Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Back calculation and hazard prediction of a debris flow in Wenchuan meizoseismal area, China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

On August 20, 2019, many catastrophic debris flows broke out in meizoseismal area of Wenchuan M s 8.0 earthquake in China under the influence of continuous heavy rainfall. This paper takes the Chutou gully debris flow event occurred on August 20, 2019 as an example. The 3-D numerical simulation software, RAMMS, is used to back calculate the event and predict the future hazard. Coulomb and viscous turbulent friction, μ and ξ are calibrated in RAMMS. Numerical simulation reveals the movement process of Chutou gully from the aspects of flow depth, velocity, discharge, and run-out solid materials volume. The simulation results show that more than two-thirds of the solid materials are still deposited in the main channel, which could provide material basis for the re-occurrence of high hazard debris flow. In addition, based on the intensity and probability of debris flow, the hazard of debris flow is divided into high, middle, and low degrees. According to the simulation results and hazard assessment model, the hazard map of Chutou gully debris flow in various rainstorm return periods (20, 50, 100, and 200 years) is established, which can provide guidance for the future land-use planning and debris flow prevention works.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bartelt, P., Bieler C., Bühler Y., Christen M., Deubelbeiss Y., Graf C., ... & Schneider, M. 2017. RAMMS: debris flow user manual. 15-16.

  • Bartelt P, Salm B, Gruber U (1999) Calculating dense-snow avalanche runout using a Voellmy-fluid model with active/passive longitudinal straining. J Glaciol 45(150):242–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bertolo P, & Bottino G (2008) Debris-flow event in the Frangerello stream-Susa valley (Italy)—calibration of numerical models for the back analysis of the 16 October, 2000 rainstorm. landslides, 5(1), 19-30.

  • Chang FJ, Chiang YM, Lee WS (2009) Investigating the impact of the Chi-Chi earthquake on the occurrence of debris flows using artificial neural networks. Hydrol Process 23:2728–2736

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christen M, Kowalski J, Bartelt P (2010) RAMMS: numerical simulation of dense snow avalanches in three-dimensional terrain. Cold Reg Sci Technol 63(1-2):1–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang M, Tang C, Van Asch TW, Cai F (2017) Hazard assessment of debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area, South West China. Landslides 14(5):1783–1792

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen X, Cui P, You Y, Chen J, Li D (2014) Engineering measures for debris flow hazard mitigation in the Wenchuan earthquake area. Eng Geol 194:73–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crosta G (1998) Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation. Environ Geol 35(2-3):131–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan X, Scaringi G, Domènech G, Yang F, Guo X, Dai L et al (2019a) Two multi-temporal datasets that track the enhanced landsliding after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Earth Syst Sci Data 11:35–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fan X, Scaringi G, Korup O, West AJ, Van Westen CJ, Tanyas H et al (2019b) Earthquake-induced chains of geologic hazards: patterns, mechanisms, and impacts. Rev Geophys 57:421–503

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fiebiger G (1997) Hazard mapping in Austria. Journal of Torrent, Avalanche, Landslide and Rockfall Engineering 61(134):121–133

    Google Scholar 

  • Frank F, McArdell BW, Oggier N, Baer P, Christen M, Vieli A (2017) Debris-flow modeling at Meretschibach and Bondasca catchments, Switzerland: sensitivity testing of field-data-based entrainment model. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 17(5):801–815

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gan J, Zhang YS (2019) Numerical simulation of debris flow runout using Ramms: a case study of Luzhuang Gully in China. Comput Model Eng Sci:981–1009

  • Ge YG, Cui P, Zhang JQ, Zeng C, Su FH (2015) Catastrophic debris flows on July 10th 2013 along the Min River in areas seriously-hit by the Wenchuan earthquake. J Mt Sci 12:186–206

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo X, Cui P, Li Y, Fan J, Yan Y, Ge Y (2016) Temporal differentiation of rainfall thresholds for debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake-affected areas. Environ Earth Sci 75:109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • He K, Li Y, Ma G, Hu X, Liu B, Ma Z, Xu Z (2020) Failure mode analysis of post-seismic rockfall in shattered mountains exemplified by detailed investigation and numerical modelling. Landslides. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01532-1

  • He K, Ma G, Hu X, Liu B (2021) Failure mechanism and stability analysis of a reactivated landslide occurrence in Yanyuan City, China. Landslides. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01571-8

  • Horton AJ, Hales TC, Ouyang C, Fan X (2019) Identifying post-earthquake debris flow hazard using Massflow. Eng Geol 258:105134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huang RQ, Li WL (2009) Analysis on the number and density of landslides triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, China. Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation 20:1–7 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang X, Tang C, Zhou W (2014) Numerical simulation of occurrence frequency estimation model for debris flows. J Eng Geol 22(06):1271–1278 (In Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Hu W, Xu Q, Asch TV (2014) Experimental study on the initiation of debris flow. Research & Applications, Unsaturated Soils

