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A new weather-routing system that accounts for ship stability based on a real-coded genetic algorithm

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Abstract

The operation schedule of an oceangoing vessel can be influenced by wave or wind disturbances, and is therefore weather routed. The weather-routing problem is considered to be a multimodal function problem. Therefore, in the present research, the real-coded genetic algorithm technique (an evolutionary calculation technique) is applied to globally search for the optimum route. Additionally, to avoid maritime accidents due to parametric rolling, this route optimization method takes into account the risk of parametric rolling as one of its objective functions. Numerical verification is carried out for three kinds of objective functions with different weight ratios between fuel efficiency and ship safety in parametric rolling. As a result, it is numerically confirmed that the relation between economics and ship safety is a trade-off, and the safer route is not necessarily the most economical. Considering its robustness, the proposed method appears to be a powerful practical tool by choosing the most appropriate weights for economics and ship safety.

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Acknowledgments

The short-term prediction of the added resistance and acceleration of the bow section was obtained by using the RIOS (Research Initiative on Oceangoing Ships) system developed at Osaka University. The authors are grateful to members of the RIOS for their support.

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Author notes

  1. Atsuo Maki

    Present address: Naval Systems Research Center, Technical Research & Development Institute, Ministry of Defense, 2-2-1 Nakameguro, Meguro, Tokyo, 153-8630, Japan

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Maritime Sciences, Kobe University, 5-1-1 Fukae-Minami, Higashinada, Kobe, 658-0022, Japan

    Atsuo Maki, Eiichi Kobayashi, Shigeaki Shiotani & Teruo Ohsawa

  2. Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 4259 Natatsuta, Midoriku, Yokohama, 226-8502, Japan

    Youhei Akimoto, Yuichi Nagata & Shigenobu Kobayashi

  3. Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka, 565-0971, Japan

    Naoya Umeda

Authors
  1. Atsuo Maki
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  2. Youhei Akimoto
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  3. Yuichi Nagata
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  4. Shigenobu Kobayashi
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  5. Eiichi Kobayashi
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  6. Shigeaki Shiotani
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  7. Teruo Ohsawa
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  8. Naoya Umeda
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Eiichi Kobayashi.

Appendix: The translation of allowable failure probability from its value per year to its value per second

Appendix: The translation of allowable failure probability from its value per year to its value per second

Let the occurrence probability per second of a random event be p second. Its probability per year p annual can be calculated using the relation for the complementary event:

$$ p_{\text{annual}} = 1 - \left( {1 - p_{\text{second}} } \right)^{3600 \cdot 24 \cdot 365}. $$
(A1)

If we expand the above equation using the binominal theorem and assume that p second is sufficiently small, then the following equation is obtained:

$$ p_{\text{annual}} \approx 3600 \cdot 24 \cdot 365 \cdot p_{\text{second}} . $$
(A2)

Here, substitution of the threshold value 10−6 into p annual yields the final result, as follows:

$$ p_{\text{second}} \approx 3.17 \times 10^{ - 14} . $$
(A3)

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Maki, A., Akimoto, Y., Nagata, Y. et al. A new weather-routing system that accounts for ship stability based on a real-coded genetic algorithm. J Mar Sci Technol 16, 311–322 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00773-011-0128-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00773-011-0128-z

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