. Agric For Meteorol 79:271–287
Porter JR, Gawith M (1999) Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. Eur J Agron 10:23–36
Porter JR, Semenov MA (2005) Crop responses to climatic variation. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 360:2021–2035
Poumadere M, Mays C, Le Mer S, Blong R (2005) The 2003 heat wave in France: dangerous climate change here and now. Risk Anal 25:1483–1494
Sadras VO, Connor DJ (1991) Physiological basis of the response of harvest index to the fraction of water transpired after anthesis. A simple model to estimate harvest index for determinate species. Field Crops Res 26:227–239
Sadras VO, Monzon JP (2006) Modelled wheat phenology captures rising temperature trends: Shortened time to flowering and maturity in Australia and Argentina. Field Crops Res 99:136–146
Schär C, Vidale PL, Lüthi D, Frei C, Häberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427:332–336
Schneider SH, Semenov S, Patwardhan A, Burton I, Magadza CHD, Oppenheimer M, Pittock AB, Rahman A, Smith JB, Suarez A, Yamin F (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 779–810
Semenov MA (2007) Development of high-resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK. Agric For Meteor 144:127–138
Semenov MA, Barrow EM (1997) Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Clim Change 35:397–414
Semenov MA, Porter JR (1994) The implications and importance of non-linear responses in modelling of growth and development of wheat. In: Grasman J, van Straten G (eds) Predictability and non-linear modelling in natural sciences and economics. Wageningen
Semenov MA, Porter JR (1995) Climatic variability and the modelling of crop yields. Agric For Meteor 73:265–283
Singh B, El Maayar M, André P, Bryant CR, Thouez JP (1998) Impacts of a GHG-induced climate change on crop yields: effects of acceleration in maturation, moisture stress and optimal temperature. Clim Change 38:51–86
Southworth J, Randolph JC, Habeck M, Doering OC, Pfeifer RA, Rao DG, Johnston JJ (2000) Consequences of future climate change and changing climate variability on maize yields in the Midwestern United States. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82:139–158
Spaeth SC, Sinclair TR (1985) Linear increase in soybean harvest index during seed-filling. Agron J 77:207–211
Stockle CO, Donatelli M, Nelson R (2003) CropSyst, a cropping systems simulation model. Eur J Agron 18:289–307
Tashiro T, Wardlaw IF (1990) The effect of high temperature at different stages of ripening on grain set, grain weight and grain dimensions in the semi-dwarf wheat ‘Banks’. Ann Bot 65:1–61
Thomson AM, Brown RA, Rosenberg NJ, Izaurralde RC, Benson V (2005) Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: an integrated assessment—part 3 dryland production of grain and forage crops. Clim Change 69:43–65
Tubiello FN, Donatelli M, Rosenzweig C, Stockle CO (2000) Effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on cropping systems: model predictions at two Italian locations. Eur J Agron 13:179–189
Tubiello FN, Amthor JS, Boote KJ, Donatelli M, Easterling W, Fischer G, Gifford RM, Howden M, Reilly J, Rosenzweig C (2007) Crop response to elevated CO2 and world food supply. A comment on ‘Food for Thought...’ by Long et al., Science 312: 1918–1921, 2006. Eur J Agron 26:215–233
Vara Prasad PV, Craufurd PQ, Summerfield RJ (1999) Sensitivity of peanut to timing of heat stress during reproductive development. Crop Sci 39:1352–1357
Villalobos FJ, Hall AJ, Ritchie JT, Orgaz F (1996) OILCROP-SUN: a development growth, and yield model of the sunflower crop. Agron J 88:403–415
Wardlaw IF, Dawson IA, Munibi P, Fewster R (1989) The tolerance of wheat to high temperatures during reproductive growth. I survey procedures and general response patterns. Aust J Agric Res 40:1–13
Wheeler TR, Batts GR, Ellis RH, Hadley P, Morison JIL (1996) Growth and yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) crops in response to CO2 and temperature. J Agric Sci Camb 127:37–48
Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ, Ellis RH, Porter JR, Vara Prasad PV (2000) Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops. Agric Eco Environ 82:159–167
Wollenweber B, Porter JR, Schellberg J (2003) Lack of interaction between extreme high-temperature events at vegetative and reproductive growth stages in wheat. J Agron Crop Sci 189:142–150
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Moriondo, M., Giannakopoulos, C. & Bindi, M. Climate change impact assessment: the role of climate extremes in crop yield simulation. Climatic Change 104, 679–701 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9871-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9871-0