Abstract
The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced an accelerated wintertime warming in recent decades under global warming, but consensus on its causes has not yet been reached. This study quantifies the processes of the warming through analyzing surface temperature budget and surface energy balance. It is found that increased diabatic heating (73%) and warm advection (27%) by an anomalous anticyclone southeast of TP are two primary processes determining the surface air warming. The former is caused by a significant increase of the TP skin temperature which warms the near surface atmosphere through increasing upward surface sensible heat flux. The land surface warming is attributed to increased absorbed radiation fluxes in which three processes are identified to be major contributors. While outside forcing which is primarily due to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases contributes to the warming by 25% through increasing downward longwave radiation, two types of local positive feedbacks which are triggered by the land surface warming are found to contribute to most of the warming. One is the snow-albedo feedback which accounts for 47% of the surface warming by increasing surface absorption of incident solar radiation. The other is the moisture process feedback which accounts for 28% of the surface warming. The surface warming which works with increased soil water due to increased precipitation in the preceding seasons tends to promote surface evaporation and moisten the atmosphere aloft over the eastern TP, which, in turn, tends to increase downward longwave radiation and cause a further surface warming.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data Availability
The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) ground observation datasets and the CMA reanalysis project (CRA-40) are available at https://data.cma.cn. The fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-5) and the ECMWF interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) can be obtained from https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets. The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 (NCEP-2) are available at https://rda.ucar.edu. The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is available at https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/reanalysis/MERRA-2.
References
Bi M, Li Q, Yang S, Guo D, Shen X, Sun X (2022) Effects of Arctic sea ice in autumn on extreme cold events over the Tibetan Plateau in the following winter: possible mechanisms. Clim Dyn 58:2281–2292. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06007-0
Blackport R, Screen JA (2020) Insignificant effect of Arctic amplification on the amplitude of midlatitude atmospheric waves. Sci Adv 6:eaay2880. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay2880
Cai D, You Q, Fraedrich K, Guan Y (2017) Spatiotemporal temperature variability over the Tibetan Plateau: altitudinal dependence associated with the global warming hiatus. J Clim 30:969–984. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0343.1
Clark JP, Feldstein SB (2020) What drives the North Atlantic Oscillation’s temperature anomaly pattern? Part I: the growth and decay of the surface air temperature anomalies. J Atmos Sci 77:185–198. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-19-0027.1
Clark JP, Shenoy V, Feldstein SB, Lee S, Goss M (2021) The role of horizontal temperature advection in Arctic amplification. J Clim 34:2957–2976. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0937.1
Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
Duan A, Liu S, Zhao Y, Gao K, Hu W (2018) Atmospheric heat source/sink dataset over the Tibetan Plateau based on satellite and routine meteorological observations. Big Earth Data 2:179–189. https://doi.org/10.1080/20964471.2018.1514143
Duan A et al (2022) Sea ice loss of the Barents-Kara Sea enhances the winter warming over the Tibetan Plateau. npj Clim Atmospheric Sci 5:1–6. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00245-7
Duan A, Wu G (2006) Change of cloud amount and the climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027946
Duan A, Wu G, Zhang Q, Liu Y (2006) New proofs of the recent climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau as a result of the increasing greenhouse gases emissions. Chin Sci Bull 51:1396–1400. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-006-1396-6
Duan A, Xiao Z (2015) Does the climate warming hiatus exist over the tibetan. Plateau? Sci Rep 5:1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep13711
Ebita A et al (2011) The japanese 55-year reanalysis “JRA-55”: an interim report. Sola 7:149–152. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2011-038
Gao K, Duan A, Chen D, Wu G (2019) Surface energy budget diagnosis reveals possible mechanism for the different warming rate among Earth’s three poles in recent decades. Sci Bull 64:1140–1143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2019.06.023
Gao L, Bernhardt M, Schulz K, Chen X (2017) Elevation correction of ERA-Interim temperature data in the Tibetan Plateau. Int J Climatol 37:3540–3552. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4935
Gao Y, Li X, Leung LR, Chen D, Xu J (2015) Aridity changes in the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate. Environ Res Lett 10:034013. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034013