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Li TT, Huang RQ, Pei XJ (2016) Variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow after Wenchuan earthquake in Gaochuan River watershed, Southwest China. Natural Hazards 82 (3):1967-1980

  • Lin CW, Shieh CL, Yuan BD, Shieh YC, Liu SH, Lee SY (2004) Impact of Chi-Chi earthquake on the occurrence of landslides and debris flows: example from the Chenyulan River watershed, Nantou, Taiwan. Eng Geol 71:49–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin JY, Yang MD, Lin BR, Lin PS (2011) Risk assessment of debris flows in Songhe Stream, Taiwan. Eng Geol 123(1-2):100–112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo G, Hu XW, Liang JX (2017) Stability evaluation and prediction of the Dongla reactivated ancient landslide as well as emergency mitigation for the Dongla Bridge. Landslides 14:1403–1418

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ma C, Wang Y, Hu K, Du C, Yang W (2017) Rainfall intensity–duration threshold and erosion competence of debris flows in four areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Geomorphology 282:85–95

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Medina V, Marcel H, Bateman A (2008) Application of FLAT-Model, a 2D finite volume code, to debris flows in the northeastern part of the Iberian Peninsula. landslides 5(1):127–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Minatti L, Pasculli A (2011) SPH numerical approach in modelling 2D muddy debris flow. In: International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment, Proceedings, pp 467–475

    Google Scholar 

  • Naef D, Rickenmann D, Rutschmann P, McArdell BW (2006) Comparison of flow resistance relations for debris flows using a one-dimensional finite element simulation model. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 6(1):155–165

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pastor M, Blanc T, Haddad B, Petrone S, Sanchez Morles M, Drempetic V et al (2014) Application of a SPH depth-integrated model to landslide run-out analysis. Landslides 11(5):793–812

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Penserini BD, Roering JJ, Streig A (2017) A morphologic proxy for debris flow erosion with application to the earthquake deformation cycle, Cascadia Subduction Zone, USA. Geomorphology 282:150–161

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prochaska AB, Santi PM, Higgins JD, Cannon SH (2008) A study of methods to estimate debris flow velocity. Landslides 5:431–444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pudasaini SP, & Hutter K (2007) Avalanche dynamics: dynamics of rapid flows of dense granular avalanches. Springer Science & Business Media.

  • Rickenmann D, Laigle D, Mcardell BW, Hübl J (2006) Comparison of 2D debris-flow simulation models with field events. Comput Geosci 10(2):241–264

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savage SB, Hutter K (1989) The motion of a finite mass of granular material down a rough incline. J Fluid Mech 199:177–215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen YM, Chen TL, Xiao GJ et al (1984) Flood calculation manual of small watershed in Sichuan province. China. 15-17 (In Chinese)

  • Stolz A, Huggel C (2008) Debris flows in the Swiss National Park: the influence of different flow models and varying DEM grid size on modeling results. Landslides 5(3):311–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tang C, Zhu J, Ding J et al (2011) Catastrophic debris flows triggered by a 14 August 2010 rainfall at the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake. Landslides 8 (4):485-497

  • Wang J, Yang S, Ou G, Gong Q, Yuan S (2018) Debris flow hazard assessment by combining numerical simulation and land utilization. Bull Eng Geol Environ 77(1):13–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu H, Jiang Y, Zhang X (2015) Flow models of fluidized granular masses with different basal resistance terms. Geomechanics & Engineering 8(6):811–828

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yan Y, Cui YF, Yin SY (2020) Landslide reconstruction using seismic signal characteristics and numerical simulations: case study of the 2017 “6.24” Xinmo landslide [J]. Eng Geol 270:105582

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang N, Takashi M, Ningbo P (2018) Numerical investigation of post-seismic debris flows in the epicentral area of the Wenchuan earthquake. Bull Eng Geol Environ 78:3253–3268

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Meanwhile, the authors would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, which significantly improved the manuscript.

Funding

The authors would like to acknowledge the National key research and development program (2018YFC1505401), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41731285, 41672283), Youth Fund Project of NSFC (41907225) and Open fund of State Key Laboratory of geological disaster prevention and geological environment protection (SKLGP2018K011) for their strong support for this topic.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Geosciences and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, 611756, China

    Bo Liu, Xiewen Hu, Guotao Ma, Kun He & Dingyi Liu

  2. School of Engineering, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK

    Guotao Ma

  3. School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, China

    Mingyan Wu

Authors
  1. Bo Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Xiewen Hu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Guotao Ma
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Kun He
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Mingyan Wu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Dingyi Liu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guotao Ma.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Liu, B., Hu, X., Ma, G. et al. Back calculation and hazard prediction of a debris flow in Wenchuan meizoseismal area, China. Bull Eng Geol Environ 80, 3457–3474 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02127-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02127-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation