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Testing for linear Granger causality from natural/anthropogenic forcings to global temperature anomalies

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Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the Granger causality from natural or anthropogenic forcings to global temperature anomalies. The lag-augmented Wald test is performed, and its robustness is also evaluated considering bootstrap method. The results show there is no-evidence of Granger causality from natural forcings to global temperature. On the contrary, a detectable Granger causality is found from anthropogenic forcings to global temperature confirming that greenhouse gases have an important role on recent global warming.

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Notes

  1. The results are available from the author upon request.

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Acknowledgements

I am grateful to anonymous referees for their valuable comments. I would like to thank Prof. U. Triacca and Dr. A. Pasini for the useful discussions and suggestions on a preliminary version of this paper, andM.E. Basilici for the advice on the language. All statistical computations were done using gret. Any remaining lack of clarity are my own responsibility.

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  1. Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Università di L’Aquila, via Vetoio 1, Coppito, 67010, L’Aquila, Italy

    Alessandro Attanasio

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  1. Alessandro Attanasio
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Correspondence to Alessandro Attanasio.

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Attanasio, A. Testing for linear Granger causality from natural/anthropogenic forcings to global temperature anomalies. Theor Appl Climatol 110, 281–289 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0634-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-012-0634-x

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