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Impacts of climate variability and change on drought characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa

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Abstract

West Africa has been afflicted by droughts since the declining rains of the 1970s. Therefore, this study examines the characteristics of drought over the Niger River Basin (NRB), investigates the influence of the drought on the river flow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past (1986–2005) and future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) were analyzed. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the standardized runoff index (SRI) was used to quantify river flow. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA4 ensemble gives realistic simulations of the climatology of the Basin in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and frequency are projected over NRB. The coupling between SRI and drought indices was very strong (P < 0.05). The dominant peaks can be classified into three distinct drought cycles with periods 1–2, 2–4, 4–8 years. These cycles may be associated with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). River flow was highly sensitive to precipitation in the NRB and a 1–3 month lead time was found between drought indices and SRI. Under RCP4.5, changes in the SPEI drought frequency range from 1.8 (2046–2065) to 2.4 (2081–2100) month year−1 while under RCP8.5, the change ranges from 2.2 (2046–2065) to 3.0 month year−1 (2081–2100). Niger Middle sub-basin is likely to be mostly impacted in the future while the Upper Niger was projected to be least impacted. Results of this study may guide policymakers to evolve strategies to facilitate vulnerability assessment and adaptive capacity of the basin in order to minimize the negative impacts of climate change.

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Acknowledgements

The first author gratefully acknowledges the visiting fellowship support from Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany. All the positive comments from reviewers and editors which led to tremendous improvement of this manuscript are highly appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria

    Philip G. Oguntunde

  2. Institute of Landscape Hydrology, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany

    Philip G. Oguntunde & Gunnar Lischeid

  3. Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Babatunde J. Abiodun

  4. Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany

    Gunnar Lischeid

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  1. Philip G. Oguntunde
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Correspondence to Philip G. Oguntunde.

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Oguntunde, P.G., Lischeid, G. & Abiodun, B.J. Impacts of climate variability and change on drought characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 32, 1017–1034 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-017-1484-y

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