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Analysis of climate change in Northern Ethiopia: implications for agricultural production

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Abstract

The impact of climatic change can be on specific locations. However, the broader the affected area coverage, in mind, the higher would be the chance in missing critical details. In this light, this paper attempts to assess the possible climatic changes and their corresponding implications on agricultural production in northern Ethiopia. The analysis is based on the future (2030 and 2050) temperature and rainfall data, downscaled as ensemble of four general circulation models (GCMs) using the A2 and B1 emission scenarios for ten meteorological stations located in different agroecological zones of the study region. The result indicates that, based on emission scenarios, the mean maximum and minimum temperature would increase by 2–2.3 and 0.8–0.9 °C in 2030 and by 2.2–2.7 and 1.4–1.7 °C in 2050, respectively. This will be accompanied by an increase in the frequency of hot days and nights and a decrease in cool days and nights. While annual rainfall totals will remain unchanged, main rainy season (kiremt) rainfall total would increase on average in 12.9 and 14.2 % under A2 and 9.5 and 11.2 % under B1 by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Owing to an increase in kiremt rainfall, the yield of maize and sorghum may increase at some sites under future climatic conditions, and the increase would be higher under CO2 fertilization. The results suggest the need for site-specific adaptation strategies to reduce the impact and/or exploit the opportunities of climate change.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are highly indebted to the Tigray Agricultural Research Institute (TARI) and the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) for their financial support through the Rural Capacity Building Project (RCBP) to carry out this project. We also express our sincere thanks to the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency for readily providing the daily rainfall and temperature data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Agriculture and Environmental Science, Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia

    Gebre Hadgu

  2. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Kindie Tesfaye

  3. Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Girma Mamo

  4. Melkassa Agricultural Research Center, Nazareth, Ethiopia

    Girma Mamo

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  1. Gebre Hadgu
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Correspondence to Gebre Hadgu.

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Hadgu, G., Tesfaye, K. & Mamo, G. Analysis of climate change in Northern Ethiopia: implications for agricultural production. Theor Appl Climatol 121, 733–747 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1261-5

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