Ghatak D, Sinsky E, Miller J (2014) Role of snow-albedo feedback in higher elevation warming over the Himalayas, Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia. Environ Res Lett 9:114008. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114008
Hersbach H et al (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 146:1999–2049. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803
Jia X, Zhang C, Wu R, Qian Q (2021) Influence of tibetan Plateau autumn snow cover on interannual variations in spring precipitation over southern China. Clim Dyn 56:767–782. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05497-8
Jiang Y, Chen F, Gao Y, Barlage M, Li J (2019) Using multisource satellite data to assess recent snow-cover variability and uncertainty in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. J Hydrometeorol 20:1293–1306. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0220.1
Jiang Y, Chen F, Gao Y, He C, Barlage M, Huang W (2020) Assessment of uncertainty sources in snow cover simulation in the Tibetan Plateau. J Geophys Res: Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032674
Jin C, Wang B, Yang YM, Liu J (2020) Warm Arctic-cold Siberia” as an internal mode instigated by North Atlantic warming. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086248
Jolly E, D’andrea F, Rivière G, Fromang S (2021) Linking warm Arctic winters, Rossby waves, and cold spells: an idealized numerical study. J Atmos Sci 78:2783–2799. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0088.1
Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo J, Fiorino M, Potter G (2002) NCEP–DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1644. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-83-11-1631
Kang S et al (2019) Linking atmospheric pollution to cryospheric change in the third Pole region: current progress and future prospects. Natl Sci Rev 6:796–809. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwz031
Lei Y, Yao T, Bird BW, Yang K, Zhai J, Sheng Y (2013) Coherent lake growth on the central tibetan Plateau since the 1970s: characterization and attribution. J Hydrol 483:61–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.003
Li F, Wan X, Wang H, Orsolini YJ, Cong Z, Gao Y, Kang S (2020) Arctic sea-ice loss intensifies aerosol transport to the Tibetan Plateau. Nat Clim Change 10:1037–1044. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0881-2
Li Q, Zhao M, Yang S, Shen X, Dong L, Liu Z (2021) A zonally-oriented teleconnection pattern induced by heating of the western Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05841-6
Li Y, Su F, Tang Q, Gao H, Yan D, Peng H, Xiao S (2022) Contributions of moisture sources to precipitation in the major drainage basins in the Tibetan Plateau. Sci China Earth Sci 65:1088–1103. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-021-9890-6
Liu X, Chen B (2000) Climatic warming in the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades. Int J Climatology: J Royal Meteorological Soc 20:1729–1742
Liu Y, Lu M, Yang H, Duan A, He B, Yang S, Wu G (2020) Land–atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Tibetan Plateau and its climate impacts. Natl Sci Rev. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaa011
Liu Z et al (2017) CMA global reanalysis (CRA-40): status and plans. In: Proc. 5th International Conference on Reanalysis. Nat Meteor. Int Canter Rome, Italy, pp 13–17
Lu J, Cai M (2009) Seasonality of polar surface warming amplification in climate simulations. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040133
Lu M, Yang S, Wang J, Wu Y, Jia X (2021) Response of regional asian summer monsoons to the effect of reduced surface albedo in different tibetan Plateau domains in idealized model experiments. J Clim 34:7023–7036. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0500.1
Meng F, Su F, Li Y, Tong K (2019) Changes in terrestrial water storage during 2003–2014 and possible causes in Tibetan Plateau. J Geophys Res: Atmos 124:2909–2931. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029552
Niu T, Chen L, Zhou Z (2004) The characteristics of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau in the last 40 years and the detection of climatic jumps. Adv Atmos Sci 21:193–203. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02915705
Orsolini et al (2019) Evaluation of snow depth and snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau in global reanalyses using in situ and satellite remote sensing observations. Cryosphere 138:2221–2239. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-2221-2019
Palazzi E, Von Hardenberg J, Provenzale A (2013) Precipitation in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya: observations and future scenarios. J Geophys Res: Atmos 118(1):85–100. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018697
Pepin N et al (2015) Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nat Clim Change 5:424–430. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563
Pepin N, Deng H, Zhang H, Zhang F, Kang S, Yao T (2019) An examination of temperature trends at high elevations across the Tibetan Plateau: the use of MODIS LST to understand patterns of elevation-dependent warming. J Geophys Res: Atmos 124:5738–5756. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029798
Qu X, Huang G, Zhu L (2019) The CO2-induced sensible heat changes over the Tibetan Plateau from November to April. Clim Dyn 53:5623–5635. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04887-x
