Abstract
As “the third pole”, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is sensitive to climate forcing and has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. This study analyzes annual and seasonal near-surface air temperature changes on the TP in response to transient and stabilized 2.0°C/1.5°C global warming targets based on simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) with faster warming at higher elevations is predicted. A surface energy budget analysis is adopted to uncover the mechanisms responsible for the temperature changes. Our results indicate a clear amplified warming on the TP with positive EDW in 2.0°C/1.5°C warmer futures, especially in the cold season. Mean TP warming relative to the reference period (1961–90) is dominated by an enhanced downward longwave radiation flux, while the variations in surface albedo shape the detailed pattern of EDW. For the same global warming level, the temperature changes under transient scenarios are ~0.2°C higher than those under stabilized scenarios, and the characteristics of EDW are broadly similar for both scenarios. These differences can be primarily attributed to the combined effects of differential downward longwave radiation, cloud radiative forcing, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These findings contribute to a more detailed understanding of regional climate on the TP in response to the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement and highlight the differences between transient and stabilized warming scenarios.
摘 要
青藏高原被誉为“世界屋脊”和“亚洲水塔”. 在全球变暖背景下, 青藏高原正经历显著升温且未来将持续增暖. 第21届联合国气候变化大会通过的≪巴黎协定≫提出了“将全球平均气温较前工业化时期上升幅度控制在2 °C以内, 并努力将温度上升幅度限制在1.5 °C以内”的长期目标. ≪巴黎协定≫目标暗指稳定的气候态, 尽管近年来越来越多的研究开始关注全球2.0 °C /1.5 °C温升目标下的区域气候预估问题, 但前人大部分工作还是基于全球耦合气候模式比较计划(CMIP)设定的典型浓度路径(RCP)情景下的预估试验, 这一试验并非针对全球2.0/1.5 °C温升情景而设计, 从中很难得出稳定2.0 °C /1.5 °C温升状态下区域气候变化的预估结果, 因而瞬变和稳定温升情景下区域气候状态的差异也尚未被揭示.
本研究基于CESM模式对于RCP8.5情景和全球2.0 °C /1.5 °C稳定温升情景的预估试验, 对青藏高原在瞬变和稳定2.0 °C /1.5 °C温升情景下的温度变化进行了预估, 并进一步利用地表能量平衡分析的方法揭示了温度变化的物理机制. 结果表明青藏高原在未来情景下快速增暖, 存在海拔依赖型增暖特征, 且在冬半年更为突出. 青藏高原的年平均气温在瞬变和稳定1.5 (2.0) °C温升情景下相对于基准时段(1961–90年)分别升高约1.8 (2.5) °C和1.6 (2.3) °C. 对于相同温升水平, 瞬变情景下的增暖幅度通常比稳定情景下的高约0.2 °C. 增暖幅度随着海拔升高而增大, 在海拔4000–5000 m的范围达到最大值. 青藏高原的平均增暖主要是增强的地表晴空向下长波辐射所贡献, 但增暖幅度海拔依赖型的分布特征是由地表反照率-辐射反馈所主导. 瞬变和稳定情景下青藏高原增暖幅度的差异可以归因于地表晴空向下长波辐射、 云-辐射反馈和地表感热/潜热通量差异的综合效应.
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Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41971072, 41771069). We are grateful to the reviewers for their constructive comments and thoughtful suggestions.
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Article Highlights
• Future TP warming relative to the present-day is strongly correlated with changes in downward clear-sky longwave radiation.
• Elevation-dependent warming with higher rates of warming at higher elevations results from uneven changes in surface albedo.
• TP warming is ~0.2°C higher under transient scenarios than for stabilized scenarios at the same global warming target.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Third Pole Atmospheric Physics, Chemistry, and Hydrology.
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Zhang, J., You, Q., Wu, F. et al. The Warming of the Tibetan Plateau in Response to Transient and Stabilized 2.0°C/1.5°C Global Warming Targets. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 1198–1206 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1299-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1299-8
Key words
- elevation-dependent warming (EDW)
- Paris Agreement
- Tibetan Plateau
- transient and stabilized warming
- temperature