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Temporal differentiation of rainfall thresholds for debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake-affected areas

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Abstract

The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake greatly altered the threshold for rainfall-triggered debris flows in the affected areas. It is of both scientific and practical significance to determine the rainfall thresholds. This study examines one of the regions most prone to debris flows to analyze the characteristics of rainfall that caused debris flows, and to explore local rainfall thresholds. We applied the relation between rainfall intensity and duration, peak intensity and event amount, and other single factor approaches. Comparison of effectiveness and accuracy indicates that the event rainfall is the most sensitive factor for forecasting. Analysis of the annual rainfall thresholds showed that the rainfall conditions required for debris flows have increased on the continent during the past 6 years. Besides the rainfall fluctuations over the past few years, material changes were the primary reason for threshold variability. Recovery of vegetation plays an important role in reducing potential loose material that supplies volume for debris flows. Natural solidification, decrease of the potential erosion depth, and surface coarsening make it more difficult to initiate a debris flow, and ultimately increased rainfall conditions required. The change in rainfall thresholds can be predicted and verified for the entire earthquake-affected region.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the Meteorological Bureau of Sichuan Province for providing their rainfall data. This study was supported from the Key Deployment Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZZD-EW-05-01) and the National Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 41301008), and National Key Technologies R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2012BAK10B04).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China

    Xiaojun Guo, Peng Cui, Yong Li, Yan Yan & Yonggang Ge

  2. Asian Network on Debris Flow, Chengdu, 610041, China

    Xiaojun Guo, Peng Cui, Yong Li & Yonggang Ge

  3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Xiaojun Guo & Yan Yan

  4. Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Peng Cui

  5. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu, 610072, China

    Jianglin Fan

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  1. Xiaojun Guo
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  2. Peng Cui
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  3. Yong Li
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Correspondence to Xiaojun Guo.

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Guo, X., Cui, P., Li, Y. et al. Temporal differentiation of rainfall thresholds for debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake-affected areas. Environ Earth Sci 75, 109 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-015-5031-1

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