Qu X, Huang G, Zhu L (2020) CO2-induced heat source changes over the Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer-part I: the total effects of increased CO2. Clim Dyn 55:1793–1807. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05353-9
Rangwala I, Miller JR, Xu M (2009) Warming in the Tibetan Plateau: possible influences of the changes in surface water vapor. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037245
Rangwala I, Sinsky E, Miller JR (2013) Amplified warming projections for high altitude regions of the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes from CMIP5 models. Environ Res Lett 8:024040. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024040
Ruckstuhl C, Philipona R, Morland J, Ohmura A (2007) Observed relationship between surface specific humidity, integrated water vapor, and longwave downward radiation at different altitudes. J Geophys Res: Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007850
Sang X, Yang X-Q, Tao L, Fang J, Sun X (2022) Decadal changes of wintertime poleward heat and moisture transport associated with the amplified Arctic warming. Clim Dyn 58:137–159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05894-7
Shen Y, Xiong A, Hong Y, Yu J, Pan Y, Chen Z, Saharia M (2014) Uncertainty analysis of five satellite-based precipitation products and evaluation of three optimally merged multi-algorithm products over the Tibetan Plateau. Int J Remote Sens 35:6843–6858. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2014.960612
Simmons AJ et al (2004) Comparison of trends and low-frequency variability in CRU, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR analyses of surface air temperature. J Geophys Res Atmos 109:D24115. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005306
Smith DM et al (2022) Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss. Nat Commun 13:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y
Sun X et al (2022) Enhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection during boreal summer. Nat Commun 13:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28911-7
Wang M et al (2019) Recent recovery of the boreal spring sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau will continue in CMIP6 future projections. Environ Res Lett 14:124066. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab57a3
Wang T, Peng S, Lin X, Chang J (2013) Declining snow cover may affect spring phenological trend on the Tibetan Plateau. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110:2854–2855. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1306157110
Wang T, Yang X-Q, Fang J, Sun X, Ren X (2018) Role of air–sea interaction in the 30–60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the western North Pacific. J Clim 31:1653–1680. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0109.1
Wang X, Chen D, Pang G, Ou T, Yang M, Wang M (2020) A climatology of surface–air temperature difference over the Tibetan Plateau: results from multi-source reanalyses. Int J Climatol 40:6080–6094. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6568
Wang Z, Yang S, Luo H, Li J (2022) Drying tendency over the southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau in recent decades: role of a CGT-like atmospheric change. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06262-9
Wu G et al (2015) Tibetan Plateau climate dynamics: recent research progress and outlook. Natl Sci Rev 2:100–116. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwu045
Wu Q, Li Q, Ding Y, Shen X, Zhao M, Zhu Y (2022) Asian summer monsoon responses to the change of land–sea thermodynamic contrast in a warming climate: CMIP6 projections. Adv Clim Change Res 13:205–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2022.01.001
Wu Y, Yang S, Hu X, Wei W (2020) Process-based attribution of long‐term surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau. Int J Climatol 40:6410–6422. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6589
Wu Y, Zheng H, Zhang B, Chen D, Lei L (2014) Long-term changes of lake level and water budget in the Nam Co Lake Basin, central tibetan Plateau. J Hydrometeorol 15:1312–1322. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-093.1
Xie Y, Wu G, Liu Y, Huang J, Nie H (2022) A dynamic and thermodynamic coupling view of the linkages between eurasian cooling and Arctic warming. Clim Dyn 58:2725–2744. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06029-8
Xu W, Ma L, Ma M, Zhang H, Yuan W (2017) Spatial–temporal variability of snow cover and depth in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau. J Clim 30:1521–1533. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0732.1
Yan H, Huang J, He Y, Liu Y, Wang T, Li J (2020a) Atmospheric water vapor budget and its long-term trend over the Tibetan Plateau. J Geophys Research: Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033297. 125:e2020JD033297
Yan L, Liu Z, Chen G, Kutzbach J, Liu X (2016) Mechanisms of elevation-dependent warming over the tibetan plateau in quadrupled CO2 experiments. Clim Change 135:509–519. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1599-z
Yan Y, You Q, Wu F, Pepin N, Kang S (2020b) Surface mean temperature from the observational stations and multiple reanalyses over the Tibetan Plateau. Clim Dyn 55:2405–2419. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05386-0
Yang K, Ye B, Zhou D, Wu B, Foken T, Qin J, Zhou Z (2011) Response of hydrological cycle to recent climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau. Clim Change 109:517–534. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0099-4
