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What drives LGM precipitation over the western Mediterranean? A study focused on the Iberian Peninsula and northern Morocco

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Abstract

The evolution of precipitation is a key question concerning future climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean area which are currently prone to droughts. The influence of atmospheric circulation changes (in the mid-latitude westerlies or in the strength of the subtropical subsidence), along with changes in local mechanisms generating precipitation (such as convection) make it difficult to predict precipitation changes confidently over this area. Understanding its governing mechanisms is crucial. A possible approach is to test our understanding on different documented past climatic contexts. This paper focuses on the Last Glacial Maximum period (LGM) over the western Mediterranean region and puts in perspective the available information inferred from paleo-climatic records and the outputs of nine global climate models. We first review the available information on LGM precipitation in this region and find that the environmental conditions prevailing at this period range from humid to semi-arid, depending on the proxies. Model outputs from the PMIP3–CMIP5 database also yield a wide range of mean annual responses in this area, from wetter to drier conditions with respect to the pre-industrial period. This variety of responses allows to investigate the mechanisms governing LGM precipitation in the western Mediterranean area. Over the Iberian Peninsula and northern Morocco, most models simulate a larger amount of LGM precipitation in winter w.r.t. the pre-industrial period. This feature is mainly due to the large-scale effect of the southward shift of the North Atlantic jet stream, which is closely associated with the surface air temperature changes over the northwestern North Atlantic. In summer, precipitation changes mainly result from convection and are correlated to local surface air temperature anomalies, highlighting the key role of local processes. These contrasted changes in winter and summer, linked to different mechanisms, could explain the range of various signals derived from paleo-climatic archives, especially if the climatic indicators are sensitive to seasonal precipitation.

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Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. To analyze the CMIP5 data, this study benefited from the IPSL Prodiguer-Ciclad facility which is supported by CNRS, UPMC, Labex L-IPSL which is funded by the ANR (Grant ANR-10-LABX-0018) and by the European FP7 IS-ENES2 project (Grant 312979). Pauline Beghin received a grant from CEA and this work is supported by the Université Versailles Saint Quentin. The authors would like to thank Pradeebane Vaittinada for the explanation of the bootstrapping method and Dominique Genty for fruitful discussions about speleothems records. This work also benefited from productive exchanges with Catherine Ritz and Daniel Lunt. The authors are also very grateful to three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions that help to improve the writing of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l’environnement, IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR 8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    P. Beghin, S. Charbit, M. Kageyama, N. Combourieu-Nebout, C. Hatté, C. Dumas & J.-Y. Peterschmitt

  2. Département de Préhistoire, Muséum national d’histoire naturelle, Institut de Paléontologie Humaine, UMR 7194 CNRS “Histoire Naturelle de l’Homme Préhistorique”, Paris, France

    N. Combourieu-Nebout

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  1. P. Beghin
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  2. S. Charbit
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  3. M. Kageyama
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  4. N. Combourieu-Nebout
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  5. C. Hatté
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  6. C. Dumas
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  7. J.-Y. Peterschmitt
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Correspondence to S. Charbit.

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Beghin, P., Charbit, S., Kageyama, M. et al. What drives LGM precipitation over the western Mediterranean? A study focused on the Iberian Peninsula and northern Morocco. Clim Dyn 46, 2611–2631 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2720-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2720-0

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