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Decadal change in relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency and the tropical Pacific SST

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Abstract

In this study, we examine the relationship between the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific and the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) during the main TC season (July–November) for the period of 1965–2006. Results show that there are periods when TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST are well correlated and periods when the relationship breaks down. Therefore, decadal variation is readily apparent in the relationship between the TC frequency and the SST variations in the tropical Pacific. We further examine the oceanic and atmospheric states in the two periods (i.e., 1979–1989 vs. 1990–2000) when the marked contrast in the correlation between the TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST is observed. Before 1990, the analysis indicates that oceanic conditions largely influenced anomalous TC frequency, whereas atmospheric conditions had little impact. After 1990, there the reverse appears to be the case, i.e., atmospheric conditions drive anomalous TC frequency and oceanic conditions are relatively unimportant. A role of atmosphere and ocean in relation to the TC development in the western North Pacific changes, which is consistent with the change of the correlations between the TC frequency and the tropical Pacific SST.

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Notes

  1. A simultaneous correlation coefficient between the NINO3 SST index and the local index is −0.26 and that with the NINO4 SST index is −0.11.

  2. A simultaneous correlation coefficient between the NINO3 SST index and the TNI is marginally significant at 90% confidence level by Student’s t test.

  3. A simultaneous correlation coefficient between the local SST index and the TNI is significant at 85% confidence level by Student’s t test.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to two anonymous reviewers who provided many suggestions that have greatly improved this manuscript. S.-W. Yeh, S.-K. Kang, C.-H. Kim and M.-H. Kwon is supported by KORDI (PE98512, PG47380, PE98511).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, ANSAN, P.O. Box 29, Seoul, 425-600, Korea

    Sang-Wook Yeh, Sok-Kuh Kang & Cheol-Ho Kim

  2. University of Miami, Miami, USA

    Ben P. Kirtman

  3. Met Officie Hadley Centre, Exter, UK

    Joo-Hong Kim

  4. IPRC, Hwaii, USA

    Min-Ho Kwon

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  1. Sang-Wook Yeh
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  2. Sok-Kuh Kang
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Correspondence to Sang-Wook Yeh.

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Yeh, SW., Kang, SK., Kirtman, B.P. et al. Decadal change in relationship between western North Pacific tropical cyclone frequency and the tropical Pacific SST. Meteorol Atmos Phys 106, 179–189 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-010-0057-0

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