Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Interdecadal modulation on the relationship between ENSO and typhoon activity during the late season in the western North Pacific

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The present study identifies an interdecadal modulation of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the relationship between El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and typhoon activity during the late season (October–December) in the western North Pacific. The PDO is uncorrelated with ENSO during the warm phase of 1979–1997, while the PDO is positively correlated with ENSO during the cold phase of 1998–2012. Further analyses show that the warm phase is associated with the reduced ENSO–typhoon activity relationship and more typhoons, whereas the cold phase is corresponded to the enhanced ENSO–typhoon activity relationship and fewer typhoons. These variations are mainly manifested by a significant difference of typhoon activity in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific. Moreover, the change of ENSO–typhoon relationship is largely due to changes in large-scale environmental conditions especially from low-level vorticity and vertical wind shear between the two phases, which are related to the changes in tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature. The study implies that the phase of the PDO should be taken into account when ENSO is used as a predictor for predicting typhoon activity in the western North Pacific.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Burgman RJ, Schopf PS, Kirtman BP (2008) Decadal modulation of ENSO in a hybrid coupled model. J Clim 21:5482–5500

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camargo SJ, Sobel AH (2005) Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J Clim 18:2996–3006

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Camargo SJ, Emanuel KA, Sobel AH (2007) Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J Clim 20:4819–4834

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan JCL (2000) Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J Clim 13:2960–2972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan JCL (2005) Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:143–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan JCL (2006) Comments on “Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment”. Science 311:1713

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chan JCL (2008) Decadal variations of intense typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific. Proc R Soc Lond 464A:249–272

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen T-C, Weng S-P, Yamazaki N, Kiehne S (1998) Interannual variation in the tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Mon Weather Rev 126:1080–1090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen GT, Wang C-C, Lin L-F (2006) A diagnostic study of a retreating Mei-Yu front and the accompanying low-level jet formation and intensification. Mon Weather Rev 134:874–896

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chia H-H, Ropelewski C-F (2002) The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific. J Clim 15:2934–2944

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chikamoto Y et al (2012) Predictability of a stepwise shift in Pacific climate during the late 1990s in hindcast experiments using MIROC. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 90A:1–21. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2012-A01

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chowdary JS, Xie SP, Tokinaga H, Okumura YM, Kubota H, Johnson N, Zheng XT (2012) Interdecadal variations in ENSO teleconnection to the Indo-Western Pacific for 1870–2007. J Clim 25:1722–1744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chu PS (2002) Large-scale circulation features associated with decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J Clim 15:2678–2689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chu PS, Chen H (2005) Interannual and interdecadal rainfall variations in the Hawaiian Islands. J Clim 18:4796–4813

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chu PS, Zhao X (2004) Bayesian change-point analysis of tropical cyclone activity: the Central North Pacific case. J Clim 17:4893–4901

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DeMaria M (1996) The effect of vertical wind shear on tropical cyclone intensification change. J Atmos Sci 53:2076–2088

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:686–688

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel KA, Ravela S, Vivant E, Risi C (2006) A statistical-deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:299–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Emanuel K, Sundararajan R, Williams J (2008) Hurricanes and global warming: results from downscaling IPCC AR4 simulations. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89:347–367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gershunov A, Barnett TP (1998) Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:2715–2725

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Girishkumar MS, Prakash VT, Ravichandran M (2014) Influence of Pacific decadal oscillation on the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal during October–December. Clim Dyn 44(11–12):3469–3479

    Google Scholar 

  • Goodrich GB (2007) Influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation on winter precipitation and drought during years of neutral ENSO in the western United States. Weather Forecast 22:116–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ham YG, Kug JS, Park JY, Jin FF (2013) Sea surface temperature in the north tropical Atlantic as a trigger for El Niño/Souther Oscillation events. Nat Geosci 6:112–116

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ho CH, Baik JJ, Kim JH, Gong DY, Sui CH (2004) Interdecadal changes in summertime typhoon tracks. J Clim 17(9):1767–1776

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hong C-C, Li T, Wu Y-K, Chang C-C (2014) The climate regime shift over the Pacific during 1996/1997. Clim Dyn 43(1–2):435–446

