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Trend analysis for integrated regional climate change impact assessments in the Lusatian river catchments (north-eastern Germany)

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Abstract

Trend analysis on observations and model-based climate change simulations are two commonly used methods for climate change detection and impact analysis. Here we propose an integrated assessment and interpretation of climate change impacts as a prerequisite for stakeholder outreach and planning of suitable climate change adaptation measures. The assessment includes (i) identifying trends in meteorological and hydrological observations and their nature, (ii) analysing the relation between the meteorological drivers and generated run-off as an integrated catchment response and (iii) analysing how hitherto changes agree with the simulations by regional climate models (RCMs). The Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster, characterised by high anthropogenic impact (e.g. mining activities) and low natural water yield, serve as study areas. The results of this study suggest that increases in observed temperature and potential evapotranspiration are robust while observed precipitation remained nearly unchanged (1963–2006). The RCMs agree on simulating a temperature increase but simulate opposing trends for precipitation for both past (1963–2006) and future (2018–2060) periods, the latter inducing differences in the hydrological response (actual evapotranspiration and run-off). For stakeholder outreach, we communicated a range of potential future climates and identified the statistical RCMs (STAR, WettReg) as warm and dry scenarios, and the dynamical RCMs (REMO, CCLM) as wet scenarios. Ultimately, the combined analysis of trends in observations and simulation models can be beneficial for stakeholder outreach and may increase their willingness to plan and implement suitable climate change adaptation strategies which are urgently needed within the Lusatian river catchments.

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Acknowledgements

The study was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Project INKA BB, FZK: 01LR0803A) and the Lausitzer und Mitteldeutsche Bergbau- Verwaltungsgesellschaft mbH. The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Ylva Hauf and Tobias Vetter), the Ministry of Environment, Health and Consumer Protection of the Federal State of Brandenburg (LUGV) and Saxon State Agency of Environment, Agriculture and Geology (LfULG) provided data for this study. We would especially like to thank the regional stakeholders for their valuable insights, their participation and feedback in workshops and interviews. The two anonymous reviewers and the editors helped through their comments and suggestions to improve the manuscript considerably.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Brandenburg University of Technology, Cottbus-Senftenberg, Siemens-Halske-Ring 10, 03046, Cottbus, Germany

    Anne Gädeke, Ina Pohle & Uwe Grünewald

  2. Water and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, PO Box 75 5860, Fairbanks, AK, 99775-5860, USA

    Anne Gädeke

  3. Research Domain Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473, Potsdam, Germany

    Hagen Koch

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  1. Anne Gädeke
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  2. Ina Pohle
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  4. Uwe Grünewald
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Correspondence to Anne Gädeke.

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Editor: James Pittock.

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Gädeke, A., Pohle, I., Koch, H. et al. Trend analysis for integrated regional climate change impact assessments in the Lusatian river catchments (north-eastern Germany). Reg Environ Change 17, 1751–1762 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1138-0

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