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An unusual 2019 Indian summer monsoon. A glimpse of climate change?

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Abstract

In this study, we examined the possible causes behind the unusual behaviour of 2019 Summer Monsoon (SM) and also investigated whether 2019 SM is as a clear glimpse of emerging climate change, using high resolution datasets of Indian Meteorological Department(rainfall) and ERA 5 reanalysis (0.25o X 0.25o). In our analysis, we found that, 2019 SM season is the end result of ongoing climatic changes in the recent period (2006–2021) and their association with prevailing positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) and El Nino conditions. Our study found climate change signals like significant warming of Western Indian Ocean (WIO) (altered the North – South (meridional) Tropospheric Temperature gradient (TTg)), rainfall increment over Northwestern India (due to variation in the strength of southwesterlies), changes in timings of onset and withdrawal, shift in monsoon propagation and frequent incidence of El Nino as well as intense pIOD conditions during the SM season, in the recent 16 year period (2006–2021). We found a significant weakening/strengthening in monsoon circulation in June/September. We noticed that among these 16 years, 2019 stood as a perfect example of a monsoon in warming scenario with severe heat waves, extreme pIOD conditions and erratic monsoon features. Though 2019 monsoon rainfall (like 1994) is about 110% of Long Period Average and experienced El Nino alongside pIOD conditions like 1994 and 1997, we found drastic variability in monsoon features of 2019. The post onset conditions and rainfall variability in 2019 are mainly influenced by TTg fluctuations due to warmer WIO (specifically Arabian Sea), weakening/strengthening of circulation in June/September and extreme rainfall reception in short period. As decadal frame is the time scale on which anthropogenic climate change emerges, the vagaries we noticed in the 16 year period (especially 2019) should not be neglected.

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Data availability

IMD Precipitation could be obtained from. https://www.imdpune.gov.in/Clim_Pred_LRF_New/Grided_Data_Download.html. Era 5 datasets can be obtained from this below link. https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/#!/home. IOD indices and Nino 3.4 indices provided by NOAA can be obtained through (https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data; https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Time-series/Nino34/). Rainfall statistics of summer monsoon season provided by IMD Pune climate data service portal can be obtained through (https://dsp.imdpune.gov.in/).

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Acknowledgements

We thank the DST, Government of India for providing research fellowship (DST/INSPIRE Fellowship/IF190293) to the author V.S.L Bhargavi. We acknowledge the support of DST, Government of India for providing the computer facility under FIST programme to our department. We are thankful to the IMD, Government of India, ERA 5 Reanalysis team of ECMWF for providing the data and GrADS, NCL teams for developing plotting software. This work is a part of the Ph.D. research work of V.S.L. Bhargavi.

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  1. Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, College of Science and Technology, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, 530 003, India

    V. S. Lakshmi Bhargavi, V. Brahmananda Rao & C. V Naidu

  2. National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, Brazil

    V. Brahmananda Rao

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  1. V. S. Lakshmi Bhargavi
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  3. C. V Naidu
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V.S.L Bhargavi and Dr. V. Brahmananda Rao performed data collection, analysis and wrote the manuscript. Dr. CV. Naidu reviewed and helped in preparing the final manuscript draft. All authors reviewed and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to V. S. Lakshmi Bhargavi.

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Bhargavi, V.S.L., Rao, V.B. & Naidu, C.V. An unusual 2019 Indian summer monsoon. A glimpse of climate change?. Theor Appl Climatol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04928-4

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