Yao T et al (2012) Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings. Nat Clim change 2:663–667. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1580
Yao T et al (2015) Multispherical interactions and their effects on the tibetan Plateau’s earth system: a review of the recent researches. Natl Sci Rev 2:468–488. https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwv070
Yao T, Wu G, Xu B, Wang W, Gao J, An B (2019a) Asian water tower change and its impacts. Bull Chin Acad Sci (Chinese Version) 34:1203–1209. https://doi.org/10.16418/j.issn.1000-3045.2019.11.003
Yao T et al (2019b) Recent third pole’s rapid warming accompanies cryospheric melt and water cycle intensification and interactions between monsoon and environment: multidisciplinary approach with observations, modeling, and analysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 100:423–444. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0057.1
You Q et al (2021) Warming amplification over the arctic pole and third pole: trends, mechanisms and consequences. Earth Sci Rev 217:103625. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103625
You Q, Fraedrich K, Ren G, Pepin N, Kang S (2013) Variability of temperature in the Tibetan Plateau based on homogenized surface stations and reanalysis data. Int J Climatol 33:1337–1347. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3512
You Q, Jiang Z, Moore G, Bao Y, Kong L, Kang S (2017) Revisiting the relationship between observed warming and surface pressure in the Tibetan Plateau. J Clim 30:1721–1737. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0834.1
You Q, Kang S, Pepin N, Flügel W-A, Sanchez-Lorenzo A, Yan Y, Zhang Y (2010) Climate warming and associated changes in atmospheric circulation in the eastern and central tibetan Plateau from a homogenized dataset. Glob Planet Change 72:11–24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.04.003
You Q, Zhang Y, Xie X, Wu F (2019) Robust elevation dependency warming over the Tibetan Plateau under global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C. Clim Dyn 53:2047–2060. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04775-4
Yu W, Liu Y, Yang X, Wu G, He B, Li J, Bao Q (2021) Impact of North Atlantic SST and Tibetan Plateau forcing on seasonal transition of springtime south asian monsoon circulation. Clim Dyn 56:559–579. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05491-0
Zhang G et al (2020) Response of tibetan Plateau lakes to climate change: trends, patterns, and mechanisms. Earth Sci Rev 208:103269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103269
Zhang J, You Q, Wu F, Cai Z, Pepin N (2022) The warming of the Tibetan Plateau in response to transient and stabilized 2.0° C/1.5° C global warming targets. Adv Atmos Sci 39:1198–1206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1299-8
Zhang Y, Gao T, Kang S, Shangguan D, Luo X (2021) Albedo reduction as an important driver for glacier melting in Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas. Earth Sci Rev 220:103735. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103735
Zhang Y, Zou T, Xue Y (2019) An Arctic-Tibetan connection on subseasonal to seasonal time scale. Geophys Res Lett 46:2790–2799. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081476
Zhao B, Zhang B, Shi C, Liu J, Jiang L (2019) Comparison of the global energy cycle between chinese reanalysis interim and ECMWF reanalysis. J Meteorol Res 33:563–575. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-019-8129-7
Zhao Y, Zhou T (2020) Asian water tower evinced in total column water vapor: a comparison among multiple satellite and reanalysis data sets. Clim Dyn 54:231–245. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04999-4
Zhou C, Wang K (2017) Contrasting daytime and nighttime precipitation variability between observations and eight reanalysis products from 1979 to 2014 in China. J Clim 30:6443–6464. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0702.1
Zhou C, Wang K (2017) Contrasting daytime and nighttime precipitation variability between observations and eight reanalysis products from 1979 to 2014 in China. J Clim 30:6443–6464. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0702.1
Acknowledgements
This study is jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFE0106600) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41621005).
Funding
This study is jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFE0106600) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41621005).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
All authors contributed to the study conception and design. The main idea of the study was put forward by X-QY. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by MZ and X-QY. The manuscript was written by MZ and improved by X-QY. All authors reviewed and approved the final manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
Ethics approval and consent to participate
The authors follow the rules of good scientific practice.
Consent for publication
Written informed consent for publication was obtained from all participants.
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Zhao, M., Yang, XQ. & Tao, L. Quantifying the processes of accelerated wintertime Tibetan Plateau warming: outside forcing versus local feedbacks. Clim Dyn 61, 3289–3307 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06741-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06741-7