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsu PC, Chu PS, Murakami H, Zhao X (2014) An abrupt decrease in the late-season typhoon activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim 27:4296–4312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kamahori HN, Yamazaki N, Mannoji N, Takahashi K (2006) Variability in intense tropical cyclone days in the western North Pacific. SOLA 2:104–107. doi:10.2151/sola.2006-027

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woolen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaplan JM, DeMaria J, Knaff A (2010) A revised tropical cyclone rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Basins. Weather Forecast 25:220–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, 202 pp

  • Kim J-W, Yeh S-W, Chang E-C (2013) Combined effect of El Niño-Southern oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on the East Asian winter monsoon. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1730-z

    Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy L, Krishnamurthy V (2013) Influence of PDO on South Asian summer monsoon and monsoon–ENSO relation. Clim Dyn 42:2397–2410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Sugi M (2003) Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 21:233–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lander MA (1994) An exploratory analysis of the relationship between tropical storm formation in the western North Pacific and ENSO. Mon Weather Rev 122:636–651

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee HS, Yamashita T, Mishima T (2012) Multi-decadal variations of ENSO, the Pacific decadal oscillation and tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. Prog Oceanogr 105:67–80

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Z, Yu W, Li T, Murty VSN, Tangang F (2013) Bimodal character of cyclone climatology in the Bay of Bengal modulated by monsoon seasonal cycle. J Clim 26:1033–1046

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu KS, Chan JCL (2008) Interdecadal variability of western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks. J Clim 21:4464–4476

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu KS, Chan JCL (2013) Inactive period of western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 1998–2011. J Clim 26:2614–2630

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lupo AR, Johnston GJ (2000) The variability in Atlantic Ocean Basin hurricane occurrence and intensity as related to ENSO and the North Pacific Oscillation. Nat Wea Dig 24(1–2):3–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Lupo AR, Latham TK, Magill TH (2008) The interannual variability of hurricane activity in the Atlantic and East Pacific regions. Natl Weather Dig 32:11–33

    Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric test against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259. doi:10.2307/1907187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB, Whitney DR (1947) On a test of whether one of two random variables is stochastically larger than the other. Ann Math Stat 18:50–60. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177730491

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mantuna NJ, Hare SR (2002) The Pacific decadal oscillation. J Oceanogr 58:35–44

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matsuura T, Yumoto M, Iizuka S (2003) A mechanism of interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 21:105–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maue RN (2011) Recent historically low global tropical cyclone activity. Geophys Res Lett 38:L14803. doi:10.1029/2011GL047711

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McPhaden MJ (2002) El Niño and La Niña: causes and global consequences. In: Munn T (ed) Encyclopedia of global environmental change. Wiley, Chichester, pp 353–370

    Google Scholar 

  • Power SB, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V (1999) Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim Dyn 15:319–324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ren F, Liang J, Wu G, Dong W, Yang X (2011) Reliability analysis of climate change of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim 24:5887–5898

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen CW, Wang W-C, Gong W, Hao Z (2006) A Pacific decadal oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China. Geophys Res Lett 33:L03702. doi:10.1029/2005GL024804

    Google Scholar 

  • Simiu E, Scanlon RH (1978) Wind effects on structures. Wiley Interscience, London, p 458

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith T, Reynolds R, Peterson T, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song J-J, Wang Y, Wu L (2010) Trend discrepancies among three best track data sets of western North Pacific tropical cyclones. J Geophys Res 115:D12128. doi:10.1029/2009JD013058

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tao L, Wu L, Wang Y, Yang L (2012) Influence of tropical Indian Ocean warming and ENSO on tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 90:127–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tu JY, Chou C, Chu PS (2009) The abrupt shift of typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and its association with western North Pacific-East Asian climate change. J Clim 22(13):3617–3628

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Chan JCL (2002) How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J Clim 13:1517–1536

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Picaut J (2004) Understanding ENSO physics—a review. In: Wang C, Xie S-P, Carton JA (eds) Earth’s climate: the ocean–atmosphere interaction. Geophysical Monograph Series, vol 147. AGU, Washington, DC, pp 21–48

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Zhou X (2008) Climate variability and predictability of rapid intensification in tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. Meteorol Atmos Phys. doi:10.1007/s00703-006-0238-z

