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Projection of droughts in Amu river basin for shared socioeconomic pathways CMIP6

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Abstract

Droughts significantly affect socioeconomic and the environment primarily by decreasing the water availability of a region. This study assessed the changes in drought characteristics in Central Asia’s transboundary Amu river basin for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The precipitation, maximum, and minimum temperature (Pr, Tmx, and Tmn) simulations of 19 global climate models (GCMs) of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to select the best models to prepare the multimodel ensemble (MME) mean. The standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to estimate droughts for multiple timescales from Pr and potential evapotranspiration (PET) derived from Tmx and Tmn. The changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of droughts for different severities and timescales were evaluated for the two future periods, 2020–2059 and 2060–2099, compared to the base period of 1975–2014. The study revealed four GCMs, AWI-CM-1–1-MR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM4-8, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, as the most suitable for projections of droughts in the study area. Results revealed a decrease in Pr by 3 to 12% in the near future and by 3 to 9% in the far future in most parts of the basin for different SSPs. However, there is almost no change in PET in the near future while increasing by 10 to 70% in the far future. The changes in Pr and PET would cause a noticeably decrease in drought occurrence in the near future, particularly for moderate droughts by − 50% for SSP5-8.5 and an increase in the far future up to 30% for SSP3-7.0. The increase in all severities of droughts was projected mostly in the center and northwest of the basin. Overall, the results showed a drought shift from the east to the northwest of the basin in the future.

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Data availability

All data used in the study are available in the public domain. Those are also available for sharing on request to the corresponding author.

Code availability

The codes used for the processing of data can be provided on request to the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) for providing CMIP6 climate simulation data through the web portal. The authors are also grateful to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for providing Climate Prediction Center (CPC) climate data through their website.

Funding

This study is financially supported by the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) through grant No Q.J130000.2451.09G07.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia

    Obaidullah Salehie, Tarmizi bin Ismail & Shamsuddin Shahid

  2. Faculty of Environment, Kabul University, Kabul, Afghanistan

    Obaidullah Salehie

  3. Construction and Building Engineering Department, College of Engineering and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport (AASTMT), B 2401 Smart Village, Giza, 12577, Egypt

    Mohammed Magdy Hamed

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  1. Obaidullah Salehie
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  4. Shamsuddin Shahid
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All the authors contributed to conceptualizing and designing the study. Data were gathered by Obaidullah Salehie. The modeling was done by Obaidullah Salehie and Mohammed Magdy Hamed. The results were prepared by Mohammed Magdy Hamed and Tarmizi bin Ismail. An initial draft of the paper was prepared by Obaidullah Salehie and Shamsuddin Shahid. The article was repeatedly revised to generate the final version by Tarmizi bin Ismail and Shamsuddin Shahid.

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Correspondence to Tarmizi bin Ismail.

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Salehie, O., Hamed, M.M., Ismail, T.b. et al. Projection of droughts in Amu river basin for shared socioeconomic pathways CMIP6. Theor Appl Climatol 149, 1009–1027 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04097-2

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