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Changes in ENSO-monsoon relations from early to recent decades during onset, peak and withdrawal phases of Indian summer monsoon

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Abstract

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomenon in the tropical Pacific and an important modulator of the spatio-temporal variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Here, we explore the impact of ENSO during onset (June), peak (July–August) and withdrawal (September) phases of ISMR for the period 1951–2015, by studying the changes in the ENSO-monsoon relationship from early decades (1951–1980) to recent decades (1986–2015). We observe noticeable changes in the ENSO-monsoon relationship from the early to recent decades during all the three phases. During El Niño events, rainfall over most of the Indian regions is significantly increased in recent decades during onset phase, but a significant decrease in rainfall is observed during peak and withdrawal phases. On the other hand, the rainfall during La Niña events is significantly decreased over the monsoon core zone of India during all the three phases. A significant increase (decrease) in sea surface temperature (SST) is observed over the central equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean during El Niño (La Niña) events in recent decades. These changes differ from one phase to another and related to the observed rainfall patterns over the Indian region. Apart from these, the changes in the anomalies of low level circulation and Walker circulation over the Indo-Pacific domain are also linked to the changes in rainfall during the ENSO events, with most significant relationship during the onset phase.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the Director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for providing the necessary facilities and to the Executive Director, Centre for Climate Change Research, IITM for encouragement. The first and third authors are grateful to Sree Krishna College, Guruvayoor for providing facility. The authors also acknowledge the CRU data for the rainfall analysis. We also thank NCEP-NCAR, HadISST data products. The JK is funded by the Department of Science Technology, Climate Change Programme (SPLICE). The CCCR, IITM is fully funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Govt. of India.

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  1. Department of Physics, Sree Krishna College, Affiliated to University of Calicut, Guruvayoor, Kerala, India

    P. H. Hrudya & R. Vishnu

  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, 411008, India

    Hamza Varikoden

  3. CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, India

    J. Kuttippurath

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  1. P. H. Hrudya
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Correspondence to Hamza Varikoden.

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Hrudya, P.H., Varikoden, H., Vishnu, R. et al. Changes in ENSO-monsoon relations from early to recent decades during onset, peak and withdrawal phases of Indian summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 55, 1457–1471 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05335-x

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