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Weisberg RH, Virmani J (1999) Western Pacific interannual variability associated with the El Niño-Southern oscillation. J Geophys Res 104:5131–5149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang L, Chen W, Huang R (2008) Interdecadal modulation of PDO on the impact of ENSO on the east Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 35:L20702. doi:10.1029/2008GL035287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang X, Wang DX, Zhou W (2009a) Decadal variability of twentieth-century El Niño and La Nia occurrence from observations and IPCC AR4 coupled models. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1019/200GL3929

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang Y, Li S, Luo D (2009b) Seasonal response of Asian monsoonal climate to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. J Geophys Res 114:D02112. doi:10.1029/2008JD010929

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Yang Y, Ding Q, Murakami H, Huang F (2010) Climate control of the global tropical storm days (1965–2008). Geophys Res Lett 37:L07704. doi:10.1029/2010GL042487

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang C, Li C, Mu M, Duan W (2013) Seasonal modulations of different impacts of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 40:2887–2902

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang XD, Wang C, Zhang L, Wang X (2015) Multidecadal variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensificatin in the western North Pacific. J Clim 28:3806–3820

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weisberg RH, Wang C (1997) A western Pacific oscillator paradigm for the El Niño-Southern oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 24(7):779–782

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilcoxon F (1945) Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biom Bull 1:80–83. doi:10.2307/3001968

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Wang B (2008) What has changed the proposition of intense hurricanes in the last 30 years? J Clim 21:1432–1439

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu L, Zhao H (2012) Dynamically derived tropical cyclone intensity changes over the western North Pacific. J Clim 25:89–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xiang B, Wang B, Li T (2013) A new paradigm for the predominance of standing Central Pacific warming after the late 1990s. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1427-8

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie SP, Hu KM, Hafner J, Tokinaga H, Du Y, Huang G, Sampe T (2009) Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Pacific climate during the summer following El Niño. J Clim 22:730–747

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yokoi S, Takayabu YN (2013) Attribution of decadal variability in tropical cyclone passage frequency over the western North Pacific: a new approach emphasizing the genesis location of cyclones. J Clim 26:973–987

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yumoto M, Matsuura T (2001) Interdecadal variability of tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 79:23–35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhan R, Wang Y, Lei X (2011) Contributions of ENSO and east Indian Ocean SSTA to the interannual variability of Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone frequency. J Clim 24:509–521

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y, Wallace J-M, Battisti D-S (1997) ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J Clim 10:1004–1020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang R-H, Busalacchi A-J, Xue Y (2007) Decadal change in the relationship between the oceanic entrainment temperature and thermocline depth in the far western tropical Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 34:L23612. doi:10.1029/2007GL032119

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Liu Q, Wu L (2009) Tropical cyclone damages in China 1983–2006. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 90:489–495

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L, Wang C, Song Z, Lee S-K (2014) Remote effect of the model cold bias in the tropical North Atlantic on the warm bias in the tropical southeastern Pacific. J Adv Model Earth Syst 6:1016–1026

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Wu L, Zhou W (2010) Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific. Adv Atmos Sci 27(6):1361–1371

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Wu L, Zhou W (2011) Interannual changes of tropical cyclone intensity in the western north Pacific. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 89(3):243–253. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2011-305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Wu L, Wang R (2014a) Decadal variations of intense tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific during 1948–2010. Adv Atmos Sci 31(1):57–65. doi:10.1007/s00376-013-3011-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Chu P-S, Hsu P-C, Muarkami H (2014b) Exploratory analysis of extremely low tropical cyclone activity during the late season of 2010 and 1998 over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea. J Adv Model Earth Syst. doi:10.1002/2014MS000381

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank Dr. Kevin Walsh from University of Melbourne in Australia, Dr. Pao-Shin Chu from University of Hawaii in USA and Dr. Liguang Wu from Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology in China for discussion and comments on the early stage of this manuscript. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41305050, 41275093, 41375098, 41475091), the National Basic Research Program of China (2013CB430301, 2015CB452803), the Project of Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction under contract No. GASI-03-IPOVAI-04, the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office, and the base funding of NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the funding agency.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Earth System Modelling Center, Nanjing International Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

    Haikun Zhao

  2. NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA

    Chunzai Wang

Authors
  1. Haikun Zhao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Chunzai Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chunzai Wang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhao, H., Wang, C. Interdecadal modulation on the relationship between ENSO and typhoon activity during the late season in the western North Pacific. Clim Dyn 47, 315–328 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2837-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2837-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation