Abstract
Defining the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) with a simple index has been a difficult task. This paper elaborates on the meanings of 18 existing EAWM strength indices and classifies them into four categories: low level wind indices, upper zonal wind shear indices, east-west pressure contrast indices, and East Asian trough indices. The temporal/spatial performance and prediction potential of these indices are then analyzed for the 1957–2001 period. It reveals that on the decadal timescale, most indices except the east-west pressure contrast indices can well capture the continuous weakening of the EAWM around 1986. On the interannual timescale, the low level wind indices and East Asian trough indices have the best predictability based on knowledge of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, respectively. All the 18 existing indices can well describe the EAWM-related circulation, precipitation, and lower tropospheric air temperature anomalies. However, the variations of surface air temperature over large areas of central China cannot be well captured by most indices, which is possibly related to topographic effects. The results of this study may provide a possible reference for future studies of the EAWM.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Boyle, J. S., and T. J. Chen, 1987: Synoptic aspects of the wintertime East Asian monsoon. Monsoon Meteorology, C. P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti, Eds., Oxford University Press, 125–160.
Chan, J. C. L., and C. Y. Li, 2004: The East Asia winter monsoon. East Asian Monsoon, C. P. Chang, Ed., World Scientific Publishing Co. Pet. Ltd., 54–106.
Chang, C.-P., and K. M. Lau, 1980: Northeasterly cold surges and near-equatorial disturbances over the winter MONEX area during December 1974. II: Planetary-scale aspects. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 298–312.
Chang, C.-P., and K. M. Lau, 1982: Short-term planetary-scale interactions over the tropics and midlatitudes during northern winter. I: Contrasts between active and inactive periods. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 933–946.
Chang, C.-P., P. Harr, and H. J. Chen, 2005: Synoptic disturbances over the equatorial South China Sea and western maritime continent during boreal winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 489–503.
Chang, C.-P., Z. Wang, and H. Hendon, 2006: The Asian winter monsoon. The Asian Monsoon, B. Wang, Ed., Praxis, Berlin, 89–127.
Cheang, B.-K., 1987: Short- and long-range monsoon prediction in Southeast Asia. Monsoons, J. S. Fein and P. L. Stephens, Eds., John Wiley & Sons, 579–606.
Chen, J., and S. Q. Sun, 1999: East Asian winter monsoon anomaly and variation of global circulation. Part I: A comparison study on strong and weak winter monsoon. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 101–111. (in Chinese)
Chen, L. X., Q. G. Zhu, and H. B. Luo, 1991: East Asian Monsoon. China Meteorological Press, 362pp. (in Chinese)
Chen, M., P. Xie, J. E. Janowiak, and P. A. Arkin, 2002: Global land precipitation: A 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J. Hydrometeor., 3, 249–266.
Chen, W., H. F. Graf, and R. H. Huang, 2000: The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 17, 46–60.
Chen, W., S. Yang, and R. H. Huang, 2005: Relationship between stationary planetary wave activity and the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D14110, doi: 10.1029/2004JD005669.
Chen, W., L. Wang, Y. K. Xue, and S. F. Sun, 2009: Variabilities of the spring river runoff system in East China and their relations to precipitation and sea surface temperature. Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1381–1394, doi: 10.1002/joc.1785.
Compo, G. P., G. N. Kiladis, and P. J. Webster, 1999: The horizontal and vertical structure of east Asian winter monsoon pressure surges. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 125, 29–54.
Cui, X. P., and Z. B. Sun, 1999: East Asian winter monsoon index and its varation analysis. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 22, 321–325. (in Chinese)
Ding, Y. H., 1994: Monsoon over China. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 420pp.
Gong, D. Y., S. W. Wang, and J. H. Zhu, 2001: East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2073–2076.
Gu, W., C. Li, W. Li, W. Zhou, and J. C. L. Chan, 2009: Interdecadal unstationary relationship between NAO and east China’s summer precipitation patterns, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L13702, doi:10.1029/2009GL038843.
Guo, Q. Y., 1994: Relationship between the variations of East Asian winter monsoon and temperature anomalies in China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 5, 218–225. (in Chinese)
Harrold, T. W., 1973: Mechanism influencing the distribution of precipitation within baroclinic disturbances. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 99, 232–251.
Hu, Z. Z., L. Bengtsson, and K. Arpe, 2000: Impact of global warming on the Asian winter monsoon in a coupled GCM. J. Geophys. Res., 105, 4607–4624.
Huang, R. H., L. T. Zhou, and W. Chen, 2003: The progresses of recent studies on the variabilities of the East Asian monsoon and their causes. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20, 55–69.
Huang, R. H., J. L. Chen, and G. Huang, 2007: Characteristics and variations of the East Asian monsoon system and its impacts on climate disasters in China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 24, 993–1023, doi: 10.1007/s00376-007-0993-x.
Jhun, J. G., and E. J. Lee, 2004: A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. J. Climate, 17, 711–726.
Ji, L. R., S. Q. Sun, K. Arpe, and L. Bengtsson, 1997: Model study on the interannual variability of Asian winter monsoon and its influence. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 14, 1–22.
Kang, L. H., W. Chen, and K. Wei, 2006: The interdecadal variation of winter temperature in China and its relation to anomalies in atmospheric general circulation. Climatic and Environmental Research, 11, 330–339. (in Chinese)
Lau, K. M., and M. T. Li, 1984: The monsoon of East Asia and its global associations—A survey. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 65, 114–125.
Lau, K. M., and C. P. Chang, 1987: Planetary scale aspects of the winter monsoon and atmospheric teleconnections. Monsoon Meteorology, C. P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti, Eds., Oxford University Press, 161–202.
Lu, E., and J. C. L. Chan, 1999: A unified monsoon index for South China. J. Climate, 12, 2375–2385.
Power, S., T. Casey, C. Folland, A. Colman, and V. Mehta, 1999: Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia, Climate Dyn., 15, 319–324.
Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670.
Shi, N., 1996: Features of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity on multiple time scale in recent 40 years and their relation to climate. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 7, 175–182. (in Chinese)
Sun, B. M., and C. Y. Li, 1997: Relationship between the disturbances of East Asian trough and tropical convective activities in boreal winter. Chinese Science Bulletin, 42, 500–504. (in Chinese)
Torrence, C., and G. P. Compo, 1998: A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 61–78.
Uppala, S. M., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 131, 2961–3012.
Wang, B., R. Wu, and X. Fu, 2000: Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J. Climate, 13, 1517–1536.
Wang, H. J., and D. B. Jiang, 2004: A new East Asian winter monsoon intensity index and atmospheric circulation comparison between strong and weak composite. Quaternary Sciences, 24, 19–27. (in Chinese)
Wang, L., W. Chen, and R. H. Huang, 2007: Changes in the variability of North Pacific Oscillation around 1975/76 and its relationship with East Asian winter climate. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D11110, doi: 10.1029/2006JD008054.
Wang, L., W. Chen, and R. H. Huang, 2008: Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20702, doi: 10.1029/2008GL035287.
Wang, L., W. Chen, W. Zhou, and R. H. Huang, 2009a: Interannual variations of 500hPa East Asian trough axis and its influence on the pathway of the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Climate, 22, 600–614.
Wang, L., R. H. Huang, L. Gu, W. Chen, and L. H. Kang, 2009b: Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and their association with quasistationary planetary wave activity. J. Climate, 22, 4860–4872.
Wang, L., W. Chen, W. Zhou, J.C.L. Chan, D. Barriopedro, and R.H. Huang, 2010: Effect of the climate shift around mid 1970s on the relationship between wintertime Ural blocking circulation and East Asian climate. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 153–158, doi: 10.1002/joc.1876.
Wang, S. W., and D. Z. Ye, 1993: An analysis of global warming during the last one hundred years. Climate Variability—Proceedings of International Workshop on Climate Variabilities (IWCV), Ye et al., Eds., China Meteorological Press, 23–32.
Wu, B. Y., and R. H. Huang, 1999: Effects of the extremes in the North Atlantic Oscillation on East Asia winter monsoon. Chinese J. Atmos. Sci., 23, 641–651. (in Chinese)
Wu, B. Y., and J. Wang, 2002a: Winter Arctic Oscillation, Siberian High and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, doi: 10.1029/2002GL015373.
Wu, R., and B. Wang, 2002b: A contrast of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relationship between 1962–77 and 1978–93. J. Climate, 15, 3266–3279.
Xu, S. Y., and J. J. Ji, 1965: The climate and weather features during the outbreak period of China’s winter monsoon. Geographical Symposium, 9, 85–101. (in Chinese)
Yang, S., K. M. Lau, and K. M. Kim, 2002: Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies. J. Climate, 15, 306–325.
Zhang, R., A. Sumi, and M. Kimoto, 1996: Impact of El Niño on the East Asian monsoon: A diagnostic study of the 86/87 and 91/92 events. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 74, 49–62.
Zhou, L. T., 2010: Impact of East Asian winter monsoon on rainfall over southeastern China and its dynamical process. Int. J. Climatol., doi: 10.1002/joc.2101.
Zhou, L. T., C. Y. Tam, W. Zhou, and J. C. L. Chan, 2010: Influence of South China Sea SST and ENSO on winter Rainfall over South China. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 27(4), doi: 10.1007/s00376-009-9102-7.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wang, L., Chen, W. How well do existing indices measure the strength of the East Asian winter monsoon?. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 27, 855–870 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-9094-3
Received:
Revised:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-9094-3