On the use of Granger causality to investigate the human influence on climate

Summary

A paper recently published in “Nature” finds that there is sufficient evidence to identify the effects of human activity on global temperature. The study is based on northern and southern hemispheres’ time series temperature from 1865 to 1994 and the econometric technique applied is Granger causality analysis. In this note, we make some critical remarks on the conclusions of this study which seem to be rather inconsistent from a methodological point of view. It is shown that a more accurate application of Granger causality analysis to this problem may not allow the same strong and unambiguous conclusions.