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Regional climate model simulations of daily maximum and minimum near-surface temperatures across Europe compared with observed station data 1961–1990

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Abstract

Simulations of the present-day temperature climate in Europe obtained with the dynamic regional climate model HadRM3P from the Hadley Centre are evaluated. Observed daily temperature maxima (T x) and minima (Tn) for the 1961–1990 period at 185 stations are compared with their nearest corresponding HadRM3P grid-box data. The model generally performs well over the UK and elsewhere between latitudes 50 and 55°N, with biases mostly within ±0.5 K. In other areas coherent regions with seasonal biases up to more than ±5 K exist. In some areas, biases in climatological averages are associated with even larger errors (up to more than ±15 K) in the upper/lower extreme temperature range. Both areas with systematically overestimated and underestimated intra-seasonal daily temperature variances exist, but overestimation dominates. Too hot summer T x south of about 45°N are associated with drying soils in the model. This problem may occur further north in “future” integrations with a greenhouse-gas induced warming. Given the existence of errors in the simulations of the present-day climate, we recommend that results from future scenario integrations are treated with care.

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Acknowledgements

This study was funded by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy under Grant No. DE-FG02-98ER62601. HadRM3P data were provided by the Climate Impacts LINK project. Richard Jones assisted with the most recent information about the HadRM3P model. David Lister pre-processed ECA and BADC station data. Hans Alexandersson provided SMHI station data. Malcolm Haylock and Marie Ekström assisted with retrieving HadRM3P data. We thank Erland Källén for discussions about RCM evaluation. Two reviewers, the self-confessed Daniel Caya and an anonymous person, suggested significant improvements to the analysis. Ian Jolliffe was helpful concerning significance testing of variance ratios. Erik Kjellström suggested some clarifications to an early draft of the text.

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  1. Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

    Anders Moberg & Philip D. Jones

  2. Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 106 91, Stockholm, Sweden

    Anders Moberg & Anders Moberg

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  1. Anders Moberg
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Correspondence to Anders Moberg.

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Moberg, A., Jones, P.D. Regional climate model simulations of daily maximum and minimum near-surface temperatures across Europe compared with observed station data 1961–1990. Climate Dynamics 23, 695–715 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0464-3

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